Thursday College Football Picks: Predictions & Best Bets (Nov. 5)
By Chris Amberley in College Football
Updated: November 5, 2026 at 8:27 am ESTPublished:
- Thursday college football brings three games to the primetime window
- I am leaning on strong recent form for my spread and total picks
- Read below for my Thursday CFB picks, including my the top predictions and best bets for Nov. 5
Three games fill the Thursday night college football slate. UTSA visits Florida Atlantic, James Madison heads to Southern Miss and South Carolina State travels to Howard.
I priced every pick in the college football odds on Kalshi, where a contract’s price reflects the market’s implied probability. Instead of laying steep moneyline prices on two heavy favorites, I am targeting spread markets that pay closer to even money.
Below, I break down my Thursday college football picks, including the top predictions and best bets for all three games.
Thursday College Football Picks
Kalshi prices as of Nov. 4 at 10:33 p.m. ET.
A winning contract pays $1. At 50¢, the break-even probability is 50% before fees. The two spread positions offer a larger potential return than the favorites’ moneylines, but require them to win by the listed margin. See our Kalshi promo code details for the current offer.
Thursday College Football Predictions and Best Bets
Thursday College Football Pick #1: UTSA vs FAU Over 72.5
UTSA arrives at 7-1 overall and 4-0 in American play, riding a five-game winning streak.
The Roadrunners showed what this offense looks like at full speed in a 42-19 win at Tulane on Oct. 24. They piled up 223 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns while forcing six takeaways.
Florida Atlantic (5-3) is coming off a 48-41 loss to North Texas on Oct. 29. That game alone cleared this total by 16 points.
That combination is exactly what I want against a 72.5 number. UTSA’s ground game finishes drives, and extra possessions from its defense can push the scoring pace in a hurry. FAU just needs to hold up its end at home. Before making any wager tonight, scan the prediction market apps to find the best price.
- Pick: UTSA vs FAU Over 72.5
Thursday College Football Pick #2: James Madison -14.5
James Madison (7-2) brings one of the most complete profiles on the board. The Dukes average 39.1 points and 450.9 yards per game, including 202.1 rushing yards, while allowing just 18.9 points per game. Those numbers are on par with some of the top National Championship odds contenders.
Their 93.2% red-zone scoring rate means trips inside the 20 almost always end in points. Covering two touchdowns on the road takes consistent finishing, and JMU rarely comes away empty-handed.
The Dukes are also 3-1 on the road. Their last two games were overtime losses, which shows how close this team is to an even better record, and a balanced offense like this one is built to win by margin.
- Pick: James Madison -14.5
Thursday College Football Pick #3: South Carolina State -15.5
South Carolina State (7-2) is scoring at a pace that makes a 16-point margin look reachable. The Bulldogs have put up 378 points through nine games, an average of 42.0 per game.
Recent form backs it up. South Carolina State rolled Morgan State 51-10 on the road on Oct. 29, five days after a 22-7 win over Norfolk State.
That is a 73-17 scoring edge across the last two games. The Bulldogs have shown they can bury opponents early and lock things down defensively, and Howard has to prove at home that it can keep pace.
- Pick: South Carolina State -15.5
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
