Thursday CFB Props: Touchdown Picks & Best Bets (Nov. 5)
By Chris Amberley in College Football
Published:
- Thursday’s CFB slate brings two high-scoring matchups to the prop market
- I am targeting backfield volume and steady quarterback touchdown production
- Keep reading for my top Thursday college football props, including touchdown picks and best bets for Nov. 5, below
Thursday’s Week 10 college football slate features James Madison–Southern Miss and UTSA–FAU. College football player props give bettors another way to attack matchup edges.
James Madison brings a high-scoring offense into Hattiesburg to face Southern Miss. In Boca Raton, UTSA visits a Florida Atlantic squad that has been efficient on third down.
Instead of sweating out a tight spread or a volatile moneyline in the college football odds, I’m attacking three player props where the production supports the price. Let’s dive into my Thursday CFB props, including touchdown picks and best bets for Nov. 5.
Thursday College Football Player Props
Odds as of November 4 at bet365. Sign up with the bet365 promo code and get a bonus to use tonight.
Seth Cromwell’s -220 price to score implies about a 68.8% chance, so the case rests on his workload. Caden Veltkamp’s over 2.5 passing TD at -110 implies roughly 52.4%, and his season touchdown pace is the main reason I’m comfortable laying the juice.
Thursday CFB Touchdown Picks and Best Bets
College Football Prop Pick #1: Seth Cromwell Anytime Touchdown
James Madison has averaged 39.1 points and 450.9 total yards per game this season. The Dukes have scored on 41 of their 44 trips inside the 20-yard line, a 93.2% red-zone scoring rate that includes field goals.
That gives running back Seth Cromwell chances near the goal line. In his first start last game, he handled 23 carries for 135 yards and one touchdown.
Southern Miss has recorded 22 sacks this season, which should incentivize JMU to keep the ball on the ground. Cromwell’s workload in that first start is the key number for this prop, and that volume justifies the steep price.
- Pick: Seth Cromwell Anytime TD Scorer (-220 at bet365)
College Football Prop Pick #2: Caden Veltkamp Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns
Caden Veltkamp leads a Florida Atlantic attack that generates 37.5 points and 440 total yards per game. Through eight games, he has completed 227 of 316 passes (71.8%) for 2,536 yards, 23 touchdowns and five interceptions.
That works out to nearly three touchdown passes per game. The Owls also convert 52.7% of their third downs, which keeps drives alive and creates more scoring chances through the air.
UTSA’s defense has nine sacks and seven interceptions, so this is not a free pass. In a matchup featuring two productive offenses, I like Veltkamp to throw for at least three scores.
Compare prices across the best college football betting apps before placing this prop.
- Pick: Caden Veltkamp Over 2.5 Passing TDs (-110 at bet365)
College Football Prop Pick #3: Will Henderson Touchdown Prop
UTSA arrives in Boca Raton averaging 33.2 points per contest.
Running back Will Henderson has carried the ball 109 times for 664 yards and five rushing touchdowns this season.
Henderson’s rushing volume is the core of this case. With five rushing touchdowns on 109 carries, he has shown he can finish drives himself.
- Pick: Will Henderson Anytime TD Scorer (-370 at bet365)
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
