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Best Home Run Odds & Picks Today: Sept. 9
By Daniel Destler in MLB Baseball
Published:
- Today’s formidable 14-game slate provides high-leverage opportunities for home run bettors to capitalize on vulnerable pitching.
- Yankee Stadium and Citizens Bank Park highlight a slate ripe with ballyhooed matchups in top-tier offensive environments.
- We break down the top volume power hitters and underdog value spots to target for tonight’s action.
Today’s 14-game MLB slate is loaded with opportunities for bettors targeting MLB home run props, with matchups like Astros-Phillies and Rockies-Yankees offering plenty of power upside. The broader MLB props board features both star sluggers and value longshots.
Ballpark context is key when betting homers, and today’s slate has several extremes across MLB park factors. Sutter Health Park, Yankee Stadium and Citizens Bank Park stand out as favorable power environments, while Oracle Park and loanDepot park remain tougher venues for fly-ball hitters.
Below, we break down the best home run odds and picks for Sept. 9, including a top Yankees target and a late-slate longshot.
Best Home Run Picks Today
Odds are subject to change and represent the best price available across the listed sportsbooks.
Aaron Judge (+198) — NY Yankees vs. COL Rockies
Judge is the shortest-priced power bat in Rockies-Yankees, with FanDuel hanging the best number at +198 and the consensus price sitting around +192. The market clearly rates him as the top homer candidate in this game, ahead of Ben Rice, Spencer Jones and the rest of the Yankees’ power options.
The research case starts with the matchup: Colorado is projected to start Tomoyuki Sugano, while Yankee Stadium has produced 2.67 home runs per game this season. That park context matters for a hitter with Judge’s pull-side loft, especially with cloudy, 82-degree conditions and a 14-mph SSW wind in the forecast.
Munetaka Murakami (+300) — CHI White Sox vs. PIT Pirates
Murakami is the top home run candidate on the Pirates-White Sox board, with FanDuel offering the best available price at +300 and the consensus closer to +291. That creates a clean value angle if you are targeting the most respected power bat in this matchup rather than chasing deeper longshots.
Rate Field supports the play. The venue ranks 11th in the current ballpark run environment, averaging 9.10 runs and 2.40 home runs per game. Pittsburgh is expected to start Lake Bachar, giving Murakami a direct path to early plate appearances against the listed probable starter.
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Kyle Schwarber (+265) — PHI Phillies vs. HOU Astros
Schwarber leads the Astros-Phillies homer market, with FanDuel at +265 and DraftKings close behind at +263. He is priced ahead of Yordan Alvarez in the same game, which shows how strongly the market respects Schwarber’s power profile in Philadelphia.
Citizens Bank Park is the key research point. It ranks ninth in runs per game this season and has produced 2.55 home runs per game across 73 games. Houston is projected to start Hunter Brown, and the game forecast calls for 86-degree overcast conditions with an 11-mph SSW wind.
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Shohei Ohtani (+230) — LA Dodgers vs. CIN Reds
Ohtani is the clear top power option in Reds-Dodgers, with FanDuel posting the best available home run price at +230. The consensus sits around +221, and no other hitter in this game is priced inside +390 at the best available number, giving Ohtani the strongest market signal of any bat in the late window.
Dodger Stadium is more neutral than some of the slate’s premium homer parks, but it has still produced 2.34 home runs per game this season. The weather helps the offensive case, with partly cloudy skies and a warm 93-degree forecast in Los Angeles. Cincinnati’s listed probable starter is Rhett Lowder, giving Ohtani the platoon and lineup-volume upside that keeps him at the top of the board.
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Yordan Alvarez (+300) — HOU Astros vs. PHI Phillies
Alvarez is the best plus-money alternative in the Astros-Phillies power market, with FanDuel listing +300 and the consensus at +301. He sits second only to Schwarber among hitters in this game, making him a strong add if you want exposure to both sides of the Citizens Bank Park power environment.
The same park factors that boost Schwarber apply here: Citizens Bank Park has averaged 9.45 runs and 2.55 home runs per game, both excellent indicators for home run props. Philadelphia is projected to start Cristopher Sánchez, and Alvarez’s elite left-handed power gives him enough raw ceiling to overcome a tougher same-side matchup.
Danny Destler is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A graduate of Marist University, Dan covers a wide range of sports topics, creating engaging and evergreen content for DFS enthusiasts and casual fans.
