College Football Picks Today: Best Bets for Week 4 (Sep. 26)

• Saturday’s Week 4 schedule features major SEC and Big Ten tests
• Four selections cover the noon kickoff through Oregon vs USC in prime time
• Find my college football picks today, updated prices and matchup breakdowns below

Texas heads to Tennessee, Iowa visits Michigan and Oregon faces unbeaten USC on Saturday, September 26. Those road trips give Week 4 a strong slate from the noon window through prime time.

The early-season numbers need some care. Oregon is coming off an 84-0 win over Portland State, while Iowa just shut out Northern Iowa. Both performances were impressive, but Saturday brings much tougher opposition.

I’ve narrowed the board to four college football best bets, including three spreads and one total. The table lists my selections and prices, followed by the reasoning and risks behind each pick.

College Football Picks Today: Saturday Best Bets for Week 4

Odds checked September 25 at BetMGM. American prices are rounded from the displayed decimal odds.

Texas requires a win by six or more, while Oregon needs four or more to cash the spread; a three-point Ducks win pushes. Compare the latest college football odds before placing these individually, particularly if either favorite moves to a less attractive number.

Texas–Tennessee | Oklahoma–Georgia | Iowa–Michigan | Oregon–USC

College Football Pick #1: Texas vs Tennessee

Kickoff: Noon ET on ABC

I’m backing Texas because its passing production and third-down efficiency give it a way to sustain drives in Knoxville. Through three games, the Longhorns have thrown for 727 yards and converted 56.2% of their third downs. Tennessee has 635 passing yards and a 48.6% third-down rate over the same stretch.

Tennessee’s pressure is the concern. The Volunteers have 12 sacks, and their ground game has produced 896 yards. Texas cannot afford repeated negative plays that let Tennessee control possession and keep the game within a field goal.

The Longhorns beat UTSA 30-6 last week. I’m asking them to carry that defensive discipline into a much harder road assignment. At -5.5, I still prefer Texas, but I would reassess at a full touchdown.

Readers comparing alternatives in the state can check Texas prediction markets; those contracts have their own prices and are separate from this BetMGM spread.

• Pick: Texas -5.5 (-108 at BetMGM)

CFB Best Bet #2: Oklahoma vs Georgia Over/Under

Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN

I like Over 44.5 because Georgia gives this bet a strong scoring base. The Bulldogs have averaged 59.3 points through three games and scored 45 against Arkansas last Saturday. Their 62.1% third-down conversion rate has helped keep possessions alive.

Oklahoma is the reason this is no automatic over. The Sooners beat New Mexico 14-6 last week and are averaging 329.7 yards per game. A slow start from them could leave Georgia doing most of the work.

Still, 44.5 leaves room for a result such as 31-14. I prefer asking these offenses to reach 45 combined points to laying Georgia’s sizable spread. That is a modest target if Oklahoma contributes a couple of scoring drives.

• Pick: Over 44.5 (-108 at BetMGM)

College Football Pick #3: Iowa vs Michigan Spread

Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS

I’m taking Iowa +5.5. The Hawkeyes have allowed 4.3 points and 176.7 yards per game through three contests, leading the FBS in both categories. Those numbers will face a tougher test here, but they support a competitive game.

Michigan’s defense is strong too, allowing 220 yards per game. Its offense has averaged 323.3, making it harder to justify expecting separation. A low-possession game gives the underdog fewer scoring drives to match.

Iowa quarterback Hank Brown is making his first career road start, and Michigan has won the teams’ last four meetings. I respect those risks, which is why I prefer the points over an outright upset.

• Pick: Iowa +5.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

CFB Best Bet #4: Oregon vs USC

Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC

I’m laying the field goal with Oregon. Dante Moore has nine touchdown passes and no interceptions through three games. His ability to attack downfield without giving away possessions is the best part of the Ducks’ case.

USC has a serious answer in Jayden Maiava, who has completed 75.7% of his passes for 1,173 yards and 12 touchdowns through four games. The Trojans have scored in every quarter this season, so Oregon cannot count on an early lead being safe.

Oregon’s 84-0 win over Portland State inflates its averages. I put more weight on Moore’s efficiency and the program’s 16 conference road wins since Dan Lanning arrived in 2022. At -3, a field-goal win returns the stake; I would be more cautious at -3.5.

• Pick: Oregon -3 (-108 at BetMGM)

If you’re opening an account for Saturday’s games, check the current BetMGM promo code before making your selections. The four picks above are individual bets, not a required parlay.