UFC Fight Night Prelims Picks & Predictions: Best Bets Include Bashi vs Calderon

• Austin Bashi meets short-notice replacement Carlos Calderon on Saturday’s UFC prelims
• The method-of-victory markets offer better prices on the two biggest favorites
• See my UFC Fight Night prelims picks, predictions, and best bets including Bashi vs Calderon, below

UFC Fight Night returns to the Meta APEX in Las Vegas today. The prelims start at 5 pm ET on Paramount+ in the US, with Cortes-Acosta vs Walker headlining the main card at 8 pm ET.

All 16 prelim fighters made weight at Friday’s official weigh-ins. The biggest shake-up came Wednesday, when Carlos Calderon stepped in for an injured Lucas Brennan against Austin Bashi.

Bashi and Seokhyeon Ko are my picks to win, but I’d rather bet on how they get there. Delano vs Magomedov is the one fight where I’ll play the winner straight.

UFC Fight Night Prelims Odds

Odds as of Saturday, November 7 at BetMGM.

Ko and Bashi are the heaviest favorites on the UFC Fight Night prelims, while Delano vs Magomedov sits near a pick’em. Compare prices across the top UFC betting apps.

UFC Fight Night Prelims Predictions

Those are my winners for all eight fights. Three stay off my bet slip: Souza, Kondratavicius and Petersen.

Jose Souza is 9-1 and coming off a May split decision over Ding Meng. Jonny Parsons hasn’t fought since his July 2023 UFC debut, a TKO of Danny Roberts, so I’ll take the more active fighter.

Mantas Kondratavicius is 9-1, with four straight wins capped by a March decision over Trocoli. Andre Petroski has dropped three in a row, which makes Kondratavicius my side.

Thomas Petersen has alternated wins and losses across seven UFC starts, most recently a submission loss to Valter Walker. Gabriel Lorenço debuts on eight straight wins, four of them first-round finishes. Octagon experience is my reason for Petersen, but Lorenço’s finishing power keeps this a modest lean.

UFC Fight Night Prelims Best Bets

Bashi vs Calderon Best Bet: Austin Bashi by Submission

• UFC Prelims Pick #1: Austin Bashi by submission (-125 at BetMGM)

The preparation advantage drives my Bashi vs Calderon prediction. Bashi was already scheduled for this card, while Calderon accepted a short-notice UFC debut.

Calderon is no pushover, arriving with 11 wins and eight finishes. But he’s had only a few days to prepare for a fighter who averages 6.09 takedowns per 15 minutes. Bashi kept getting back to Dorian Ramos’ back on Contender Series and secured a rear-naked choke in the second round. I’ll take that route at -125 over laying -667 on Bashi to win.

Ko vs Turman Prediction: Seokhyeon Ko by Decision

• UFC Prelims Pick #2: Seokhyeon Ko by decision or technical decision (+125 at BetMGM)

Seokhyeon Ko wins by taking opponents down and controlling them, a style that suits a matchup with a fighter coming off a long layoff. Wellington Turman hasn’t competed since December 2023 after a planned summer return was canceled when his opponent fell ill.

Ko’s July decision loss to Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani ended his winning start in the UFC. Against Turman, my prediction comes down to Ko reestablishing the takedown-and-control approach that brought him his earlier wins. He used it to take the third round against Igor Cavalcanti on Contender Series and won a unanimous decision. I like Ko to bank rounds again at +125.

Delano vs Magomedov Prediction: Jose Delano Moneyline

• UFC Prelims Pick #3: Jose Delano moneyline (-120 at BetMGM)

This is the closest fight on the prelims and the toughest call. Jose Delano has won five straight, most recently an April decision over Ruchala.

Murtazali Magomedov is 11-0 with every win by finish, including a Scottish twister of Baghdasaryan in June. My Delano prediction favors the fighter coming off a successful three-round performance against Robert Ruchala to manage the pace and edge another decision.

Silva vs Fernandes Pick: Karine Silva by Submission

• UFC Prelims Pick #4: Karine Silva by submission (+200 at BetMGM)

My Silva vs Fernandes pick is Karine Silva to get back in the win column. Gabriella Fernandes owns a win over Wang Cong, but Silva has more than one way to catch her on the mat.

Silva finished Poliana Botelho with a D’Arce choke and Ketlen Souza with a kneebar. Against Maryna Moroz, she lost top position and still found a guillotine with a second left in the first round. Those were three different holds in three UFC fights. At +200, I want the tap rather than the -250 moneyline.

Nakamura vs Schmid Prediction: Keiichiro Nakamura by KO/TKO

• UFC Prelims Pick #5: Keiichiro Nakamura by KO/TKO or DQ (-189 at BetMGM)

Keiichiro Nakamura has won eight straight with seven finishes, including a Road to UFC tournament TKO of Szalay in February. Ollie Schmid makes his second UFC appearance and his first after a full camp, following a short-notice debut against Rahiki in May.

The full camp should help Schmid. I still side with Nakamura’s finishing run. His stoppage of Szalay is the blueprint here: I’m betting on Nakamura to put Schmid away with strikes rather than laying -385 for any win.

The BetMGM promo code is available for eligible new customers betting on today’s prelims.