Parlay These 3 NFL Player Props in Week 8 for a Potential 14-1 Payout

• One of the keys to betting NFL player props is to avoid simply chasing recent boxscores
• Three players are showing strong volume/opportunity metrics and have great matchups to exploit in Week 8
• I am parlaying these three players to have big games for a potential 14-1 payout

One of the most common flaws in betting NFL player props is chasing recent boxscores. Bettors are often seeing the player’s performance ceilings and assuming they will continue to produce at that ceiling. I prefer to look at the underlying metrics that signal volume and quality of opportunities, while also factoring in the advanced metrics of the defense they’ll face.

I also very rarely bet standard over/under lines for player props. When I make a good read, I want to make sure I hit the sportsbooks for a better payout than the -110 (or worse) odds that come with the standard markets. So, I bet player prop alternate lines, which some may know as milestones, that come with plus-money payouts.

I see three players who stand out as having strong probabilities to outperform their expectations in Week 8. These three players make up my favorite longshot NFL parlay for today.

NFL Player Prop Parlay for Week 8

The sportsbook carrying the best odds for this parlay is FanDuel, who is offering +1387. FanDuel actually puts the milestones in your face when navigating to the player prop markets, so they’re all easy to find in the app.

If you’re betting each of these legs as singles as well (I do!), Kenneth Walker for 100+ rushing yards is the only leg where FanDuel has the best odds. DraftKings has the best odds for Javonte Williams to record 90+ rushing yards, and theScore Bet has the best odds for Parker Washington to post 80+ receiving yards

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I’ll dive into why I like each of these three player props below.

Javonte Williams 90+ Rushing Yards

• Opponent: Cardinals (23rd vs Run)
• Standard Rushing Line: 76.5

While Javonte Williams does not possess the tackle-breaking or explosive metrics that I typically look for when searching for running backs who could post big numbers, his volume and matchup are too strong to overlook.

The case for Williams starts with his dominant 70.7% early-down rush share. Though his offensive line hasn’t helped a ton so far, only providing him with 1.44 yards before contact per carry, he generates a strong 2.85 yards after contact per attempt.

Williams is coming off his first 20+ carry game of the season, as he racked up 155 yards on the ground against the Eagles. The Cowboys made a real effort to run the ball more in this game, and they came away with a win – something they didn’t do much in their first six games.

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I believe Dallas will continue making this effort to run the ball, and their status as 7-point favorites against the Cardinals helps that narrative as well. It’s likely they’ll be facing a positive game script, looking to eat away at clock and preserve their lead.

Arizona also ranks 23rd against the run, and allow 4.7 yards per carry (25th). So, while Williams has only hit the 90+ rushing milestone in two of seven games this season, he may not even need a full workload to achieve it in this one.

Kenneth Walker III 100+ Rushing Yards

• Opponent: Broncos (28th vs Run)
• Standard Rushing Line: 86.5

Kenneth Walker checks just about every possible box in the search for running backs who are primed to explode – though, he has already been exploding most of the season.

Walker’s surface-level stats look great – averages 5.84 yards per carry, has hit 100+ rushing yards in four of six games etc. – but his underlying metrics might look even better:

• Dominant 77.6% early-down carry share
• Absurd 4.1 yards after contact per carry
• Insane 35% missed tackle forced rate
• Elite 15.8% explosive rush rate (10+ yards)

On top of having all of his own boxes checked, Walker has a very beneficial matchup in Week 8 when he takes on the Broncos for the second time this year. The first matchup saw him rush for 173 yards, and he wasn’t even needed in the fourth quarter.

Denver ranks 28th against the run. They surrender 3.75 yards after contact per carry and possess a 31.4% missed tackle rate. While some analysts believe the Broncos have improved against the run as the season has progressed, I think they have just played two teams recently who struggle to run the ball in the Seahawks and Cardinals. Three weeks ago, they allowed the lowly Chargers to rush for a season-high 155 yards.

I fully expect Denver to sellout to stop Walker, but I don’t think they’ll be able to accomplish that tough task.

Parker Washington 80+ Receiving Yards

• Opponent: Colts (13th vs Pass)
• Standard Receiving Line: 68.5

I don’t typically love counting on receivers to have big games when their respective teams are heavy favorites, as Jacksonville is against Indianapolis (-10) in Week 8, but there is too much that lines up here with Parker Washington.

The Jaguars top receiver has a near elite WOPR of 0.675, stemming from his 25% target share and 41.4% air yards share. He is Trevor Lawrence’s clear top-option when putting the ball in the air.

While Indianapolis has given up the 13th-fewest passing yards per game, they aren’t actually good against the pass. Teams just haven’t had to throw the ball against them much. The Colts actually rank seventh-worst in average net yards per pass attempt (7.26), and teams have thrown 29 passes against them that had at least 20 air yards (seventh-most).

Washington has only achieved 80+ receiving yards in three of six games this season, but there are many signs pointing to him achieving it again in Week 8, despite the likelihood of the Jags spending the second half killing clock.