Best NFL Player Prop Parlay for Week 4 – Wilson & More Primed for Big Games

• There are specific advanced statistics that serve as great signals for players who are primed for big performances
• I found four players who are enjoying plenty of opportunity in their respective offenses, and are in good situations against the defenses they see in Week 4
• See the four players I am parlaying to have big games in Week 4 for +3258 odds

I am a firm believer in ensuring you hit the sportsbooks hard when you have made a good read. This is why I am not betting the standard player prop over/unders on these four players, who are all showing strong signals to have big games, in Week 4. Instead, I am taking alternate lines that are higher than their standard lines, and come with bigger potential payouts.

I screened every player on the board to see if: (a) they are performing close to the full potential their current opportunity affords them, (b) they find themselves against defenses susceptible to giving up yards to their position, and (c) their NFL player props aren’t listed too close to their ceiling. These four players passed all three of those categories with flying colors.

Week 4 NFL Player Prop Parlay

While I am betting each of these as singles as well, the main purpose is to parlay these four player prop milestones for a shot at a big potential payout. A $10 bet on this NFL player prop parlay stands to profit $325.80 – or 32x your wager, if you prefer.

Keep in mind, this was the best price I could find at the time of writing this article, and it came at FanDuel. Be sure to shop for the best price at the time of reading it, especially if you’re much later than the listed publish time above, which now includes checking what this “combo” contract would cost at prediction markets. Not only do they allow player prop milestones, but their “combo” option allows you to parlay as well. You can sign up at Kalshi now to put in a bid.

Let me dive into why I like each of the four legs in my NFL player prop parlay for Week 4.

James Cook III 100+ Rushing Yards

• Week 4 Opponent: New England Patriots (17th vs Run)
• Standard Rushing Over/Under: 87.5

James Cook III to rush for 100+ yards is the first leg of my NFL parlay. Cook has been one of the most explosive rushers through the first three weeks, benefitting from solid push from his offensive line, while also making tacklers miss at a good rate.

The Bills’ offensive line is affording Cook 3.28 yards before contact, and he is averaging 2.69 yards after contact on each carry. Those two metrics combine for a very strong 5.97 yards per carry average, and make it easy to believe he leads all starting running backs in big-play volume with 12 carries that have gone for 10+ yards (20.7% of attempts), and four that have gone for 20+ (6.9%).

Sign Up for SBD’s Newsletter Now

Did you want the latest sports betting news, analysis, picks, betting trends, and relevant data straight to your inbox? If so, you’ll want to subscribe to SBD’s newsletter now!

Having trouble seeing the signup form? Some privacy or ad-blocking tools can prevent it from loading. You can subscribe directly here.

When you combine that elite efficiency with great volume – Cook handles 69.6% of Buffalo’s early-down carry share and averages 19.3 carries per game – the result is a running back averaging 115.3 rushing yards per game, and has cleared 100 yards in two of three (135 and 154 over the last two weeks, respectively).

But this pick isn’t just the result of strong signals in favor of Cook. The Patriots defense he is preparing for is having their troubles defending the run too. New England ranks 17th against the run, which would suggest they’re mediocre, but they are allowing the fourth-highest yards after contact in the NFL, and their missed tackles allowed rate is 16%.

The icing on the cake here is the Bills laying seven points in the game. This suggests the Bills will find themselves with a lead, looking to slow the game down and keep the clock running.

Kenneth Walker III 100+ Rushing Yards

• Week 4 Opponent: Las Vegas Raiders (21st vs Run)
• Standard Rushing Over/Under: 85.5

The second leg of my parlay is Chiefs RB Kenneth Walker III to rush for 100+ yards. Though Walker is not getting the same help from his offensive line as Cook is, it doesn’t appear he needs much help. Walker firmly checks all of the boxes of an explosive back:

1. NFL-high 303 yards after contact (4.66 yards after contact per carry)
2. Insane 52.3% missed tackles forced rate (34 missed tackles forced on 65 carries, 10 broken tackles)
3. 15.4% explosive rush rate (10 runs of 10+ yards)
4. True workhorse, handling 72% of early-down carries

For all of these reasons, I am surprised sportsbooks are still listing the NFL’s current rushing leader with an over/under of 85.5 for Week 4, when he has easily cleared 100 yards in two of three, as he prepares to take on the Raiders.

Las Vegas ranks 21st against the run, and allows just 1.69 yards before contact but 2.78 yards after contact per carry.

In what projects to be a relatively close game (KC -4.5), Andy Reid is going to lean on his workhorse to ensure his Chiefs continue to break away from the rest of their AFC West foes, and I need to see someone stop Walker before I believe it can be done.

Michael Wilson 70+ Receiving Yards

• Week 4 Opponent: New York Giants (18th vs Pass)
• Standard Receiving Over/Under: 56.5

The third leg of my NFL player prop parlay is Michael Wilson to record 70+ receiving yards. While many believed Marvin Harrison Jr would be the wide receiver to breakout in Arizona this year, it has clearly been Wilson.

The fourth-year receiver is seeing an elite 0.706 WOPR, thanks to his 42.1% air yards share and 27.4% target share through the first three weeks. Wilson has seen at least seven targets in each game, with an incredible 17 going his way against the 49ers last week.

His 173 unrealized air yards is also encouraging, as it highlights the fact that there’s plenty more meat on the bone for Wilson.

While I don’t believe the Giants, his Week 4 opponent, will put Arizona’s offense in the same state of urgency San Francisco’s explosive offense did last week, Wilson doesn’t need that type of volume to have a big week. The G-Men rank 18th against the pass, but have allowed the sixth-most attempted deep passes (20+ air yards). Teams have obviously felt comfortable pushing the ball downfield against them.

On top of that, New York will be without pass-rusher Brian Burns, who tore his ACL last week, softening the pressure they’ll be able to bring against Jacoby Brissett.

Chris Olave 90+ Receiving Yards

• Week 4 Opponent: Atlanta Falcons (29th vs Pass)
• Standard Receiving Over/Under: 84.5

The final leg of my player prop parlay is Chris Olave, which is a very familiar one to anyone who has been reading along this season. I have bet Olave every single week, and he has cashed two of three for me.

I have been starting to wonder when sportsbooks would wake up to Olave’s new opportunity and standard production. While they have increased his over/under for receiving yards nearly 10 yards week-over-week, it’s still not enough.

Here are three reasons Olave is still worth betting at his elevated prop line:

1. Olave’s WOPR = 0.779 (49.1% air yards share & 29% target share)
2. He has 178 unrealized air yards
3. Atlanta has allowed the most attempted deep passes (20+ air yards) in the NFL

It is insane that Olave is seeing just shy of half New Orleans’ total air yards, and almost a third of their total targets. I understand those numbers could be a little misleading in an offense that doesn’t throw the ball much, or doesn’t run that many plays per game. But that’s not the case with the Saints.

Olave has seen double-digit targets in all three games, and has converted those opportunities into 375 receiving yards, where his worst game saw him record 86 yards.

I like this bet even more now that Atlanta has Michael Penix Jr under center, who proved he’s a far superior option to Cooper Rush and Jack Strand. The Falcons are capable of putting up points now, which will help ensure Kellen Moore’s offense remains aggressive.

KALSHI TRADING

Offer

T&Cs

Trade $25 at Kalshi & Get a Bonus Up To $2,000!

Must be 18+ years or older & residing in the United States. Other Terms & Conditions may apply.

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: RAD2000

CODE: RAD2000

SIGNUP TODAY

GET A BONUS
UP TO $2,000

GET OFFER