NFL Week 3 Upset Predictions: Target These Moneyline Underdogs
By Sascha Paruk in NFL News
Published:
Every NFL Sunday, the betting market inevitably misprices a handful of matchups, creating lucrative opportunities for those willing to look past public perception. My goal isn’t merely to find teams that can cover the spread; I am hunting for underdogs with the right situational advantages to win outright.
These picks are based on a nine-signal weighted underdog model. The Las Vegas Raiders stand out as this week’s premier selection with a High confidence rating, separating themselves from the pack via an undefeated start, a superior ground game, and a relentless pass rush.
The 16-game Week 3 slate features some massive disparities, headlined by the Miami Dolphins sitting as +550 longshots against the Kansas City Chiefs and the Arizona Cardinals catching +340 against the San Francisco 49ers. Neither of those big ‘dogs is among the top Week 3 upset picks, though.
NFL Week 3 Upset Predictions
These signals are strongest from Week 4 onward due to the lack of reliable data in the first three weeks of the season.
It’s been an awful start for the model’s underdog picks this season, going just 1-5 SU (-4.5 units on one-unit wagers) through the first two weeks, including an o-for in Week 2.
Top Underdog Pick: Raiders (+156) Over Saints
The Las Vegas Raiders hit five signals in this matchup, driven largely by their unblemished early-season form. Las Vegas boasts a superior win percentage and a more productive rushing attack than New Orleans (93.5 vs 78.0 rushing yards per game). The Raiders also protect the football efficiently, holding a clean turnover margin advantage (+2 vs -1). Defensively, Las Vegas presents distinct edges in rushing yards allowed per game (100.5 vs 136.5) and a better pass rush (4 vs 2 sacks per game).
The Raiders do not trigger the divisional signal, and their passing offense does not pose a major threat to the Saints’ pass defense (206.5 passing yards per game vs 204.0 passing yards allowed). The coaching metrics are also absent.
Backing the Raiders in the Superdome comes down to fundamental line-of-scrimmage advantages and a favorable situational setup. While New Orleans enters riding the wave of an emotional home stand, their offensive line continues to show pass-protection vulnerabilities against elite edge rushers. Maxx Crosby and the Raiders’ defensive front create havoc without needing to bring extra blitz pressure, allowing Las Vegas to keep seven in coverage and limit the intermediate passing windows that New Orleans relies on to sustain drives.
Offensively, the Raiders’ scheme is built to attack the Saints’ interior run defense, utilizing heavy personnel and a physical ground attack that controls time of possession and shortens the game on the road.
In low-possession environments, getting points with the underdog is inherently valuable. Furthermore, Las Vegas has proven remarkably resilient in this exact role, covering in four of their last five road games when catching more than a field goal.
Look for the Raiders’ defensive front to dictate the line of scrimmage, keep this contest within a single score, and give them a live shot to win outright in the fourth quarter.
Upset Pick #2: Steelers (+170) Over Bengals
The Pittsburgh Steelers trigger five signals in this matchup, anchored by their traditional home-field advantage and an elite defensive identity. Pittsburgh benefits from being a divisional underdog at home, an environment where Mike Tomlin’s defenses consistently overperform market expectations by muddying the pocket and dictating tempo.
On the defensive front, Pittsburgh captures the turnover margin signal on the forcing side (2.0 takeaways per game vs. 0.5 for Cincinnati) and the pass rush efficiency signal, generating 3.5 sacks per game against a Bengals protection unit that has already surrendered 3.0 sacks per contest. That interior and edge pressure should disrupt Joe Burrow’s timing before routes develop downfield.
While the Steelers hold the run defense signal (allowing just 74.5 rushing yards per game compared to Cincinnati surrendering 128.0), the most critical threshold is the scoring suppression signal – Pittsburgh allows just 16.5 points per game, tied for the fourth-best mark in the NFL.
The Steelers miss the win percentage signal (1-1 vs 2-0 for the undefeated Bengals), and their offense has sputtered out of the gate, averaging just 11.5 points per game. However, Pittsburgh’s aerial attack (204.0 passing yards per game) draws a favorable matchup against a vulnerable Cincinnati secondary allowing 253.5 passing yards per game, presenting a prime opportunity for intermediate explosive plays.
To win this AFC North grudge match outright, Pittsburgh must convert pressure into takeaways, lean on the run game to control possession, and drag Cincinnati into a classic black-and-blue brawl under 35 total points where a late field goal can decide it.
Upset Pick #3: Cowboys (+163) Over Ravens
The Dallas Cowboys trigger four signals in this neutral-site matchup at Maracanã Stadium in Rio de Janeiro, bringing one of the slate’s most-efficient scoring offenses to the table.
Ball security is central to Dallas’s viability, capturing the turnover margin signal (Signal 4) with just 0.5 giveaways per contest compared to 1.0 for Baltimore (while both defenses force 1.0 takeaway per game). Defensively, Dallas secures the pass defense volume signal (Signal 5), surrendering a respectable 218.0 passing yards per game against a Ravens aerial attack averaging 254.0.
When adjusted for context and game script, Dallas’s scoring defense (Signal 8) (24.0 points allowed per game) matches up competitively against Baltimore’s 29.0-point scoring output, giving the underdog a manageable ceiling to contend with.
Where Dallas truly separates itself from other underdogs is in its high-leverage offensive execution. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys have averaged 28.5 points per game through two weeks (fifth in the NFL) while operating at historic situational efficiency, converting a league-leading 68.0% of third downs with an NFL-best 85.7% touchdown conversion rate in the red zone.
Dallas ranks second league-wide at 3.80 points per drive, while their 66.7% scoring drive rate leads all underdogs on the Week 3 slate. While Baltimore’s defense remains formidable (23.5 points allowed), Dallas’s lethal red-zone potency provides a direct path to matching the Ravens blow-for-blow.
Dallas does miss several pivotal signals: their ground game ranks second-to-last in the NFL at just 67.5 rushing yards per game, and their pass rush has generated a modest one sack per game – two notable vulnerabilities against Baltimore’s balanced, Derrick Henry-led offense.
To secure the outright upset on Brazilian soil, Dallas must protect the football, sustain 60%+ third-down efficiency to control the tempo, and force the Ravens into empty possessions to let Prescott’s red-zone execution decide the outcome.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
