Player Props & Picks for Aces vs Valkyries (Game 2, Oct 7)
By Ryan Potts in WNBA
Published:
- Golden State leads Las Vegas 1-0 in the best-of-five WNBA Semifinals
- The Valkyries embarrassed the Aces on the glass in Game 1 (52-25)
- See expert picks and best bets for Aces vs Valkyries for Game 2
The stakes are monumental heading into Game 2 of this best-of-five WNBA semifinal between the Golden State Valkyries and Las Vegas Aces. Golden State holds a 1-0 edge after grinding out a 71-60 win in the opener, putting the pressure squarely on Las Vegas to avoid a devastating 0-2 deficit before the series shifts to Michelob ULTRA Arena.
These two powerhouses were virtually inseparable during the regular season, finishing #2 and #3 in the standings at 32-12 (Golden State) and 31-13 (Las Vegas). While the Valkyries built their success on the league’s premier defense (75.1 PPG allowed), the Aces leaned on a league-leading offense (91.5 PPG).
While Golden State took round one, the regular-season head-to-head tells a different story. Las Vegas won all three meetings (91-81, 84-79, 92-73), proving their explosive offense can crack Golden State’s defensive shell. As Las Vegas looks to knot the series, monitor the status of Dana Evans, whose knee injury leaves a key question mark in the Aces’ rotation.
Valkyries vs Aces Picks & Predictions
Moneyline Pick: Golden State (51 / -104 at Kalshi)
I lean Valkyries moneyline (51¢ / -104 at Kalshi) but this is a measured play rather than a high-confidence call: Golden State’s case rests its considerable advantage on the glass.
Las Vegas swept the three regular-season meetings but those were all ancient history at this point; all three games were in May or June, when the Valkyries strolled to a 10-7 record. After losing 92-73 at Las Vegas on June 21st, Golden State went a sublime 22-5 the rest of the way.
The Valkyries’ Game 1 rebounding edge – 52-25 overall, including an absurd 17-2 on the offensive glass – gave Golden State extra possessions and helped produce a 20-2 advantage in second-chance points.
If the Valkyries come close to that effort in Game 2, they can offset the Aces’ more productive regular-season offense. The key question is whether Las Vegas can improve its work on the boards; its 91.5 points per game in the regular season show why Golden State cannot rely on another low-scoring result alone.
Game-Total Pick: Under 157.5 (53¢ / -113 at Polymarket)
The Under 157.5 at -115 is a lower-confidence lean, not a second strong recommendation. Game 1 finished with 131 points, and the teams allowed 75.1 and 85.8 points per game in the regular season, but their combined scoring averages were 173.7. That season-long scoring baseline makes the Under vulnerable if the Aces’ offense returns to form; consider passing rather than treating one defensive opener as a dependable trend.
The opener was a poor-shooting game: Golden State made 38 percent of its field goals and Las Vegas 34 percent. Those figures explain the low total, but they are a small sample and should not outweigh the broader regular-season scoring picture. For Golden State to cover, the most repeatable path is to sustain its rebounding and second-chance advantage while limiting the Aces’ transition and interior scoring.
Game 1 Stats
Looking at the statistics from the series opener, I am relying on Golden State’s interior dominance. The Valkyries more than doubled-up the Aces on the glass, yanking down 52 total rebounds to Las Vegas’ 25. Controlling the boards fueled a massive edge down low, where Golden State outscored Las Vegas 34-18 in the paint.
Despite being overwhelmed inside, the Aces did showcase superior ball security. Las Vegas committed just six turnovers while forcing 13 giveaways from Golden State. The Aces also snagged nine steals defensively. Unfortunately for Las Vegas, they simply could not capitalize on those extra bites at the apple due to poor shooting against a stifling Valkyries defensive front.
On an individual level, Gabby Williams set a commanding tone for Golden State. She stuffed the stat sheet with 25 points, 11 rebounds, and five assists. A’ja Wilson tried to counter for the Aces, scoring a team-high 24 points. However, Wilson struggled with her efficiency, shooting just 8-for-21 from the field. I will be watching the player prop boards closely as tip-off approaches.
Player Prop Pick: A’ja Wilson to Score 25 Points (-145, BetMGM)
One of the most decorated basketball players of all time, I will happily back A’ja Wilson to score a modest (by her standards) 25 points. tonight. She has hit this mark in 18 of her last 38 playoff games, including Game 1 and Game 3 in the opening series. In gotta-have-it spots, there is perhaps no basketball player alive I trust more than Wilson to pull for her squad.
Aces vs Valkyries Game 2 Odds
Odds as of October 7 at 4:30 PM ET at BetMGM.
The betting markets reveal a tight matchup, but shopping for the best price remains crucial. BetMGM opened Golden State at -115 on the moneyline before shifting to -120, while Las Vegas moved from -105 to an even +100. However, the best moneyline value for Golden State sits at Kalshi, where a 51¢ contract implies a much friendlier -104 price tag.
Based on the current BetMGM moneyline prices, Golden State holds an implied win probability of 54.55 percent, while Las Vegas sits at 50 percent. When I remove the sportsbook’s vig, the normalized win probabilities settle at 52.2 percent for the favored Valkyries and 47.8 percent for the Aces. Removing the juice is a vital step in understanding the true market expectations.
If you place a $10 moneyline wager on the underdog Aces at +100 odds, it yields a total payout of $20.00, meaning a clean $10.00 profit. Conversely, that same $10 bet on the favored Valkyries at the -120 BetMGM price returns a total payout of $18.33, netting you an $8.33 profit. Both the 1.5-point spread and 157.5-point total have stayed locked at their opening numbers.
Ryan Potts is a veteran football and baseball content creator. He was previously a credentialed NFL media member, covering the draft, combine, and Super Bowl. He has been featured on Atlanta sports talk radio and Arizona student radio. Ryan is a journalism graduate from the University of Arizona.
