Texas State vs Oregon State Prediction, Picks & Odds ⁠- Saturday CFB Finale

• Two offenses averaging more than 38 points per game meet at Reser Stadium on Saturday night
• Sportradar betting splits show a clear gap between tickets and handle on the total
• Read below for my Texas State vs Oregon State prediction and best bet

The Oregon State Beavers (5-3, 3-1 Pac-12) host the Texas State Bobcats (4-4, 2-2 Pac-12) in a late-night conference matchup at Reser Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM PT / 10:30 PM ET on Saturday night on The CW.

Texas State arrives following a 46-45 loss to Boise State, a game in which its offense did more than enough to win. Oregon State returns to Corvallis as a 5.5-point home favorite with the total sitting at 71.5 after dropping their latest outing 38-22 to Fresno State.

Below, I break down the Texas State vs Oregon State odds, the public betting splits and the statistical matchup behind my pick. Compare prices at the top College Football betting apps before kickoff.

Texas State vs Oregon State Prediction

• Prediction: Oregon State 41, Texas State 34
• Pick: Over 71.5 (-105 at BetMGM)

I expect a track meet at Reser Stadium. Texas State averages 38.1 points per game and Oregon State averages 40.1, so the two offenses combine for 78.2 on their season numbers. Texas State’s run game and Oregon State’s passing production give both sides a way to keep drives moving.

Texas State quarterback Brad Jackson is coming off a big performance. Against Boise State, he threw for 327 yards and four touchdowns, adding 54 rushing yards and another score. Chris Dawn caught five passes for 71 yards and a touchdown in that game.

On the season, Jackson has 1,933 passing yards, 18 touchdowns and five interceptions, plus 436 rushing yards and six scores. Running back Torrance Burgess adds 922 rushing yards at 7.1 yards per carry with five touchdowns.

Oregon State’s clearest edge comes through the air. Braden Atkinson has thrown for 2,977 yards, 25 touchdowns and two interceptions while completing 66.9% of his passes.

The Beavers average 383.4 passing yards per game, and Texas State has allowed 295.4 passing yards and 32.0 points per game. That matchup should keep Oregon State scoring, while the Bobcats’ ground game gives them a reliable way to answer.

Texas State vs Oregon State Odds

Oregon State is a 5.5-point home favorite with a -233 moneyline. Removing the vig from those prices gives the Beavers a 67.0% win probability and Texas State 33.0%.

A $20 wager on Oregon State’s moneyline returns $8.58 in profit, while $20 on the Bobcats at +190 would net $38.00. The Over costs -105, compared with -114 for the Under.

Texas State vs Oregon State Public Betting Splits

According to Sportradar data, the moneyline College Football betting splits are one-sided. Oregon State holds 93% of the tickets and 94% of the handle, so bettors broadly expect the Beavers to win at home.

The total tells a different story. The Under has drawn 70% of the tickets, but the Over has attracted 64% of the handle on just 29% of the tickets. That gap means Over bets carry larger average wagers than Under bets. The larger wagers lean toward points in this Texas State vs Oregon State matchup.

Texas State vs Oregon State Stats

Oregon State’s 87.2% red zone scoring rate, with 28 touchdowns on 39 trips, supports a big number from the home side. Texas State has scored on 26 of 36 red zone trips, including 21 touchdowns. With Jackson contributing on the ground and through the air, I expect enough answers from the Bobcats to push this total into the mid-70s.