NFL Week 3 Player Props: Over/Under Lines for Passing, Rushing & Receiving
By Sascha Paruk in NFL News
Published:
The full list of NFL player props have been released for Week 3, including passing, rushing, and receiving over/unders for all 16 games on the docket. This week features several marquee matchups that will test elite signal-callers, workhorse running backs, and target-hog wideouts.
The board offers a tantalizing assortment of plus-money opportunities. I have set out the full complement below in three distinct sections, along with the most-salient trends to guide your wagers.
Jump to Week 3: PASSING PROPS || RUSHING PROPS || RECEIVING PROPS
NFL Week 3 Passing Props: Top Quarterback Odds & Lines
All odds from BetMGM as of 11:42 am ET, Sep 23. Claim the BetMGM promo code to bet on Week 3 player props.
Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott commands the highest NFL passing yards props baseline at 264.5. On the opposite end, Atlanta Falcons signal-caller Michael Penix holds the lowest yardage total at 203.5. Passing touchdown lines are uniform across the league at 1.5, with Penix representing the sole exception at 0.5.
Tracking early week line movement reveals sharp action on Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert. Herbert opened at 215.5 yards, but early handle pushed his total up to 220.5. Conversely, bettors faded Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts, knocking his yardage total down four points.
When attacking these NFL passing TD odds and yardage lines, the data points to clear situational angles:
- Dak Prescott (Cowboys): Prescott clears the 264.5-yard threshold at a 70% clip (7 of 10) in recent games. The over (-115) carries a 53.5% implied probability and strong mathematical value.
- Drake Maye (New England Patriots): Operating out of negative game scripts, Maye eclipses 214.5 passing yards in 71.4% (5 of 7) of his starts as an underdog.
- Lamar Jackson (Ravens): The trends signal a fade on Jackson. He failed to exceed 239.5 passing yards in 83.3% of his last six starts.
- Justin Herbert (Chargers): Despite upward line movement, Herbert failed to break 222.5 passing yards in 70% (7 of 10) of his recent outings.
NFL Week 3 Rushing Props: Top Running Back Odds & Lines
Ravens bulldozer Derrick Henry tops the rushing yardage markets at 89.5 yards, signaling an expected ground-and-pound game script. Conversely, Green Bay Packers tailback Chris Brooks sits with a modest 16.5 yards. Oddsmakers anticipate heavy volume for Henry, Detroit Lions back Jahmyr Gibbs, and Eagles bell-cow Saquon Barkley, who all share a slate-high 18.5 attempts.
Market activity highlights massive adjustments for Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson, leaping from 34.5 to 41.5 yards based on sharp action. Cowboys back Javonte Williams saw his line plummet by four yards down to 59.5.
Historical backfield trends present the following betting angles:
- Bijan Robinson (Falcons): Robinson thrives on the road, surpassing 77.5 rushing yards in 75% (3 of 4) of his away contests.
- Saquon Barkley (Eagles): Barkley consistently hits his volume metrics in the NFL rushing yards props, clearing 75.5 rushing yards in four of his last seven matchups.
- Breece Hall (New York Jets): Fade Hall in this spot. He failed to exceed 57.5 rushing yards in 66.6% (4 of 6) of his last six games.
- Javonte Williams (Cowboys): Follow the downward line movement. Williams missed the 59.5-yard threshold in four straight games, averaging just 39.8 yards in that span.
NFL Week 3 Receiving Props: Top Wide WR & TE Odds
Cowboys wideout CeeDee Lamb commands a slate-high 84.5 receiving yards and an over/under of 7.5 receptions. Packers tight end Jonnu Smith sits at the bottom of the board with a baseline of just 8.5 yards.
Sharp bettors hammered Falcons receiver Drake London, pushing his opening yardage line from 60.5 up to 64.5. Dallas Cowboys pass-catcher George Pickens also took steady handle, moving his total from 57.5 to 59.5.
Consider these situational trends before placing your wagers:
- Sam LaPorta (Lions): The reliable tight end exceeded 45.5 NFL receiving yards props in four consecutive games.
- Garrett Wilson (Jets): Wilson stretches the field well away from home, clearing 61.5 receiving yards in four straight road games.
- Tee Higgins (Cincinnati Bengals): Higgins is a steady volume target, beating the 53.5-yard mark in four straight appearances.
- Jonnu Smith (Packers): Despite the low total, Smith presents massive situational value. He eclipsed 8.5 receiving yards in 83.3% (10 of 12) of his last games as a favorite.
- CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys): Fade the volume. Lamb failed to clear 7.5 receptions in an astounding 92.8% (12 of 13) of his recent games. This is recency bias from his eight-catch game in Week 2.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
