NFL Week 3 Over/Under Picks – Predictions for Every Game from Model That’s +3.09 Units
By Sascha Paruk in NFL News
Published:
Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season delivers a slate packed with critical matchups. The action kicks off on Thursday, September 24, with the Atlanta Falcons visiting the Green Bay Packers on TNF and concludes with the Philadelphia Eagles visiting the Caleb Williams-less Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football.
Early betting action has already impacted the opening NFL Week 3 odds. In the totals market, Titans vs Giants plummeted from 43.5 to 40.5 after Jaxson Dart got injured on MNF, while Seahawks/Commanders fell from 41.5 to 39.5 due to Jayden Daniels dislocating his elbow. Vikings/Buccaneers also dropped from 44.5 to 42.5.
After running each game through SBD’s prediction model, I now have the top over/under bet for all 16 games. The table below summarizes the picks. Under the table, each pick is explained in more detail.
NFL Over/Under Picks for Week 3
These prices represent the best-available NFL odds at the time of publication.
My over/under picks went 10–6 in Week 1 (+3.091 units on one-unit wagers). I did not post Week 2 picks.
Falcons at Packers: Under 44.5 (-104 at Polymarket)
Backing the Under 44.5 in Green Bay aligns with key situational and environmental trends. Short-week Thursday night games between outdoor hosts and visiting dome teams historically produce low-possession slogs, as compressed preparation favors defenses over complex offensive schemes.
Since 2024, the Packers have yielded just 17.3 points per game at Lambeau Field. That home baseline matches up well against an Atlanta offense that has failed to record a single red zone possession this season, averaging 8.0 points per game with an anemic 23.1 percent third-down rate.
With Green Bay operating at a deliberate pace and converting only 19.0 percent of third downs, Matt LaFleur will likely deploy a ground-control script to shorten possessions and bleed the clock.
O/U Pick: Under 44.5
Chiefs at Dolphins: Over 45.5 (-108 at Kalshi)
Targeting the Over 45.5 capitalizes on Kansas City’s high-octane vertical attack and Miami’s ongoing defensive issues. The Chiefs are generating 32.0 points and an NFL-best 457.5 yards per game behind Patrick Mahomes, who already has five touchdown passes.
Kansas City’s scoring pace should overwhelm a Dolphins defense that surrendered 24.9 points per game in 2025 and 31.0 points per contest in 2026.
Even with Miami’s offense managing modest production under Malik Willis, Hard Rock Stadium’s warm conditions and rapid tempo create an ideal scoring backdrop. A standard Chiefs output alone puts this total in striking distance.
O/U Pick: Over 45.5
Panthers at Browns: Over 41.5 (-117 at Polymarket)
The Over 41.5 offers exceptional value by taking advantage of an artificially depressed total. Bryce Young has orchestrated a prolific early attack, producing 35.5 points and 409.0 total yards per game with six touchdown passes and a 70.0 percent red zone touchdown conversion rate.
Carolina’s uptempo scheme forces high-possession shootouts, while their own defense has surrendered 31.0 points and 419.0 yards per game.
Even against a conservative Cleveland offense that averaged 16.4 points in 2025, Deshaun Watson will see short fields and generous passing lanes. Carolina’s explosive play profile comfortably pushes this combined score past the low-40s barrier.
O/U Pick: Over 41.5
Titans at Giants: Under 40.5 (-113 at Kalshi)
Taking the Under 40.5 is a sound situational play on two run-heavy, possession-shortening offenses facing stout defensive fronts. Both Tennessee and New York enter this matchup ranking in the bottom quartile of the league in offensive production.
The Giants are generating 17.0 points per game, while the Titans manage just 15.0 points on 243.0 total yards. Tennessee has maintained conservative game plans to protect young passer Cam Ward.
With both teams leaning heavily on early-down rushing attacks and draining the play clock, scoring drives will require double-digit plays with minimal explosive potential. Points will come at a premium in a traditional East Coast trench battle.
O/U Pick: Under 40.5
Patriots at Jaguars: Under 45.5 (-113 at Kalshi)
The Under 45.5 offers strong value by fading a turnover-prone, low-ceiling New England offense traveling into an aggressive Jacksonville defense. Mike Vrabel’s Patriots feature a stout defensive identity, allowing just 8.0 points and 260.0 total yards per game in 2026.
New England continues to struggle for vertical traction under Drake Maye, averaging 15.0 points per game while committing four interceptions and converting a meager 33.3 percent of red zone trips into touchdowns.
Although Trevor Lawrence has guided Jacksonville to 23.5 points per game, the Jaguars’ own defense has conceded only 15.0 points per contest. With two top-ten scoring defenses dictating terms, this matchup projects well below the mid-40s.
O/U Pick: Under 45.5
Chargers at Bills: Over 49.5 (-108 at Kalshi)
Playing the Over 49.5 hinges on Buffalo’s relentless home scoring engine and Jim Harbaugh’s vulnerable road pass defense. Sean McDermott’s Bills have been an offensive powerhouse at Highmark Stadium, averaging 38.5 points and 427.5 total yards per game behind Josh Allen.
Buffalo’s defense has simultaneously shown vulnerability against dynamic perimeter weapons, allowing 31.0 points and 368.0 yards per game.
The Chargers have the passing firepower with Justin Herbert to capitalize in comeback mode, while their defense has surrendered 26.0 points per game on the road. When two franchise quarterbacks collide in Orchard Park with high play volume expected, 50 combined points is well within range.
O/U Pick: Over 49.5
Jets at Lions: Over 47.5 (-113 at Polymarket)
The Over 47.5 is one of the premier total plays on the board, driven by Detroit’s explosive indoor scoring combined with a leaky defense. Under Dan Campbell, the Lions produce 31.0 points per game behind Jared Goff, with their games averaging 66.5 combined points in 2026.
Detroit’s defense has hemorrhaged 35.5 points and 457.5 total yards per game, giving up massive chunk plays through the air.
That vulnerability plays directly into the hands of Geno Smith and a mistake-free Jets passing attack that is averaging 326.0 yards per game with zero turnovers. In the fast-paced, climate-controlled conditions of Ford Field, this game sets up as a classic four-quarter aerial shootout.
O/U Pick: Over 47.5
Texans at Colts: Over 43.5 (+104 at Kalshi)
Targeting the Over 43.5 in Indianapolis leverages an explosive divisional matchup inside the fast track of Lucas Oil Stadium. AFC South battles in dome conditions consistently produce high play volume, clean red zone execution, and accelerated tempo.
Indianapolis has been lethal in scoring territory, generating 26.5 points per game behind an 83.3 percent red zone touchdown conversion rate. Concurrently, the Colts’ defense has hemorrhaged an NFL-worst 37.0 points and 514.5 total yards per contest.
Facing Indianapolis’s compromised secondary, C.J. Stroud and the Texans’ passing attack (377.5 total YPG) should find ample scoring opportunities. With Indianapolis capable of matching scores in a fast-paced shootout, 44 combined points is a modest target.
O/U Pick: Over 43.5
Seahawks at Commanders: Over 39.5 (-113 at Kalshi)
Playing the Over 39.5 capitalizes on a sub-40-point market total that fails to account for Washington’s severe defensive vulnerabilities. Dan Quinn’s Commanders have surrendered 30.5 points and 325.0 yards per game in 2026 after conceding 26.5 points per contest throughout 2025.
Seattle’s offense has thrived under Drew Lock, generating 31 points in Week 2 while executing efficiently through the air with four touchdown passes and zero turnovers across two victories.
While Seattle’s defense has allowed just 8.5 points per game, Washington’s desperate, negative game scripts will force Jayden Daniels into aggressive aerial mode. Against one of the league’s leakiest defenses, Seattle’s scoring floor easily lifts this low total over the line.
O/U Pick: Over 39.5
Bengals at Steelers Under 42.5 (-104 at Polymarket)
Backing the Under 42.5 at Acrisure Stadium aligns with the brutal defensive nature of AFC North divisional battles. Mike Tomlin’s defenses historically thrive in low-scoring home grinds, holding opponents to just 16.5 points and 282.5 total yards per game through the first two weeks of 2026.
Pittsburgh’s offense continues to struggle for vertical explosiveness with Aaron Rodgers, managing an anemic 11.5 points and 249.5 total yards per game with only one passing touchdown on the season.
While Joe Burrow and the Bengals average 26.5 points per game, Cincinnati’s defense has stepped up significantly, allowing just 16.5 points per contest. With physical trench play and conservative play-calling dominating this rivalry, points will be at a premium.
O/U Pick: Under 42.5
Cardinals at 49ers: Under 47.5 (-113 at Kalshi)
Backing the Under 47.5 relies on San Francisco’s complete defensive dominance in division home games at Levi’s Stadium. Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers have yielded just 10.0 points and 287.0 yards per game this season, stifling opposing rushing attacks and forcing long-yardage situations.
Arizona’s offense continues to struggle for rhythm, generating only 16.5 points per game while converting under 30 percent of third downs on the road.
While Brock Purdy and the 49ers’ offense operate with pristine efficiency (31.0 PPG, 80.4% comp), San Francisco routinely controls second-half game flow with ground-heavy clock management when leading by multiple scores. Arizona will struggle to contribute enough points to threaten the high 40s.
O/U Pick: Under 47.5
Vikings at Buccaneers: Over 42.5 (+100 at Kalshi)
The Over 42.5 in Tampa Bay offers strong plus-money value in a matchup featuring one of the NFL’s most -vulnerable secondaries. Todd Bowles’ Buccaneers defense has surrendered 28.0 points per game in 2026 after conceding 24.2 points per contest in 2025.
Minnesota’s offense has capitalized on scoring chances, posting 24.0 points per game with an 80.0 percent red zone touchdown rate. Justin Jefferson and the Vikings’ passing attack create major structural mismatches against Tampa Bay’s blitz-heavy scheme.
Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers (23.0 PPG) possess the vertical perimeter playmakers to generate quick scoring strikes at Raymond James Stadium. In warm coastal weather, both units should trade enough red zone trips to clear 43 points.
O/U Pick: Over 42.5
Raiders at Saints: Over 43.5 (-108 at Kalshi)
Targeting the Over 43.5 at the Caesars Superdome aligns with the aggressive, fast-paced offensive profiles of both franchises. Dome environments in New Orleans historically boost passing efficiency, eliminate weather variables, and produce clean fourth-quarter scoring drives.
New Orleans has been an early-season revelation behind Tyler Shough, leading the NFL with 331.0 passing yards per game while piloting an attack that averages 27.0 points and 383.5 total yards.
The Raiders answer with 26.5 points per contest, fueled by Kirk Cousins’ six touchdown passes. With two high-volume passing games colliding on turf, this matchup projects as a fast-paced, back-and-forth aerial duel that sails past 44 points.
O/U Pick: Over 43.5
Ravens at Cowboys: Over 52.5 (-104 at Polymarket)
The Over 52.5 is the premier marquee total on the board, showcasing two top-tier franchise quarterbacks operating elite, high-tempo offensive schemes. Lamar Jackson has powered Baltimore to 29.0 points and 409.0 total yards per game on a blistering 10.0 yards per pass attempt.
Dallas responds with 28.5 points per game behind Dak Prescott, converting 85.7 percent of red zone trips into touchdowns with six passing scores.
Both defenses have shown vulnerability against dynamic passing units, with Dallas surrendering 24.0 points per game and Baltimore allowing 23.5. When two elite MVP-caliber signal callers trade possessions in a primetime environment, 53 combined points is well within range.
O/U Pick: Over 52.5
Rams at Broncos: Under 45.5 (-108 at Polymarket)
Taking the Under 45.5 is a strong fundamental play on Sean Payton’s stifling altitude defense facing a possession-shortening Los Angeles rushing attack. Denver held opponents to 18.3 points per game in 2025 and allows just 22.0 in 2026, ranking among the league’s best at limiting explosive pass plays.
Denver’s own offense continues to struggle for vertical consistency under Bo Nix, averaging just 15.0 points and 284.0 total yards per game.
The Rams manage only 17.5 points per game and rely heavily on Kyren Williams to control the clock and shorten the game. In the thin air of Empower Field at Mile High, two conservative game scripts will make scoring drives grueling and infrequent.
O/U Pick: Under 45.5
Eagles at Bears: Over 43.5 (+100 at Kalshi)
The Over 43.5 stands out as an exceptional plus-money opportunity for the Monday Night Football finale at Soldier Field. Chicago’s offense has erupted into one of the league’s most dynamic units, averaging 31.0 points and 424.5 total yards per game behind Caleb Williams.
Chicago’s defense has simultaneously surrendered 23.0 points and 362.0 yards per contest, creating consistently high-scoring, back-and-forth game scripts.
Philadelphia brings a potent balanced attack averaging 24.0 points and 329.5 yards per game behind Jalen Hurts. With both offenses boasting elite perimeter skill talent and explosive big-play potential, this Monday night clash should comfortably surpass the mid-40s threshold.
O/U Pick: Over 43.5
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
