76ers vs Knicks Picks, Props & Betting Splits for Opening Night (Oct 20)
By Ryan Potts in NBA Basketball
Published:
- The Knicks host the 76ers at Madison Square Garden on October 20
- The Knicks went 37-12 at MSG last season (including playoffs
- Continue reading for my 76ers vs Knicks picks and prop bets
Opening night at The World’s Most Famous Arena never disappoints, and this is the first time for the Knicks faithful to serenade a champion since 1973. Tuesday’s primetime spotlight belongs to a bitter Atlantic Division rivalry as the New York Knicks host the Philadelphia 76ers at Madison Square Garden. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:00 PM ET, broadcast live nationally on NBC and Peacock.
The defending-champion Knicks are 4.5-point home favorites and showcase a good deal of continuity from last year’s title team, led by Finals MVP Jalen Brunson and big man Karl-Anthony Towns. The Sixers counter with a revamped lineup headlined by LeBron James and Jaylen Brown, who join the incumbent Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey.
From rotational usage spikes to closing-line edges, here is your complete betting guide and analytical breakdown for 76ers vs. Knicks on opening night.
76ers vs Knicks Prediction & Best Bets
Spread Pick: Knicks -4.5 (52¢ / -108 at Kalshi)
New York turned Madison Square Garden into an absolute fortress last season, posting a 30-10 straight-up (SU) record and covering the spread at a 67.5% clip (27-13 ATS) at home. That dominant run included winning six of their last seven home contests (an 85.7% win rate) while holding opponents to under 100 points in three of those matchups. In the playoffs, the Knicks posted a 7-2 mark at home, sweeping these 76ers in the second round. I am laying the points and backing the Knicks to cover the -4.5 spread.
You can find New York -4.5 priced favorably on Kalshi at 52¢, which translates roughly to -108 odds (far superior to standard -115 sportsbook vig). The underlying metrics highlight a massive mismatch on the glass. Last regular season, the Knicks ranked near the top of the NBA with a dominant 52.9% total rebound percentage, translating that relentless interior presence into 16.3 second-chance points per game. The 76ers, by comparison, secured just 49.1% of available rebounds and surrendered 15.8 second-chance points per game.
Mitchell Robinson’s 16.1 rebounds per 36 minutes will be missed, but KAT is among the best rebounders in the league, particularly on the defensive end. Former 76er Andre Drummond will step in Robinson’s place as the high-energy rebounding big man.
With Karl-Anthony Towns anchoring New York’s frontcourt and Philadelphia’s rotational bigs already compromised, that discrepancy in the paint should allow New York to control the tempo, limit Philadelphia to one-and-done possessions, and capitalize on offensive putbacks.
Game Total Pick: Under 232.5 Points (51¢ / -104 at Kalshi)
For the game total, the line is set high at 232.5. I am siding with the Under 232.5. Kalshi offers the No on the Over at 51¢, which presents solid value at -104.
While Philadelphia pushed pace last season, New York consistently dictates a grinding, half-court flow at Madison Square Garden. The Knicks averaged a methodical 99.6 possessions per game and surrendered just 110.1 points per game on the year, with three of their four regular-season clashes against Philadelphia falling short of 230 points (averaging 223.5 total points across those three lower-scoring affairs). Early-season rust often leads to flat perimeter shooting percentages as teams find their rhythm against physical, defensive-minded schemes. Siding with the Under capitalizes on New York’s ability to slow the game down and win in the halfcourt. You can sign up to bet365 today to shop for the best total lines.
Best Player Prop: Tyrese Maxey Over 21.5 Points (+108 at Novig)
One glaring value on the board lies in the player prop market. I am jumping on Tyrese Maxey to go over his points total of 21.5. Last regular season, the dynamic guard was a reliable scoring machine, averaging an impressive 28.3 points per game across 70 appearances and clearing 21.5 points in 57 of 70 games (an elite 81.4% hit rate).
Taking a posted benchmark nearly seven points lower than his baseline average presents massive upside—especially in an Atlantic Division rivalry where Maxey consistently hunts his shot. Across four regular-season meetings with New York last season, Maxey torched the Knicks for 30.0 points per game, eclipsing this 21.5-point line in all four matchups (30, 36, 22, and 32 points) while firing over 20 field goal attempts per night. With Philadelphia’s frontcourt depth thinned out, Maxey’s shot volume and secondary transition attacks are practically guaranteed. BetMGM often provides great prop markets to explore.
Certainly, the 76ers have more mouths to feed with the additions of Jaylen Brown and LeBron James, but Maxey should still be a 20-PPG scorer. He is also the best bet to play the most minutes on the team – he has averaged at least 37.5 minutes per game in each of the last three seasons.
76ers vs Knicks Public Betting
When reviewing the NBA public betting splits for this showdown, bettors are overwhelmingly backing the home team on the moneyline. New York commands 83.5% of the tickets and 69.9% of the overall cash. Those looking for an upset from Philadelphia make up just 16.5% of tickets and 30.1% of the handle. However, the spread market tells a different story. Bettors are taking the points with the road underdog, as Philadelphia draws 71.6% of tickets and 75.2% of the money.
In the totals market, the splits lean toward a high-scoring affair. The Over is taking in 60.7% of tickets and 62.0% of the money. My betting angle goes against the grain by selecting the Under 232.5. Relying on a contrarian outcome is often a sharp move when two Atlantic Division rivals look to find their opening-night rhythm. theScore Bet is another solid book to monitor for these splits.
76ers vs Knicks Odds
Odds as of October 20 at BetMGM.
Reviewing the latest NBA odds, New York is established as a moderate home favorite. Oddsmakers have set the spread at 4.5 points, while the home squad carries a -182 moneyline price. Keep in mind, Kalshi offers New York Yes at 63¢, which is roughly equivalent to -170, a slightly better price if you are betting them outright to win.
When stripping out the sportsbook’s vig to find the normalized probabilities, New York holds a 61.7% implied win probability, while Philadelphia sits at 38.3%. For bettors looking to place a $10 wager on the moneyline at traditional sportsbooks, a ticket on New York would yield a total payout of $15.49.
Conversely, backing Philadelphia as the road underdog with the same $10 stake would return a total payout of $25.00 if they secure the upset. The game total opened at 228.5 before climbing to its current 231.5 mark. The point spread has remained identical to its opening line of 4.5 points.
Ryan Potts is a veteran football and baseball content creator. He was previously a credentialed NFL media member, covering the draft, combine, and Super Bowl. He has been featured on Atlanta sports talk radio and Arizona student radio. Ryan is a journalism graduate from the University of Arizona.
