Ohio State’s National Championship Odds After Julian Sayin Injury Update

• Julian Sayin is out indefinitely after injuring his throwing arm in Ohio State’s win at Indiana
• True freshman Luke Fahey takes over with the Buckeyes’ national title hopes on the line
• Read below for Ohio State’s national championship odds, the latest Julian Sayin injury update and Jeremiah Smith’s Heisman outlook

Ohio State survived Bloomington on Saturday, but the 19-15 win over Indiana came at a steep cost. Julian Sayin left with an injury to his throwing arm, and the news has only gotten worse since.

Ryan Day now says his starting quarterback is out indefinitely. The Buckeyes are 6-1 and still very much in the title race, but they’ll have to chase it with a true freshman under center.

So how big of a hit did OSU’s title hopes take? Here’s where the market stands, what Day said Tuesday and why I’m not ready to write off the Buckeyes.

Ohio State National Championship Odds

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Ohio State Title Odds

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Ohio State’s national championship odds took a hit. The Buckeyes’ YES contract was asking 17 cents on Kalshi before Saturday’s kickoff. It fell to 15 cents on Oct. 18 and sat at 14 cents Tuesday, a drop of three percentage points.

I wouldn’t pin that slide on one press conference. The decline spans the Indiana game and the injury news, rather than just Tuesday’s update.

A 14-cent YES share pays out $1 if Ohio State wins the title, before fees. Ohio State is available at 14¢ on Kalshi.

Miami is asking 15 cents and Georgia 17 cents in the latest CFP National Championship Odds. That leaves Ohio State a cent behind the Hurricanes and three behind the Bulldogs.

Prices as of Oct. 20. If you’re new to prediction markets, check the Kalshi promo code before trading college football futures.

Julian Sayin Injury Update

Tuesday’s Sayin injury update came straight from Day, who said his QB is out indefinitely, according to NBC4. A return during the regular season is doubtful, and Ohio State is planning for the possibility he misses the postseason too.

That isn’t a season-ending ruling. Day hasn’t confirmed that Sayin will miss the entire season. But the Buckeyes are clearly preparing to win without him.

Luke Fahey gets the keys. The true freshman is 9-of-13 for 203 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions this season, and he went 0-for-2 in relief at Indiana.

At least he gets a bye week to prepare. Ohio State faces USC on Oct. 31 and then Oregon on Nov. 7, so there’s no easing into this.

Can Ohio State Win a National Title With a Backup QB?

I think Ohio State can win it all with a backup, and the reason starts with the defense. OSU allows 13.4 points per game and 4.21 yards per play. That unit doesn’t care who’s taking snaps on the other side.

Miami is probably the best team in the country right now, though. Here’s how the two stack up through Oct. 17.

The Canes are unbeaten and average 48.5 points on 8.07 yards per play. They also have an established starter in Darian Mensah, the one thing Ohio State just lost.

Miami isn’t bulletproof. It needed double overtime to beat Florida State 43-35 on Saturday, and its defense allows 4.65 yards per play. The Buckeyes are tougher on that side, and defense is what travels in January.

History is on Ohio State’s side, too. In 2014, the Buckeyes lost Braxton Miller and then J.T. Barrett to injuries. Cardale Jones took over for the final three starts and beat Wisconsin 59-0, Alabama 42-35 and Oregon 42-20 to win the title.

Fahey won’t have to carry this team by himself. The defense can keep games close while Day builds the offense around Smith.

Jeremiah Smith Heisman Outlook

That elite receiver is Jeremiah Smith, and he’s the biggest reason I still like OSU’s chances. He has 52 catches for 984 yards and 12 touchdowns in seven games, including four grabs for 68 yards and a score at Indiana.

A player like Smith makes life easier for a young quarterback. Defenses have to roll coverage his way, which opens things up elsewhere, and Fahey can trust him to win contested balls.

That doesn’t mean the injury helps his numbers. Less accurate throws could cut into his production, and his spot in the Heisman odds depends on keeping that pace.

If Smith keeps piling up big games and OSU keeps winning with a freshman QB, he’ll have a strong Heisman argument by December. He’s good enough to pull it off.