MLB Lockout Odds & Predictions – Will 2027 Season Start on Time?

• The odds are overwhelmingly in favor of an MLB lockout on December 1st
• We should expect not only a lockout, but a delay to the start of next season as well
• Keep reading for the MLB lockout odds and my prediction for why the 2027 season will not start on time, below

If you read between the lines, it’s no longer a question of if there will be an MLB lockout on December 1st, it’s a matter of how long will the lockout last. Both the owners and MLB players association remain miles apart on a new CBA, and the odds at prediction markets are overwhelmingly in favor of lengthy work stoppage.

That’s a sentiment I agree with for the reasons I’ll lay out below, and whether you’re in the same camp or not, there’s plenty of different ways you can wager on the outcome of the pending lockout. Keep reading for the latest MLB lockout odds below, and my prediction for why the 2027 season will not start on time.

MLB Lockout Odds and Predicitons

• 2027 MLB Regular Season Start Day Before April 1, 2027 – NO (69¢ / -223 at Kalshi)

My favorite way to trade in this Kalshi market is by betting the season doesn’t take place until after April 1st. New users can sign up with the Kalshi promo code and get a bonus to use in this market.

In order for the 2027 season to start on time, a new CBA needs to be agreed upon by March 1st at the absolute latest. Yes, that’s still 4+ months away, but there’s a good chance the owners and players association don’t start engaging in serious talks until February. At that point, if they remain miles apart like they are now, we can’t expect them to hold lengthy bargaining sessions.

The main issue at hand is the owners insistence of a hard salary cap like the rest of the other Major sporting leagues. The players association is vehemently against that idea, and they’re known for having the most powerful and unified union in professional sports. Owners claim that a salary cap would guarantee competitive balance and create a level playing field for smaller market teams, and would prevent organizations like the Dodgers and other big spenders from buying championships. Sure, a small market team just won the World Series, but it had been 11 years since the last time that happened prior to the Brewers triumph.

The players believe accepting a hard cap is a defeat that would suppress franchise values and crater future earning potential. They’ve gone to war in the past over this issue and held firm, and there’s no indication they’re even thinking about backing down this time around.

This kind of stalemate has the potential to go for a longtime, and while the owners have the deeper pockets at this point to withstand the loss of revenue, the players association has been savvy about their saving and have built up a war chest of their own for this exact scenario.

• Games Played in the 2027 MLB Regular Season – More than 1,930 – YES (63¢ / -170 at Kalshi)

According to insiders, the MLB players association has roughly $75 million saved up to pay its members in case of a work stoppage. That kind of money can float the players for a long time, and they’ve proved their willing to sacrifice a World Series in the past if necessary to get what they want.

The stubbornness of the players along with the cash safety net should tie them over well past April 1st, but I don’t think this lockout will surpass the seven and a half month strike of ’94. There’s a much bigger issue at stake for both sides this time around, which is why I do expect someone to cave (most likely the owners) before each team loses 60 regular season games.

That number is critical in 2027, because if they lose that many games, the league’s broadcast deals with major networks like FOX that are set to expire after 2028, will automatically extend another year. That means the networks will pay virtually nothing for an additional season of broadcast rights, dealing a major financial blow to both owners and players. That loss of income will likely be unbearable, and should inspire a deal to get done.

If an agreement can’t be reached before 60 games are lost, the league and owners will have to sacrifice an extremely lucrative deal they’re planning with streaming services, that will centralize and bundle local right into new multi-billion dollar media packages.

In order to keep the deal in place, the 2027 season will need to start by late May or early June, and there’s too much money at stake for that not to happen. That will guarantee the season eclipses 1,930 games, helping us cash our wager.