Early NFL Player Props to Target Week 7: Watson, Taylor & Walker

• Three early NFL player props to target for Week 7 on Sunday, October 25
• My three targets cover one receiving yards market and two rushing yards markets
• Compare recent player production and opposing defenses before Week 7 prop lines settle

My early NFL player props for Week 7 span Sunday’s schedule, from Colts vs Vikings in the early window to Chiefs vs Seahawks on Sunday Night Football. There are three yardage markets I want to watch as the numbers become available.

Two strong rushing defenses make the unders particularly interesting this week. I’m weighing those matchups against the backs’ recent workloads, along with a receiving matchup against Detroit’s pass defense.

Everything lands on Sunday, October 25. Here are the NFL player props I’m targeting for Week 7.

NFL Week 7 Player Props to Target

These are my own estimated targets, not posted sportsbook lines or prices. Check the actual number and the juice before you bet any of them.

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NFL Player Prop Pick: Christian Watson Receiving Yards

• Early Bet: Christian Watson over 64.5 receiving yards (estimated target)

Christian Watson is at 29 catches for 538 yards and six touchdowns through six games. That’s 18.6 yards per catch, which tells you how he gets there.

His weekly receiving yards read 147, 41, 96, 47, 143 and 64. Three of those six clear 64.5, so this is a high-variance receiver rather than a steady one.

Last week is the one I keep going back to. Watson had three catches for 64 yards against Dallas, basically landing on this number in what was a quiet afternoon by his standards.

The matchup pushes me the rest of the way. Detroit allowed 1,607 gross passing yards in five games before its bye, 321.4 per game across all receivers.

Green Bay visits the Lions at 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday. Watson is averaging 89.7 receiving yards a game, and when I shop receiving yards odds, a number in the mid-60s on a receiver with that profile is where I want to be.

NFL Player Prop Pick: Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards

• Early Bet: Jonathan Taylor under 89.5 rushing yards (estimated target)

Minnesota is the reason I’m on this one. The Vikings allowed 433 rushing yards on 108 attempts in five games before their bye, 86.6 per game at 4.01 per carry against every opposing runner.

Jonathan Taylor is running at almost exactly that rate. He has 122 carries for 492 yards, a 4.0 average on 20.3 carries per game.

He’s cleared 89.5 in four of six games, with weekly totals of 98, 92, 68, 95, 45 and 94. All four were below 100, though. With Minnesota allowing roughly four yards per carry, I like the matchup for an under near 90.

Last week also reads better than it ran. Taylor’s 151 scrimmage yards against Tennessee included 57 through the air on two catches, leaving 94 rushing yards on 21 carries.

The Colts are at 5-0 Minnesota at 1 p.m. ET Sunday. As the rushing yards odds become available, 89.5 is the Taylor under target I’m looking for.

NFL Player Prop Pick: Kenneth Walker III Rushing Yards

• Early Bet: Kenneth Walker III under 109.5 rushing yards (estimated target)

Seattle’s run defense is the reason I like Kenneth Walker III’s rushing under in Chiefs vs Seahawks. The Seahawks have allowed 576 rushing yards on 164 attempts through six games, 96 per game at 3.51 per carry.

They held Denver to 74 team rushing yards in their overtime loss on October 15. That’s the kind of defensive performance that keeps a big rushing number out of reach.

Kenneth Walker III has been excellent for Kansas City. He has 665 yards on 106 carries in five games with the Chiefs, a 6.3 average, and four of five games above 109.5.

His weekly rushing totals are 173, 117, 70, 177 and 128, including 128 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries against the Chargers last time out. At 21.2 carries a game, he has every chance to run through this.

Still, a triple-digit rushing prop against this defense is more than I’d pay for. Kansas City visits Seattle at 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, and I’ll take the under at 109.5.