NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 7: Back the Underdog in Colts vs Vikings

Week 7 of the 2026 NFL season kicked off Thursday night, with the Chicago Bears defeating the New England Patriots 30–24. Chicago built an early 10–0 first-quarter lead and stayed in front, answering every Patriots push in the second half to secure the victory.

The remaining slate begins Sunday at 9:30 a.m. ET when the Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints clash in France, wrapping up Monday night at 8:15 p.m. ET as the Dallas Cowboys visit the Philadelphia Eagles.

We have you covered with NFL odds and insights. Read on for my complete betting breakdown, featuring an against-the-spread pick for every remaining Week 7 matchup, plus my three best ATS selections analyzed in detail.

NFL Week 7 Picks Against the Spread for Every Game

Spreads are courtesy of BetMGM; these lines are current at the time of publishing and subject to movement.

Best NFL ATS Picks for Week 7

These three Week 7 matchups present fantastic value by backing the underdogs. Let’s dive into the analytical profiles and situational spots driving my top against-the-spread selections for this slate, focusing on divisional clashes and road favorites laying too many points.

NFL ATS Pick #1: Colts +6.5 vs Vikings

I trust the value here with a heavy road underdog. The Minnesota Vikings boast a suffocating defense, allowing just 12.8 points per game on the season, plummeting to a microscopic 10.5 points allowed over their last four matchups. However, the Indianapolis Colts have the offensive tools to grind this game out and keep it within the number.

Indianapolis leans heavily on running back Jonathan Taylor, who racks up 82.0 rushing yards per game. Controlling the clock on the ground is the most effective way to neutralize Minnesota’s defensive pressure. While Indianapolis quarterback Daniel Jones has struggled, managing just 215.0 passing yards per game with a 71.1 passer rating, the Colts’ scoring output remains respectable at 24.0 points per game on the season. They don’t need a flawless aerial attack to cover 6.5 points.

Offensively, the Vikings lack the explosive passing game to blow teams out. Kyler Murray averages just 165.5 passing yards per game, and while Aaron Jones Sr. mirrors Taylor with 82.0 rushing yards per contest, this Minnesota offense isn’t built to run away with games. With Minnesota sitting at a flawless 5-0 straight up, the market has overinflated their value. I love taking the points here.

NFL Week 7 Pick: Colts +6.5 (-107)

NFL ATS Pick #2: Dolphins +4.5 vs Jets

Hear me out. Backing a winless 0-5 team on the road is going to be a sweat, but I believe the market has overreacted to the Miami Dolphins’ early struggles. Yes, Miami’s start has been abysmal, averaging a league-worst 14.0 points per game while surrendering 26.4 points per contest. Their offense is hovering at just 14.3 points over their last four games.

However, we are catching 4.5 points against a flawed New York Jets team, and Miami is coming off the bye. New York is scoring a modest 18.7 points per game on the season. Laying nearly a touchdown with a division rival that struggles to score is terrible business. While Jets quarterback Geno Smith provides some stability with 222.7 passing yards per game and a 68.9% completion rate, New York’s ground game relies on Breece Hall churning out just 54.3 rushing yards per game.

The Dolphins have played some competitive games, and they will be ready to go in Week 7. Take the divisional underdog.

NFL Week 7 Pick: Dolphins +4.5 (-114)

NFL ATS Pick #3: Titans +1.5 vs Browns

Finding great value in the NFL ATS records often means looking beyond flashy metrics and focusing on the situational spot. The Tennessee Titans catching 1.5 points at home against the Cleveland Browns is a textbook example. Cleveland has gone just 3-16 straight up on the road over its last 19 games, a troubling mark for a team favored away from home.

The Browns are also coming off an emotional comeback victory over their division rival Ravens, and after this game they head back on the road to face the Steelers. That unusual scheduling spot could make it difficult to stay focused against Tennessee. With the Browns only a 1.5-point favorite, the Titans have an opportunity to take advantage of Cleveland’s road struggles and the awkward spot on the schedule and win their second straight game.

The Titans will benefit from the physicality of an AFC battle, where controlling the line of scrimmage and managing the clock can help keep this matchup close. In a game priced this tightly, taking the points with the home side is my preferred angle.

NFL Week 7 Pick: Titans +1.5