Parlay These NFL Player Props for 44-1 Odds – Advanced Metrics Favor These 4 Players in Week 3

Published: September 27, 2026 at 10:00 am EDT

Jahmyr Gibbs carrying the football — Sep 17, 2026; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs (0) warms up before the game against the Buffalo Bills at New Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

There are a number of advanced metrics that are great for predicting players who are going to rack up a lot of yardage vs their next opponent
This provides an opportunity to go beyond the standard player prop over/under, and bet these players at higher milestones for better odds
See the NFL player props I am parlaying for a big potential return in Week 3

When I make a good read in betting on sports, I like to make sure I am rewarded properly for doing so. Sticking with betting the standard over/unders for player props that come with at best -110 odds does not feel like the proper reward. That’s why I like to play bigger milestones, or alternate lines, which offer bigger payouts, and in this case, even parlay all those good reads together for a big-time potential payout.

That’s what I’m doing with this Week 3 NFL parlay that features four player prop alternate lines. I have gone deep into some advanced metrics to find players who are seeing tons of opportunity, but maybe have not capitalized on it to their full potential yet, and face opponents who are susceptible to their position. Here are the four players who check those boxes for me in Week 3:

Best Week 3 NFL Player Prop Parlay

Player (Pos, Team)	Opponent	The Pick (Alt Line)	Standard O/U Line
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, DET)	NYJ	100+ Rushing Yards	87.5
Chris Olave (WR, NO)	LV	90+ Receiving Yards	77.5
Tetairoa McMillan (WR, CAR)	CLE	80+ Receiving Yards	64.5
DK Metcalf (WR, PIT)	CIN	70+ Receiving Yards	51.5

The lines above are the consensus over/unders for the listed players. The milestones are priced very differently at every sportsbook and prediction market. I recommend checking out the current pricing for each of these at Polymarket, as they now offer player prop milestones and combos as well. If you’re not already trading with them, use our link to sign up at Polymarket now and claim our exclsuive promo.

The best odds for the full parlay at the time of publishing this article were +4467 at FanDuel.

You can check out all the standard over/unders over at our NFL player props tool.

Jahmyr Gibbs 100+ Rushing Yards

Though the Lions’ offensive line has not provided Jahmyr Gibbs with an optimal yards before contact metric – Gibbs is averaging 1.76, when I like to see 1.8+ – his explosive rush rate and volume are far too high to ignore.

Detroit’s lead back is seeing the following extremely positive metrics:

85.7% of Detroit’s 1st and 2nd down rush attempts
84.9% overall rush share
2.87 yards after contact per carry
31.1% broken tackle rate
20% explosive rush rate (10+)

Simply put, Gibbs is seeing tons of opportunity, is breaking tackles consistently, and often taking big chunks of yardage at a time. On top of those very impressive numbers, Detroit is operating with a 47.8% neutral-situation run rate.

Gibbs is preparing for a Jets defense on Sunday whose high-level numbers look pretty good. New York has allowed the fewest total yards in the NFL, and the second-fewest rushing yards.

However, if you (a) consider they have played two of the league’s worst offenses in the Titans and Packers, and (b) pull the curtain back a little on the numbers to look deeper into more advanced metrics, it’s not nearly as pretty. The Jets have allowed a 14.3% missed tackle rate on run plays, a 2.56 yards after contact per rush, and a 12.5% explosive rush rate (10+). This defense is ready to be gashed by one of the league’s most explosive players.

On top of that, Detroit listed as a 6.5-point favorite suggests we should see some late-game clock-killing drives out of the Lions, resulting in more opportunities for Gibbs.

Chris Olave 90+ Receiving Yards

I bet Chris Olave to record 90+ receiving yards in each of the first two weeks, which has gone 1-1, and I’m now making it three in a row. His over/under for receiving yards started at 75.5 in Week 1, lowered to 72.5 in Week 2, and now sits at 77.5 for his matchup with the Raiders in Week 3. Yet, Olave has recorded 182 and 86 receiving yards, respectively. Sportsbooks are not adjusting appropriately here, especially when you consider his advanced metrics.

Here’s how Olave ranks in some of the key metrics I like to consider:

121 unrealized air yards (top 10)
338 air yards (1st)
51.8% air yards share (1st)

Not only is Olave seeing tons of opportunity, but he’s seeing plenty of big opportunities. I typically screen for receivers seeing >35% air yards share, and he’s blowing that away. His WOPR (weighted opportunity rating) is 0.773, and I typically look for anything above 0.6. Olave is the opportunity king at wide receiver right now.

While he didn’t hit 90+ receiving yards last week, that came against a pretty good Ravens defense. The Saints take on the Raiders in Week 3. Though Las Vegas ranks 10th in passing yards allowed, they have faced two bad passing offenses so far in the Dolphins and Chargers. The Raiders have allowed the third-most pass attempts of 20+ air yards, and I believe they’re going to see a bunch more from Tyler Shough on Sunday, many of which will be headed in Olave’s direction.

Tetairoa McMillan 80+ Receiving Yards

This play involves putting trust in an offense I have typically not trusted over the past few years. But I am setting aside my bias and just focusing on what the underlying metrics say.

A lot of the attention in the Panthers passing game has gone towards Jalen Coker, but Tet McMillan has quietly racked up 114 unrealized air yards on a 40% total air yards share. His WOPR is 0.689 as he sees a 27.3% target share from QB Bryce Young. All of those numbers suggest a player who could go for 100+ receiving yards on any given week. But his line is still being set pretty low at 64.5, in spite of recording 75 and 101 yards in the first two weeks, respectively.

On top of the strong opportunity the second-year wide receiver is seeing, the Browns, who he will face on Sunday, have allowed the second-most pass attempts of 20+ air yards, and given up four deep completions for 132 yards. Cleveland’s defense is going to give Young opportunities to throw deep, and when he does, a good chunk of those opportunities will be targeting McMillan.

DK Metcalf 70+ Receiving Yards

Of the four player prop milestones I am betting in Week 3, this is the one where I have the least confidence, strictly because it is a firm positive regression play, which also relies on his QB. The Steelers offense has been bad through the first two weeks, and DK Metcalf has not helped them whatsoever. Aaron Rodgers looks like he should have retired. He’s not delivering the ball well and his ability to maneuver in the pocket and evade any pass-rushers seems gone.

On the bright side, Pittsburgh has played the Falcons and Patriots so far, which are two teams who are very good at applying pressure on the QB.

Flipping back to Metcalf, the wide receiver is seeing an extremely encouraging 45.9% total air yards share and a 0.706 WOPR, but he leads the NFL in unrealized air yards with 219 because he has dropped a few very catchable passes – his quarterback has not helped much either, as mentioned. This many unrealized air yards almost always results in positive regression.

The good news for Metcalf, and my bet, is that the Steelers play a Bengals defense who has allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game, eight pass attempts of 20+ air yards, and have only generated pressure on 22.8% of their opponent’s dropbacks – that’s worse than both the Falcons and Patriots this season. Here comes Metcalf’s breakout game.

Matt McEwan

Editor-in-Chief; Sports Betting Expert

With nearly a decade working in the industry, Matt is a seasoned sports betting veteran. He got his start with SBD in 2016 and worked his way up the ladder to become the Editor-in-Chief. Along the way he has done everything from reviewing sportsbooks to creating proprietary sports betting tools.

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