Iowa Senate Odds Forecast Close Race in Battleground State: Trade Midterm Elections on Kalshi

• The Iowa Senate race is competitive, as Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson are within the margin of error in the most recent polls, with Hinson barely in front
• In the Donald J. Trump era, Iowa has been reliably red; that, however, has not been its long-term history as a purplish state with senators and governors from both parties
• With the midterm elections coming up fast, the race to replace Sen. Ernst is in play, with prediction markets offering Iowa Senate odds for users to trade on their picks

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If the Republicans are going to retain control of the Senate, they need to keep Iowa in their column, and Iowa Senate odds are tracking the markets all the way to Election Day. For the Democrats, they have several pathways to take over the upper chamber and get the four net seats they need. Since there was a perception that Iowa was safe in Republican hands with U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson to replace Joni Ernst, the GOP now finds itself in the position where it needs to spend money in the state. That, combined with redder states than Iowa — Texas, Ohio, and Alaska — being vulnerable, is problematic for the party in general and Trump in particular.

Hinson and her Democrat opponent, Josh Turek, are neck and neck in the polls. Turek is a member of the Iowa House of Representatives. There are several factors that could come into play here, including the understated fact that Thomas Laehn, a Libertarian candidate, is on the ballot.

Prediction markets are watching this race with great interest, offering the opportunity to invest and profit with a correct pick in this highly competitive and potentially determinative battle for the seat and possibly control of the Senate. It currently has one of the most competitive implied probabilities on the political markets, leaving it wide open for prospective investors.

Iowa Senate Odds Show a Tight Race Ahead of Election Day

Trading volume for this market is massive, now beyond $6.1 million.

Hinson is well ahead in market probability at nearly 60%. Turek is at about 40%.

For those who want to trade on this market, the Kalshi promo code offers new users a $55 bonus after completing $25 in trades.

Ashley Hinson (R)

Rep. Hinson is 43 and is in her third term in the U.S. House. A former TV reporter, she is strongly behind President Trump and his agenda. She highlights her support for working families with proposed tax cuts, wants to lower medication costs, and wants to provide people with better access to healthcare. She is staunchly pro-life apart from certain situations, including the life of the mother. She has come out against Trump’s recent deals to relieve pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin. Hinson has tried to help state farmers with reduced costs on farming staples like fertilizer.

Her conservative bona fides will bring out the Republicans, even those who might not like Trump. But her opposition to abortion in all but a few instances could be a challenge for her given the current political climate. To her credit, she has not backed down on the polarizing issue. Still, one issue voters will vote against her based solely on that.

Josh Turek (D)

The 47-year-old Turek is in his second term in the Iowa House. He won a stunningly tight race in 2022 by six votes in his district.

But a win is a win.

Turek has spina bifida and gets around in a wheelchair. He has the credibility to talk about how difficult it can be to face the challenges he and his family did as working-class people with major medical needs and costs. A Paralympic athlete, he competed and won gold medals in basketball in 2016 and 2020.

He, too, has tried to ingratiate himself with state farmers advocating for the end of tariffs, and battling against corporate farming companies overwhelming family farms.

Turek is pro-choice. He also wants to protect healthcare options that many in the state use, including the Affordable Care Act, Medicare, and Medicaid. He has a strong foundation to talk about issues related to people with healthcare concerns and disabilities since, obviously, he is a person with a disability.

Iowa’s tilt to the right for Trump could be an outlier based largely on his platform that often deviated from that of a conventional Republican as he pushed an unabashed America First agenda and kowtowed to farmers with his proposed plans. The state voted for Barack Obama by large margins twice. It is not prototypically red.

While Hinson’s policies fall right in line with general GOP orthodoxy, the political tailwinds are behind the Democrats, and Turek is an appealing candidate.

Given the stakes, Laehn will probably not be a factor since anyone who takes the time and effort to vote for him either wasn’t going to vote for the other two candidates or wouldn’t have voted at all.

Looking at the Iowa Senate odds, there is great value in picking the Democrat to win this race.