NFL Week 4 Upset Predictions: Best Underdog Value on the Board
By Sascha Paruk in NFL News
Published:
Every Sunday, the NFL betting market inevitably misprices a few matchups, presenting lucrative opportunities for bettors willing to fade the public. The Week 4 slate features a full 16 games and a wide spectrum of moneylines. While it might be tempting to chase the week’s longest shots – like the Tennessee Titans (0-3) at +525 against the Baltimore Ravens (2-1) or the Miami Dolphins (0-3) at +475 against the Minnesota Vikings (3-0) – finding consistent value requires hunting for underdogs with the most realistic paths to winning outright.
Rather than throwing darts at massive double-digit spreads, the focus is elsewhere this week because that’s where the tried-and-test upset indicators are pointing.
These predictions are generated by a nine-signal weighted underdog model evaluating coaching mismatches, early-season form, and situational spots like divisional showdowns.
NFL Week 4 Upset Predictions
After an ugly first two weeks, the upset picks got on track in Week 3, hitting on two of three predictions: Raiders (+156) over Saints, and Steelers (+170) over Bengals. Only Dallas (+163 vs Baltimore) lost, on a last-second field goal no less.
For the season, my upset picks are now 3-5 SU and -2.26 units on one-unit wagers.
Upset Pick #1: Eagles (+133) over Rams
The Philadelphia Eagles anchor this week’s upset board as home underdogs at Lincoln Financial Field, firing on several core signals against Los Angeles.
Nick Sirianni owns one of the highest career winning percentages in modern NFL history at .684 (67–30), besting Sean McVay’s mark of .613 (103–65). More importantly, Sirianni has completely solved McVay head-to-head, boasting a perfect 4-0 all-time record against him—including a 28–22 playoff victory in the 2024 NFC Divisional round and a 33–26 triumph in 2025. Across those four meetings, Philly has averaged 30.3 points and 211.0 rushing yards per game.
Defensively, the Eagles have fortified the trenches, allowing just 93.7 rushing yards per game compared to the Rams’ 101.3 yards allowed.
MNF result against Chicago pending, Philadelphia (2-0) enters in sharp early-season rhythm, facing an LA squad that has stumbled out of the gate at 1–2 (.333).
Upset Pick #2: Falcons (+133) over Saints
The Atlanta Falcons trigger the model’s most predictive indicator this week: hitting Signal 1 as a short divisional underdog of three points or fewer. Atlanta compounds that high-leverage spot with a coaching mismatch, as Kevin Stefanski’s .439 career win percentage across 107 games outpaces Kellen Moore’s .350 mark through 20 games.
Atlanta’s clearest path to victory lies in the trenches, where they hold an overwhelming advantage on both sides of the ball. The Falcons enter averaging 173.0 rushing yards per game against New Orleans’ 101.3, spearheaded by Bijan Robinson (fresh off a 194-yard, 2-touchdown explosion in Week 3). On the other side, Atlanta’s defense has functioned as an impenetrable brick wall, surrendering an NFL-best 47.7 rushing yards per game (holding Green Bay to just 17 yards on the ground last week) compared to the Saints’ porous 128.7 yards allowed per contest.
Recent rivalry form also backs Atlanta: the Falcons swept New Orleans in 2025 – including a 24-10 road upset at the Caesars Superdome as short underdogs – and have claimed three of the last four meetings overall. While Atlanta misses the turnover signal (-2.00 turnover margin per game vs New Orleans’ -1.33) and the head coaches share no prior head-to-head history, the Falcons’ dominance at the line of scrimmage gives them the leverage needed to control the clock and cash the outright upset.
Upset Pick #3: Jaguars (+127) over Bengals
The Jacksonville Jaguars head into Paycor Stadium hitting a distinct cluster of statistical and coaching signals. Liam Coen carries a .714 career win percentage through his first 21 games, offering a stark edge over Zac Taylor’s .472 mark across 126 contests. The Jaguars also hit both sides of the ground game signal, producing 119.3 rushing yards per game to Cincinnati’s 91.3, while allowing slightly fewer rushing yards defensively (91.3 vs 95.7).
Jacksonville’s biggest situational edge lies in down-and-distance execution: the Jaguars lead the NFL with a 52.9% third-down offense while holding opponents to just 29.0% on third downs, compared to Cincinnati’s 43.6% defensive conversion rate. Furthermore, Jacksonville claims the crucial turnover margin signal (+1.33 differential per game over Cincinnati’s +0.67) and yields just 1.33 sacks per game behind a disciplined offensive line.
While Taylor leads Coen 1-0 head-to-head and Cincinnati averages 3.33 sacks per game defensively, Jacksonville’s +15.3 net scoring margin and efficiency in high-leverage downs give them all the tools needed to pull off the road upset.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
