Anytime TD Picks & Props to Bet in Saints vs Giants (Oct 18)
By Ryan Potts in NFL News
Published:
- I like Chris Olave to cash in for his second touchdown of the season
- On the Giants side, expect Malik Nabers to have a strong outing
- Keep reading for my Saints vs Giants anytime TD picks and props to bet
The New York Giants (3-1-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U) host the New Orleans Saints (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U) at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, on October 18, with kickoff set for 1:00 PM ET on FOX.
This Week 6 showdown offers compelling narrative contrast, pitting John Harbaugh’s resilient Giants squad against Kellen Moore’s reeling Saints team searching for answers after dropping four of their first five games.
I will break down the most actionable NFL props, analyzing recent performances and usage trends to uncover the best sports betting picks for this matchup.
Giants vs Saints Player-Prop Lines
The passing props market positions Tyler Shough with a higher yardage total (238.5) than Jameis Winston (223.5). The over odds for Winston’s 19.5 completions shifted from -110 at opening to -115.
Passing Props
Shough’s 23.5 completions over odds moved from -110 to +100. New Orleans has accumulated 1,201 passing yards this season compared to just 409 rushing yards, setting the stage for passing volume from Shough in this matchup.
NFL Rushing & Receiving Props
Receiving totals have seen upward movement since opening lines were released. Isaiah Likely’s receiving yards bumped from 48.5 to 50.5, and his receptions total increased from an open of 4.5 to 5.5.
On the Saints’ side, Chris Olave’s yardage ticked up to 78.5 from 77.5, and Juwan Johnson’s rose to 40.5 from 39.5. This movement aligns with the Saints’ offensive production, as they outpace the Giants in both points per game (23.2 to 21.4) and total passing yards.
NFL Touchdown Props
Cameron Skattebo boasts the shortest anytime touchdown odds (-109) after opening at -105. Isaiah Likely saw significant movement in the anytime market, shortening from +245 to +184.
For New Orleans, Chris Olave’s first touchdown scorer odds slightly shortened from +850 to +825. New Orleans holds an 81.2% red zone conversion rate, completing 13 of 16 attempts. This high efficiency influences the shorter odds for primary Saints targets near the goal line compared to the Giants, who convert at a 64.3% clip.
Giants vs Saints Player Betting Trends
- Tyler Shough: Tyler Shough has failed to exceed 10.5 rushing yards in 3 of his last 5 games (14.4 rushing yards/game average).
- Jameis Winston: Jameis Winston has failed to exceed 1.5 passing touchdowns in 6 of his last 7 games at home (0.6 passing touchdowns/game average).
- Alvin Kamara: Alvin Kamara has failed to exceed 23.5 rushing yards in 4 of his last 5 games (19.4 rushing yards/game average).
- Cam Skattebo: Cam Skattebo has exceeded 11.5 receiving yards in 3 of his last 4 games (19.8 receiving yards/game average).
- Chris Olave: Chris Olave has exceeded 79.5 receiving yards in 4 straight games when favored by fewer than 7 points (122.5 receiving yards/game average).
- Malik Nabers: Malik Nabers has exceeded 5.5 receptions in 3 of his last 4 games as an underdog by fewer than 7 points (6.0 receptions/game average).
Best Player Prop Bets for Saints vs Giants
When building a betting card for this Week 6 clash, identifying individual performance patterns is crucial. Based on situational splits and recent output, here are the top player props I am targeting.
Pick: Chris Olave 80+ Receiving Yards (+100/ 50¢ at Kalshi)
I am targeting Chris Olave to clear his receiving yardage line based on a specific situational split. Chris Olave has exceeded 79.5 receiving yards in 4 straight games when favored by fewer than 7 points (122.5 receiving yards/game average).
New Orleans enters MetLife Stadium as 1.5-point favorites, setting up this exact situational split. Furthermore, the Giants allow 209.6 passing yards per contest. The opportunity should be there for Olave to clear this number, making this an appealing look among the NFL receiving yards props.
Pick: Alvin Kamara UNDER 23.5 Rushing Yards (-104 / 51% at Novig) – CLAIM SBD’S EXCLUSIVE NOVIG PROMO CODE TODAY
The numbers point toward a lighter output for Alvin Kamara on the ground. Alvin Kamara has failed to exceed 23.5 rushing yards in 4 of his last 5 games (19.4 rushing yards/game average).
This trend aligns cleanly with his current prop line of 23.5. While the Giants yield 127.6 rushing yards per game to opposing offenses, Kamara’s individual production history makes me comfortable backing the under on his NFL rushing yards props.
Pick: Malik Nabers 6+ Receptions (-113 / 53¢ at Kalshi)
Malik Nabers finds himself in a favorable situational spot for volume. Malik Nabers has exceeded 5.5 receptions in 3 of his last 4 games as an underdog by fewer than 7 points (6.0 receptions/game average).
As a 1.5-point home underdog, this game script fits his historical production perfectly. With the Saints allowing 228.2 passing yards per game, Nabers is positioned to see the target share required to cash this over.
Pick: Chris Olave Anytime Touchdown (+156 / 39¢ at Kalshi)
I also want a piece of the touchdown market for this matchup. New Orleans holds an excellent 81.2% red zone conversion rate, completing 13 of 16 attempts this season.
This high efficiency makes Chris Olave an attractive option to find the end zone. Instead of taking his +145 odds at traditional sportsbooks, I am playing his anytime touchdown prop at 39¢ on Kalshi for a better potential payout.
Giants vs Saints Injury Report
The Saints’ offensive game plan hinges on the final status of Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave. Olave missed practice due to an illness, which puts his receiving props in jeopardy. If he sits, Devaughn Vele and Juwan Johnson will be thrust into larger roles.
Similarly, a limited Kamara could force Kendre Miller into an expanded rushing workload against the Giants.
New York’s primary offensive weapons avoided major practice limitations. The Giants’ vulnerabilities lie in their secondary. With cornerbacks Colton Hood out of practice and Greg Newsome II limited, backup Nikko Reed could see significant snaps. This banged-up secondary bodes well for Tyler Shough’s passing props.
New Orleans Saints vs New York Giants Odds
- Moneyline: Saints -114 / Giants -105
- Spread: Saints -1 (-105) / Giants +1 (-114)
- Total: 46 (Over -108 / Under -111)
Odds from BetMGM.
The Saints enter MetLife Stadium as slight road favorites, laying a single point on the spread. The closely contested moneyline reflects an expected tight matchup, giving New Orleans a narrow edge at -114 compared to the Giants at -105 on the NFL odds board. Bettors are anticipating a moderate amount of scoring, with the full-game total currently set at an even 46 points.
Ryan Potts is a veteran football and baseball content creator. He was previously a credentialed NFL media member, covering the draft, combine, and Super Bowl. He has been featured on Atlanta sports talk radio and Arizona student radio. Ryan is a journalism graduate from the University of Arizona.
