Thursday College Football Picks & Predictions: Best Bets for Week 9

• Thursday college football picks are here for a three-game Week 9 slate
• I’m finding value in an FCS road trip, a Sun Belt title rematch and a national TV spot in Denton
• Read below for my best bets and the prices to target before kickoff

Thursday brings three more games on the Week 9 college football schedule, and the best value sits away from the top of the rankings. I always keep a close eye on the mid-level and FCS landscapes, where markets can be slower to adjust to these quieter matchups.

South Carolina State visits Morgan State at 7 p.m. ET on ESPNU. Troy heads to James Madison for a Sun Belt Championship rematch at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2, while Florida Atlantic visits North Texas at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

I’m breaking down a road underdog scenario in Harrisonburg, an explosive offensive matchup in Denton and an FCS battle in Baltimore. Here are my Thursday college football predictions for October 29.

Thursday College Football Picks

All three of my Thursday college football picks are priced on Kalshi, where a contract’s price roughly reflects its implied probability before fees. A 53¢ James Madison contract implies about a 53% chance the Dukes win by 18 or more.

The most expensive position is South Carolina State at 72¢, so the Bulldogs need to win more than 72% of the time for that price to hold value. Prices were checked October 28 and can move, so compare them with the current college football odds before kickoff.

Thursday CFB Pick #1: South Carolina State at Morgan State

• Pick: South Carolina State to Win (72¢ on Kalshi)

South Carolina State (6-2, 1-0 MEAC) travels to Hughes Stadium holding a clear edge on both sides of the ball. The defending MEAC champions score 40.9 points per game while allowing just 17.6, and they average 443.6 total yards while holding opponents to 246.3.

The trenches drive this matchup. South Carolina State runs for 212 yards per game, allows only 94 on the ground and has piled up 24 sacks, coming off a 22-7 win over Norfolk State.

Morgan State (5-3, 0-1) is coming off a 26-20 overtime loss to Howard. Quarterback Cameron Edge went 23-of-33 for 195 yards and two touchdowns, but he threw an interception in overtime and was sacked three times.

Running back Mason Pickett-Hicks (793 yards and seven touchdowns on 108 carries) gives the Bears a real weapon. Still, my South Carolina State vs. Morgan State prediction has the Bulldogs controlling the line of scrimmage and securing the outright road victory.

Thursday CFB Pick #2: Troy at James Madison

• Pick: James Madison -17.5 (53¢ on Kalshi)

James Madison (7-1, 4-1 Sun Belt) returns to Bridgeforth Stadium after a 34-31 overtime loss at Appalachian State. The Dukes have won 11 straight home games, including a 4-0 mark in 2026, while scoring 41.4 points and allowing 18.3 per game.

Troy (3-4, 1-2) arrives as the road underdog after a 21-14 loss to ULM. That kind of offensive output will have a hard time keeping pace in Harrisonburg.

Quarterback usage is worth watching. Camden Coleman went 22-of-39 for 232 yards and a touchdown while adding a rushing score against App State, and JC Evans also completed 5-of-7 passes for 99 yards and a touchdown.

My Troy vs. James Madison prediction has the Dukes bouncing back with a three-score win at home. At 53¢, laying 17.5 points with an offense averaging 41.4 points per game is the smart play.

Thursday CFB Pick #3: Florida Atlantic at North Texas

• Pick: Over 76.5 Points (51¢ on Kalshi)

Florida Atlantic visits DATCU Stadium to face one of the most explosive offenses in the country. North Texas averages 43.1 points per game, second nationally, and 525.7 total yards, fourth in the country.

The FAU defense ranks 134th in total defense, 129th in scoring defense and 137th against the run. North Texas’ coach noted those numbers are skewed by a schedule that included Florida and three triple-option opponents, but this still sets up well for the Mean Green offense.

The Owls have won four of their last five, so they should hold up their end of the scoring. Florida Atlantic leans on experienced quarterback Caden Veltkamp, and Easton Messer scored five touchdowns against Rice: two receiving, two rushing and one on a punt return.

My Florida Atlantic vs. North Texas prediction expects defensive stops to be rare. Take the Over in what promises to be a shootout in Denton.

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