Valkyries vs Aces Predictions, Odds & Lines for Game 3
By Chris Amberley in WNBA
Published:
- The Valkyries are a 3.5-point underdog to the Aces in Game 3 of their WNBA series tonight
- Golden State leads the series 2-0, and is a great bet against the spread catching 3.5 points
- See the Valkyries vs Aces Predictions, Odds & Lines for Game 3, below
Entering a do-or-die Game 3, the Las Vegas Aces (31-13, 15-7 home) are slight home favorites against the Golden State Valkyries (32-12, 15-7 away) in Game 3 of the best-of-five WNBA semifinals. Tip-off is set for 6:30 pm PT (9:30 pm ET) tonight at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas with Peacock/NBCSN providing national broadcast coverage.
The Valkyries have combined rebounding, timely scoring from Gabby Williams and Tiffany Hayes, and late-game execution to take both games. Las Vegas will have home court for Game 3, but it must solve Golden State’s physicality and keep its offense from going cold for long stretches. Keep reading for my Valkyries vs Aces Predictions, Odds & Lines for Game 3, below.
Valkyries vs Aces Predictions for Game 3
ATS Pick: Golden State +3.5 (+104 / 49¢ at Kalshi)
Golden State is not merely keeping games close: it has won both, 71–60 and 83–81, despite being listed as the road underdog for Game 3. The Valkyries have outscored Las Vegas by 13 total points in the series, and now boast the second shortest WNBA championship odds.
The clearest matchup advantage has been the glass. Golden State outrebounded Las Vegas 52–25 in Game 1, including a 17–2 edge in offensive rebounds. Game 2 was more balanced – 30–25 in rebounds – but Golden State still created extra chances with 10 offensive boards to Las Vegas’ six.
That first-game margin is too large to expect every night, but it shows how the Valkyries can pressure the Aces even when their half-court offense stalls. Golden State’s playoff team average of 36.8 rebounds per game also tops Las Vegas’ 29.
The scoring leaders give the underdog a reliable base. Gabby Williams is averaging 24 points in the postseason and scored 25 in Game 1 and 20 in Game 2. Tiffany Hayes added 21 off the bench in Game 2 after scoring 3 in the opener, giving Golden State a second player who can swing a close game.
Las Vegas has its own star power: newly-minted four-time WNBA MVP A’ja Wilson is averaging 28.8 points and 9.2 rebounds in the playoffs and scored 24 in each of the first two games. Still, Wilson’s production has not yet translated into an Aces win, and the team has scored just 60 and 81 points.
There are real risks to backing Golden State on the road. The Aces went 15–7 at home in the regular season, and their postseason offense has been more productive overall than the two-game series output suggests.
Las Vegas also has playmaking advantages: Jackie Young averaged 7 assists in the playoffs, while Chelsea Gray averaged 5.8.
But the Valkyries’ 28-21 ATS record (57.1%) is stronger than Las Vegas’ 26-23 mark (53.1%), and the series results make +3.5 the more appealing side. New users can grab the Kalshi promo code for a bonus to use on tonight’s contest.
Game-Total Pick: Under 156.5 Points (+104 / 49¢ at Kalshi)
The first two games produced 131 and 164 total points, an average of 147.5, which is nine points below the O/U for Game 3.
The opener was particularly defensive: Las Vegas shot 34% from the field and Golden State shot 38%, with the Aces held to 60 points. Game 2 went over the number, but its 164 points came in a two-point game in which Las Vegas made 23 of 26 free throws and both teams shot better from the field than in the opener. That higher-scoring result is a caution, not a reason to ignore the broader series scoring pattern.
The season context also favors a lower total. Las Vegas averaged 91.5 points per game and Golden State 82.2 in the regular season, but neither has approached its own average across the first two meetings.
Golden State’s games went Under in 57.1% of its listed regular-season totals (21–28 to the Over), while Las Vegas was nearly even, with 25 Overs and 24 Unders. The series’ 147.5-point average is the strongest game-specific signal; the small sample and the possibility of another close finish—with late fouls—are the main reasons to keep this to a measured lean. Before making any wager, scan the best prediction market apps to find the top price.
Valkyries vs Aces Series Breakdown
The two-game series averages show why the matchup has been so competitive: Golden State has controlled the boards and scored more, while Las Vegas has protected the ball better and produced more assists. The Valkyries’ 41 rebounds per game in the series are driven in part by their 52-board Game 1; the more modest 30–25 advantage in Game 2 is a better reminder that the rebounding gap can narrow. Even so, Golden State’s extra possessions and strong work from Kiah Stokes (9.4 rebounds per playoff game) remain important pressure points for the Aces.
Las Vegas has enough offensive talent to respond. Wilson leads the Aces at 28.8 playoff points per game, while Young averages 19 points and 7 assists. Gray’s 16.4 points and 5.8 assists give the team another creator. For Golden State, Williams’ 24 points per playoff game and 4.2 assists have anchored the attack; Hayes averages 13.8 points, and Veronica Burton adds 9.8 points and 4 assists. These postseason rates cover a short stretch, so they describe current roles rather than guarantees for Game 3.
Valkyries vs Aces Odds & Lines for Game 3
Odds listed as of October 9 at BetMGM. Sign up with the BetMGM promo code and get in on the action.
At the listed moneyline prices, Las Vegas is the favorite and Golden State the underdog. A $10 wager at -175 would return $15.71 in total, including the stake, if the Aces win; a $10 wager at +145 would return $24.50 if the Valkyries win.
The spread has been bet down from 4.5 to 3.5 points, while the moneyline and total prices also changed from their opening figures. A line move does not predict the result, but it’s a good indication that enough money is coming in on that side to force oddsmakers to adjust.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
