Turhan vs Baumgardner Prediction, Odds & Picks for Sunday’s Lightweight Title Fight
By Jaren Kawada in Boxing
Published:
- Alycia Baumgardner moves up to challenge Elif Nur Turhan for the IBF women’s lightweight title
- Baumgardner looks to become a two-division champion in the MVPW 07 main event on ESPN
- Check out the best analysis, predictions and bets for the top fights of MVPW 07: Elif Nur Turhan vs. Alycia Baumgardner below
After years of dominating the super featherweight division, Alycia Baumgardner (18-1, 1 NC) is finally moving up to challenge IBF women’s lightweight champion Elif Nur Turhan (14-0) on Sunday night. The former undisputed 130-pound queen looks to begin a second title reign at the College Park Center in Arlington, Texas.
Baumgardner, 32, makes her lightweight debut after spending the first 18 fights of her professional career at super featherweight. ‘The Bomb’ moves up on a 13-fight unbeaten streak, including an 8-0 (1 NC) run in 130-pound title fights.
The American’s 135-pound debut comes against the 31-year-old Turhan, who enters her third IBF title defense. The Turkish power puncher is coming off a unanimous decision win over Gabriela Tellez in June.
MVPW 07: Elif Nur Turhan vs. Alycia Baumgardner Odds
Odds as of Nov. 8, 2026, on bet365 Sportsbook. Check out the best boxing apps in 2026 to place a wager.
Elif Nur Turhan vs. Alycia Baumgardner Prediction
Elif Nur Turhan is not an easy stepping stone for ‘The Bomb,’ but this fight remains Alycia Baumgardner’s to lose. Even in her lightweight debut, the 32-year-old American has the physicality, speed and boxing prowess to give Turhan fits and become a two-division champion.
Turhan’s great equalizer is her right hand, which has given many fighters problems in the past. That could be an issue for Baumgardner’s occasional defensive lapses. Baumgardner’s penchant for being in the fire allows her to be one of the most active female boxers, but it has also led to her being one of the most hittable champions.
But more often than not, Turhan’s signature right hand comes without much setup, and her poor distance management causes a lot of reaching and lunging. Even with Baumgardner content to sit in the pocket, that gives the champion a very narrow path to victory against an elite boxer who has been controlling most of her recent fights with her jab.
- MVPW 07 Boxing Picks: Alycia Baumgardner by Decision (-225 on bet365)
Ramla Ali vs. Mikiah Kreps Prediction
In her second opportunity to become a world champion, Ramla Ali takes on the undefeated Mikiah Kreps. Although she has had a career full of disappointing outcomes, the 37-year-old Somalian has a golden opportunity in front of her to finally break through and win gold.
Since her knockout loss to Alejandra Guzman, Ali has adopted a much more conservative approach, fighting behind a heavy dose of jabs and improved distance management. Although she fell short against Yamileth Mercado in her first title shot, the smarter approach led to a win in her rematch with Guzman, as well as convincing decisions over Monika Singh and Lila Furtado.
Kreps will bring pressure to Ali, but without a consistent jab or technical setups, she will find it difficult to consistently get into range against Ali’s superior boxing. Kreps’ skills are limited behind her pressure, forcing her to overcome Ali’s improving jab with nothing but telegraphed blitzes.
Without much knockout threat from either woman, the better boxer gains an increasing edge the longer the fight goes.
- MVPW 07 Boxing Picks: Ramla Ali Moneyline (+175 on bet365)
Skye Nicolson vs. Miyo Yoshida Best Bet
Of the five world title fights on MVPW 07, Skye Nicolson easily has the best matchup. The WBC super bantamweight champion has an extremely favorable matchup on her hands against the tough but beatable Miyo Yoshida.
Since her shocking loss to Tiara Brown, Nicolson is a clean 4-0 after moving down to 122 pounds. Although yet to face anyone who could truly threaten her status atop the division, the competition level remains the same against the 38-year-old Yoshida, who is just 5-4 in her last nine fights.
Nicolson is enormous for 122 pounds and will maintain her usual size advantage against the Japanese challenger. Nicolson is two inches taller with a seven-inch reach advantage, which she maximizes with her jab and pristine footwork.
Yoshida will pressure, but she lacks the physicality required to smother Nicolson and negate her jab. Barring an uncharacteristically dull performance from the champion, this will be a clean victory for Nicolson in her inaugural MVP appearance. Unfortunately, oddsmakers are all over the overwhelmingly likely decision.
- MVPW07 Boxing Picks: Skye Nicolson by Decision (-700 on bet365)
Irma Garcia vs. Nataly Delgado Best Bet
The 45-year-old Irma Garcia’s improbable title run continues with another defense, this time against the surging Nataly Delgado. Garcia, who continues to defy the odds, this time enters in a pick ’em.
It is difficult to doubt Garcia at this point, but her time might finally be up. The upset-minded champion faces another streaking fighter coming off a surprising victory. Delgado, who is 13 years younger than Garcia, is significantly faster with crisper boxing.
While both have a tendency to get wild when the temperature increases, Delgado’s boxing will allow her to win the quiet moments in between the wildfire. Garcia has thrived on chaos during her current win streak.
Fresh off arguably the biggest win of her career, Garcia’s five-month turnaround is her shortest period between fights since 2022. That seemingly minor factor carries significant weight for a 45-year-old titleholder preparing for her 32nd professional fight.
- MVPW 07 Boxing Picks: Nataly Delgado Moneyline (-110 on bet365)
Jaren Kawada is a combat sports betting analyst for Sports Betting Dime, pairing his working knowledge as a former amateur boxer transitioning to MMA with his decade-long journalism experience. Jaren is also an avid and dedicated NFL, NBA and college sports handicapper.
