NFL Week 7 Over/Under Picks – Game-Total Prediction for All 14 Games

The Week 7 NFL schedule kicks off on October 22 at 8:15 PM ET with the New England Patriots visiting the Chicago Bears on TNF. The slate concludes on October 26 at 8:15 PM ET when the Dallas Cowboys head to face the Philadelphia Eagles in a critical NFC East clash.

Comparing the opening totals with the current lines listed, the largest moves are modest: the Patriots-Bears, Giants-Texans, Bengals-Ravens, Buccaneers-Panthers, Dolphins-Jets, Browns-Titans, and Packers-Lions are each up one point. The Colts-Vikings, 49ers-Falcons, and Broncos-Cardinals totals have each dropped a point, while the rest remain unchanged.

All O/U lines below come from prediction market Novig, and new users can claim exclusive NOVIG PROMO CODE to get a sign-up bonus ahead of Week 7.

NFL Over/Under Picks for Week 7

While it’s been a brilliant start to the season for my SU picks and underdog picks, the same cannot be said for the O/U picks, which are hemorrhaging funds. They were just 5-9 in Week 6, dropping the season-long record to an ugly 33–44 ($-9.512 units) on one-unit wagers.

Onward and, hopefully, upward.

Patriots vs Bears O/U Pick: Under 50.5

The Patriots (3-3 O/U overall, 3-0 O/U after Week 3) average 22.7 points per game behind an offense finding its stride, but they now face a Bears (3-3 O/U overall, 1-2 O/U after Week 3) defense allowing just 19.8 points per contest at Soldier Field.

While Chicago generates 388.3 total yards per game, both defensive units excel in situational football, with Chicago limiting opponents to under 20 points in four of six outings and New England conceding 18.8 points per game. Evaluating both teams’ defensive efficiency and Chicago’s heavy under trend at home (including games totaling 12, 34, and 35 points), this 50.5-point total is significantly inflated. The disciplined schemes and ball-control tempos point toward a lower-scoring affair. Play the Under 50.5.

Steelers vs Saints O/U Pick: Over 44.5

The Steelers (4-2 O/U overall, 3-0 O/U after Week 3) travel across the Atlantic to face a Saints (5-1 O/U overall, 2-1 O/U after Week 3) offense boasting an 84.2% red zone efficiency and 25.3 points per game. New Orleans has been an absolute over machine in 2026, seeing their games average 55.0 total points as their leaky defense surrenders 29.7 points per contest.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has scored 26 or more points in three of their last four games, participating in shootouts totaling 57, 51, 56, and 45 points since late September. Checking their post-Week 3 trajectories in a neutral dome setting at Stade de France, the situational splits strongly suggest a shootout. This offensive output justifies playing Over 44.5.

Colts vs Vikings O/U Pick: Over 41.5

The Colts (4-2 O/U overall, 2-1 O/U after Week 3) produce 24.0 points per game, countering a Vikings (1-4 O/U overall, 0-2 O/U after Week 3) defense that leads the NFL by yielding just 12.8 points per game. While Minnesota’s games have skewed under due to defensive dominance, Indianapolis brings relentless tempo and leaky coverage, allowing 27.3 points per contest and seeing their last three games reach 43, 62, and 46 total points.

With Jonathan Taylor establishing the ground attack to keep Anthony Richardson on schedule and Kevin O’Connell’s offense finding efficient scoring lanes against an overmatched Indy secondary, these combined metrics easily surpass a depressed market number. Take Over 41.5.

Dolphins vs Jets O/U Pick: Under 39.5

The Dolphins (2-3 O/U overall, 1-1 O/U after Week 3) have sputtered to a dismal 14.0 points per game, failing to crack 20 points in four of their five outings. Combined with the Jets (2-4 O/U overall, 1-2 O/U after Week 3) and their offense averaging just 18.7 points per contest, the two AFC East rivals average under 33 combined points per game.

With Breece Hall sidelined by a quadriceps injury and Miami struggling to sustain drives under Jeff Hafley, both squads lack the explosive playmakers to generate quick scoring strikes. Looking at their respective under trends, a sloppy, field-position battle in East Rutherford will dictate this divisional clash. Take Under 39.5.

Bengals vs Ravens O/U Pick: Over 50.5

The Ravens (4-2 O/U overall, 1-2 O/U after Week 3) rack up 26.0 points and 367.7 total yards per game, while the Bengals (3-2 O/U overall, 1-1 O/U after Week 3) closely trail at 25.6 points per game behind Joe Burrow. Prior to Baltimore’s weather-affected slugfest in Cleveland, the Ravens combined for 64, 41, 65, 42, and 53 points over their first five outings, while Cincinnati has already played in shootouts reaching 60 and 57 points.

Divisional battles between Lamar Jackson and Burrow routinely turn into second-half track meets with minimal defensive resistance. This explosive pace and high-leverage passing volume support betting Over 50.5.

Browns vs Titans O/U Pick: Under 37.5

The Browns (1-5 O/U overall, 1-2 O/U after Week 3) average 17.7 points per game, slightly edging the Titans (1-5 O/U overall, 1-2 O/U after Week 3) and their anemic 14.0 scoring average. Both teams have cashed five unders in six games, with Tennessee’s contests averaging an NFL-low 35.5 total points and Cleveland’s averaging just 38.0.

Examining both teams’ metrics confirms an utter lack of red zone efficiency and explosive passing capability, as both coaching staffs rely heavily on conservative run games and stout defensive fronts. The smartest wager in this rock fight is playing Under 37.5.

49ers vs Falcons O/U Pick: Over 48.5

The 49ers (3-3 O/U overall, 1-2 O/U after Week 3) operate as an offensive juggernaut, posting 29.5 points per game and leading the NFC in yards per play behind Brock Purdy. The Falcons (4-2 O/U overall, 3-0 O/U after Week 3) add 23.7 points per game and have seen each of their last four games eclipse 49 points (69, 53, and 54 total points).

Atlanta’s defense has been gashed for 25.5 points per game, while Michael Penix Jr. continues to push the ball downfield into high-scoring scripts. Factoring in their fast pace inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium’s climate-controlled dome, the projected air show makes Over 48.5 an appealing investment.

Buccaneers vs Panthers O/U Pick: Over 44.5

The Panthers (2-3 O/U overall, 1-1 O/U after Week 3) generate an impressive 29.2 points per game under Dave Canales, scoring 37, 34, and 32 points in three of their five contests. The Buccaneers (2-4 O/U overall, 1-2 O/U after Week 3) chip in 19.8 points per game, but their defense has unraveled by allowing 23.0 points per contest and getting gashed in back-to-back losses to Dallas and Pittsburgh.

Carolina’s home games at Bank of America Stadium have been electric scoring bonanzas averaging 77.0 combined points in 2026. Reviewing Carolina’s explosive ground production behind Chuba Hubbard alongside Tampa Bay’s leaky secondary, there will be more than enough scoring to push this total Over 44.5.

Giants vs Texans O/U Pick: Over 43.5

The Texans (4-2 O/U overall, 2-1 O/U after Week 3) tally 24.0 points per game, while the Giants (4-2 O/U overall, 3-0 O/U after Week 3) average a respectable 22.7 points behind rookie Jaxson Dart. New York has completely shifted into high-scoring shootouts over the past month, with their last three games producing 60, 54, and 61 combined points as their secondary has allowed 28.3 points per game.

Houston has mirrored that upside with CJ Stroud, playing in track meets of 67, 64, and 65 points against Buffalo, Dallas, and Jacksonville. Assessing their post-Week 3 offensive volume, this combined scoring capability exposes a mispriced total. Over 43.5 is a solid choice.

Broncos vs Cardinals O/U Pick: Under 43.5

The Broncos (1-5 O/U overall, 0-3 O/U after Week 3) struggle to generate consistent offensive momentum, averaging just 19.0 points per game behind a run-heavy, ball-control scheme. They travel to face the Cardinals (3-3 O/U overall, 2-1 O/U after Week 3), whose offense produces 20.5 points per contest while leaning heavily on intermediate targets in the absence of lead back Jeremiyah Love.

Denver’s defense has been the driving force behind five unders in six games, holding opponents to 20.8 points per contest and keeping all three of their post-Week 3 matchups under 41 total points (38, 40, and 40). Factoring in both teams’ slow-paced offensive styles alongside Denver’s top-ten third-down defense, the overall metrics indicate a field-position grind dictated by punts and red-zone stands. The smartest angle points toward Under 43.5.

Rams vs Raiders O/U Pick: Over 48.5

The Raiders (4-2 O/U overall, 3-0 O/U after Week 3) remain one of the AFC’s most reliable over engines, averaging 26.3 points per game under Antonio Pierce while their leaky secondary allows 25.3 points per contest. They host a Rams (2-4 O/U overall, 1-2 O/U after Week 3) offense that averages 22.5 points per game and is fully capable of engineering explosive chunk plays indoors behind Matthew Stafford.

Las Vegas has cleared 44.5 total points in four of six games, with their last four matchups exploding for 62, 57, 62, and 45 combined points. With the Rams surrendering 34 points to Buffalo and 31 to Arizona, both defenses are vulnerable to intermediate seam concepts and perimeter runs. Reviewing their high-scoring post-Week 3 trajectories in the climate-controlled setting of Allegiant Stadium, this matchup offers excellent value on Over 48.5.

Packers vs Lions O/U Pick: Over 52.5

The Lions (5-0 O/U overall) feature an NFL-best 32.8 points per game, turning every contest into a track meet while their vulnerable secondary surrenders 29.6 points per game. They welcome the Packers (2-4 O/U overall, 0-3 O/U after Week 3), who contribute 21.2 points per game and feature Jordan Love directing a passing attack that hung 31 points on Chicago in Week 5.

Detroit has not played a single under all season, with their five outings generating wild totals of 61, 72, 58, 62, and 58 points. Even with Green Bay playing lower-scoring divisional games recently, Dan Campbell’s breakneck offensive pace and Detroit’s 80% red zone touchdown rate inside Ford Field will force Green Bay into an aggressive, pass-heavy script. The dominant scoring pace easily sends this matchup Over 52.5.

Chiefs vs Seahawks O/U Pick: Over 42.5

The Chiefs (2-3 O/U overall, 1-1 O/U after Week 3) generate an elite 28.0 points and 414.0 total yards per game behind Patrick Mahomes, operating with superior third-down and red-zone efficiency. They square off against the Seahawks (3-3 O/U overall, 2-1 O/U after Week 3), who boast dynamic offensive capabilities averaging 24.7 points per game and have already traded blows in shootouts reaching 64, 53, and 61 total points.

While Steve Spagnuolo’s defense has clamped down to allow just 16.6 points per contest, Seattle’s perimeter weapons will test Kansas City’s secondary on explosive deep shots at Lumen Field. Considering Seattle’s tendency to accelerate pace when trailing and Kansas City’s ability to manufacture sustained touchdown drives, this 42.5-point line sits well below the combined scoring baseline. Confidently back the Over 42.5.

Cowboys vs Eagles O/U Pick: Under 44.5

The Cowboys (4-2 O/U overall, 1-2 O/U after Week 3) produce 25.2 points per game with a 77.3% red zone touchdown efficiency, but they face an Eagles (1-5 O/U overall, 0-3 O/U after Week 3) squad that has completely stalled out offensively following Jalen Hurts’ season-ending medical diagnosis and Saquon Barkley’s absence. Philadelphia averages just 17.7 points per game and has failed to crack 20 points in four of six outings, managing only 14 points against Carolina in Week 6 and seven against Chicago in Week 3.

All three of the Eagles’ post-Week 3 games have stayed under 44.5 total points (34, 44, and 39). With Andy Dalton forced into a conservative game manager role and Dallas prioritizing clock-killing drives on the road, this rivalry clash sets up as a possession-by-possession slog landing Under 44.5.