NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds: Midseason Movers and Value Picks

The NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds have been turned on their head over the past two weeks: Will Anderson Jr was approaching even-money after Week 5 (+117) but has taken massive tumble from his commanding perch.

After Week 5, Anderson sat comfortably at 46¢ (+117), but consecutive quiet outings have knocked him down to 28¢ (+257) – an 18¢ drop that has blown the race wide open. In his wake, contenders like Aidan Hutchinson, Dexter Lawrence II, and Fred Warner have surged up the board, tightening what was once looking like a runaway race into a crowded midseason battle.

Updated DPOY Odds & Movement

“Current Odds” as of Oct 27 at Kalshi. Claim the Kalshi promo code to get a sign-up bonus ahead of NFL Week 8.

Biggest Risers

Aidan Hutchinson (Detroit Lions)

Movement: 7¢ (+1329) → 13¢ (+669) (↑ 6¢)
Hutchinson made the biggest leap on the board, nearly doubling his market price from 7¢ to 13¢. The Lions edge star delivered another sack and five quarterback hits in Week 7, bringing his season totals to 5.0 sacks and 16 quarterback hits through six games. With Anderson faltering and the Lions firmly in the NFC spotlight, Hutchinson has climbed into prime challenger status.

Dexter Lawrence II (Cincinnati Bengals)

Movement: 2¢ (+4900) → 7¢ (+1329) (↑ 5¢)
Lawrence surged out of longshot territory with a five-cent climb, vaulting from 2¢ all the way to 7¢. The dominant defensive tackle added a sack and two tackles-for-loss (TFL) in Week 7, lifting his season stat line to 4.0 sacks, seven TFL, and seven quarterback hits. Interior defensive linemen rarely capture DPOY momentum, but Lawrence’s game-wrecking ability in the trenches is commanding serious recognition.

Biggest Fallers

Will Anderson Jr (Houston Texans)

Movement: 46¢ (+117) → 28¢ (+257) (↓ 18¢)
Anderson absorbed the largest drop of any contender on the board, losing 18 cents of implied probability as his runaway favorite status evaporated. While Anderson still leads the NFL with 7.5 sacks, 10 TFL, and 15 quarterback hits, he was held completely off the stat sheet for sacks and quarterback hits in back-to-back games (Weeks 6 and 7), culminating in Houston’s Week 7 overtime loss to the Giants. That recent cold stretch opened the door for challengers to close the gap rapidly.

Greg Rousseau (Buffalo Bills)

Movement: 8¢ (+1150) → 3¢ (+3233) (↓ 5¢)
Rousseau saw his odds plummet by five cents, dropping from 8¢ down to 3¢. Despite a productive overall ledger (6.0 sacks, 19 quarterback hits, and three forced fumbles through six games), a quiet Week 6 showing without a sack or TFL caused his market backing to cool significantly as other pass rushers made louder recent statements.