College Football Playoff Elimination Scenarios for Week 10

• Week 10 brings seven games with real weight in the CFP bracket
• No. 11 Notre Dame hosts No. 1 Miami with its Top-12 path at stake
• Read below for the Week 10 College Football Playoff elimination scenarios

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The committee finally showed its hand Tuesday. Miami sits No. 1 in the first CFP rankings, with Georgia, Utah and Indiana holding the other three first-round byes.

Notre Dame is the last team in the projected College Football Playoff bracket at No. 11, while No. 12 Ohio State is the first team out.

The CFP has no automatic loss cutoff. These elimination scenarios assess realistic at-large chances, and several games are practical must-wins, and they’ll shake up the national championship odds too.

CFP Rankings Entering Week 10

Here’s where the committee slots Saturday’s key teams.

Miami vs Notre Dame Playoff Elimination Scenarios

• Notre Dame needs this one. A loss likely ends its realistic playoff bid, while a win over No. 1 transforms its résumé without clinching anything. Miami remains a strong contender even with a first loss.

7:30 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock

Finish in the committee’s Top 12 and Notre Dame is in. But there’s no conference title game to fall back on, and Boston College, SMU and Syracuse are all that’s left after Miami. None of them are in the CFP top 25.

Lose, and the Irish sit at 7-2 with a 28-24 loss to BYU and no ranked win left to chase. Barring serious chaos, that ends any realistic bid.

Win, and ND owns a victory over the No. 1 team. That doesn’t punch a ticket in November, but it carries all the way to Selection Day.

Miami is playing for seeding, not survival. The Canes are 6-0 in ACC play, and a nonconference loss doesn’t touch that lead, though Malachi Toney is expected to miss the game with a high ankle injury.

BYU vs Utah: CFP Scenarios and Big 12 Title Race

• Utah would build a two-game conference cushion over BYU with a win. A BYU victory would leave both with one Big 12 loss and give the Cougars the head-to-head edge.

Noon ET, ABC

Utah is 5-0 in Big 12 play, with BYU and Texas Tech one game back at 4-1. Utah and BYU are both in the projected field, so this one is about league control and a bye.

Whatever the BYU vs Utah odds say, a Utah loss would put its No. 3 spot and bye in jeopardy.

A BYU loss would do serious damage to its Big 12 hopes. But wins over No. 11 Notre Dame and No. 22 Arizona mean the Cougars wouldn’t be written off.

On The Pat McAfee Show, ESPN’s Rece Davis noted that 10 of the committee’s top 14 teams play each other this week, and said the results will sort plenty out.

Ohio State Playoff Chances: What the Oregon Game Means

• Ohio State is already the first team out, so a third loss is a practical at-large elimination. A fourth loss effectively ends Oregon’s at-large bid.

3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

No. 12 isn’t good enough. No. 25 Boise State takes the fifth automatic bid as the highest-ranked team from the other six FBS conferences, which bumps the Buckeyes out.

Coming off a 30-18 loss at USC, OSU can’t afford another. Northwestern, Nebraska and Michigan are all that’s left, and none are in the CFP top 25, so a home loss leaves no ranked win to rebuild with.

Winning the Big Ten would still punch a ticket. But at 4-1, a loss behind unbeaten UCLA and level with Indiana, a second league loss would leave OSU needing help just to reach the title game.

For Oregon, this is the elimination game. The No. 23 Ducks are 5-3, and a fourth loss caps them at 8-4 in the regular season. That isn’t an at-large résumé.

SEC Playoff Picture: Four Games Shake Up the Race

Georgia and Kentucky lead the SEC at 5-1. Alabama and Ole Miss are 4-2, with LSU, Missouri, Tennessee and Texas at 3-2. The automatic bid requires reaching Atlanta and winning there.

Georgia vs Ole Miss Playoff Implications

• Georgia has a cushion either way. For Ole Miss, a third loss is a practical at-large elimination, with no ranked opponents left after Georgia.

7:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Ole Miss doesn’t have that luxury at No. 10. Oklahoma, Wofford and Mississippi State finish the schedule, and none of them are in the CFP top 25.

Kentucky vs Tennessee CFP Scenarios

• Tennessee needs this win to pair No. 6 Kentucky with its win over Alabama. Kentucky can absorb a second loss.

6:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

Kentucky is 7-1 and tied with Georgia atop the SEC at 5-1. A loss would cost the Wildcats a share of that lead, but No. 6 gives them room to stay in the at-large mix.

Tennessee sits just outside the field at No. 13. Beating Kentucky would give the Vols two wins over current top-six teams, the kind of résumé that pushes a team into the bracket.

Alabama vs LSU: Who Can Stay in the CFP Race?

• A loss would be a major blow for LSU at No. 14, but Texas and Tennessee still give the Tigers room to rebuild their résumé. Alabama has wins over Kentucky and South Carolina to lean on.

3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

The Alabama vs LSU odds frame a game between teams with different conference records: Bama is 4-2 to LSU’s 3-2.

Lose, and LSU drops to 6-3 from outside the field. Still, Texas and No. 13 Tennessee are on the schedule, and beating both would give the Tigers something to show the committee.

Bama has more to fall back on. It already owns wins over No. 6 Kentucky and No. 21 South Carolina, with Vanderbilt, Chattanooga and Auburn left.

Texas vs Missouri Playoff Scenarios

• A loss pushes Missouri to the fringe, with a rescue requiring wins over Georgia and Kentucky. Texas already has wins over Ohio State, Tennessee and Ole Miss in the bank.

Noon ET, ESPN

Both sit at 3-2 in the SEC. Missouri is No. 18 and outside the field, with Georgia next and Kentucky still to come. Lose here, and beating both would be the clearest way to rebuild their case.

Texas carries a sturdier résumé into Columbia. Wins over Ohio State, No. 13 Tennessee and No. 10 Ole Miss give the Longhorns more to lean on, even with LSU, Arkansas and Texas A&M left.