Senators vs Sabres Prediction, Puck Line & NHL Picks (Nov. 4)

• The Sabres bring a three-game win streak home for Wednesday’s Atlantic Division clash with Ottawa
• The Senators are 2-3-1 since Linus Ullmark went down, allowing 27 goals in that six-game stretch
• Keep reading for my Senators vs Sabres prediction, puck line breakdown and NHL picks for Nov. 4

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The Buffalo Sabres (7-4-3) come home hot after sweeping three games in California. They host an Ottawa Senators team (9-6-1) that has hit a wall since losing its No. 1 goalie. Puck drop is 7:30 p.m. ET Wednesday at KeyBank Center.

Ottawa still sits third in the Atlantic, four spots ahead of Buffalo. But Ullmark remains on injured reserve after rejoining practice Tuesday, and the crease behind him has struggled. That gap drives the latest NHL odds for this one.

Tage Thompson also arrives as the NHL’s First Star of the Week. My Senators vs Sabres prediction, puck line take and NHL picks are below.

Senators vs Sabres Prediction

• Sabres Moneyline

I’m backing Buffalo for my Senators vs Sabres prediction, and the goalie gap is the main reason. Ottawa went 7-1-0 in Ullmark’s starts, but it’s 2-3-1 since he left the Oct. 21 win over Florida.

Jonas Johansson has an .848 save percentage and 4.60 GAA in four games, while Samuel Ersson sits at .866 and 3.78 in seven. Ottawa hasn’t named Wednesday’s starter, but either one is a big step down.

Buffalo, meanwhile, scored 12 goals in its three California wins, with Thompson posting five goals and eight points. The Sabres also hold a 52.6% Corsi share at 5-on-5, compared to Ottawa’s 49.7%. A win would help them climb the NHL playoff picture from seventh in the division.

The risk sits in Buffalo’s own end. The Sabres’ penalty kill ranks 28th at 68.6%, and they’re only 3-3-0 at home. Ottawa’s power play has converted just 12.3% of its chances, though, which limits how much it can punish that weakness.

Senators vs Sabres Key Stats

Stats through Nov. 4.

Senators vs Sabres Puck Line

Sportsbook odds from BetMGM, captured Nov. 3. Kalshi Sabres buy quote: 56¢, before fees.

Buffalo is the -1.5 side on the Senators vs Sabres puck line, priced at +170 for about a 37% implied chance. Ottawa gets 1.5 goals at -208, which works out to roughly 67.5%. On the moneyline, the Sabres at -133 carry around a 54.5% no-vig chance to win.

I’m not laying the goal and a half. Ottawa’s six regulation losses have all come by two goals or more, but only two of Buffalo’s seven wins came by that margin. The moneyline is the better way to back the Sabres in the latest Senators vs Sabres odds.

Senators vs Sabres NHL Picks

I’ve got two Buffalo shot props for my Senators vs Sabres NHL picks. BetMGM has both shot totals available, with prices checked early Wednesday.

• Rasmus Dahlin Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-110 at BetMGM)

Dahlin has 34 shots on goal in 11 games, good for 3.09 per night. He’s logging 24:40 a game, including 3:25 on the power play, so the volume has a steady floor.

Ottawa allows 27.2 shots per game and has given up 132 high-danger chances at 5-on-5, well above the league average of 108. That’s a friendly setup for a blueliner who shoots as often as Dahlin does.

• Tage Thompson Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+122 at BetMGM)

Thompson ranks second in the NHL with 63 shots on goal, or 4.5 per game. He fired 18 shots during the three-game California sweep that earned him First Star of the Week.

His 10 goals are tied for sixth in the league, putting him on the Rocket Richard Trophy odds radar. I’m wrapping up my Senators vs Sabres picks by riding that volume against a struggling Ottawa crease.

Senators vs Sabres Starting Goalies and Injuries

Colten Ellis is in line to start for Buffalo after taking the starter’s crease at Tuesday’s practice. He’s 3-1-0 with an .880 save percentage and a shutout. Ottawa hasn’t announced whether Johansson or Ersson gets the net.

Senators: Linus Ullmark (lower body, IR), Warren Foegele (knee, 3-4 weeks), William Eklund (ankle, 10-12 weeks), Andre Burakovsky (lower body, IR).

Sabres: Konsta Helenius (upper body, week to week), Alex Lyon (upper body, days away), Conor Timmins (lower body, not expected Wednesday), Justin Danforth (upper body, IR), Matt Grzelcyk (lower body, IR), Jack Rathbone (undisclosed, non-roster IR).

Zach Benson will play after a maintenance day Monday, and Jiri Kulich could be an option after clearing concussion protocol.