Early ATS Picks for Week 11: College Football Predictions Against the Spread

• The Week 11 college football odds board is taking shape and I’ve spotted some value to bet right now
• The early market has already moved sharply in two of my Week 11 ATS picks
• Read below for my early ATS picks for Week 11, including the top college football predictions against the spread

The college football calendar turns to Week 11, and the slate is loaded with early ATS value. Miami fell to No. 5 in the AP poll after a 31-24 loss at Notre Dame last week, while Georgia now sits at No. 1 as the College Football Playoff odds take shape.

Looking at the college football odds board, the 8-1 Hurricanes are heavy home favorites against the Duke Blue Devils in Week 11, while Wake Forest hits the road to face SMU in Dallas, and Houston travels to Colorado.

Here are my early ATS picks for Week 11, including the top college football predictions against the spread.

Early ATS Picks for Week 11 College Football

Two of my three early spread targets are underdogs. Duke catches nearly two touchdowns in Miami Gardens and Wake Forest gets 1.5 points in Dallas, while Houston lays a double-digit number on the road. Early numbers can move quickly, so check the latest lines before you bet.

College Football Prediction Against the Spread #1: Duke +13.5 vs. Miami

Miami is a National Championship odds contender that boasts a potent offense averaging 44.6 points per game and a 52.9% third-down conversion rate. However, Duke has an offensive profile of its own, averaging 32.8 points with an 87.2% red-zone efficiency rating and a solid +4 turnover differential.

My Duke vs. Miami prediction leans on Duke’s ball security and efficient red-zone execution to keep this game within the number. Miami is also coming off a game in which it allowed 31 points to Notre Dame.

The market has moved toward Duke. Miami opened at -21 and has dropped to -13.5, with Duke drawing 69% of the handle on 57.8% of the tickets, according to the college football public betting trends. The risk is that much of the early value is gone, but I am still backing Duke to cover.

College Football Prediction Against the Spread #2: Wake Forest +1.5 vs. SMU

Wake Forest takes its offense to Dallas averaging 42.4 points per game with a 93.5% red-zone efficiency rate. SMU averages 36.6 points per game and struggles with a -4 turnover differential.

Wake Forest also holds the edge on third down, converting 51.4% of its chances compared to 47.7% for SMU. My Wake Forest vs. SMU prediction backs the Demon Deacons’ superior ball security and +4 turnover margin as live road underdogs.

This spread has completely flipped. SMU opened as a 3.5-point underdog and now sits as a 1.5-point favorite, even with Wake Forest drawing 75.7% of the handle. That move against the money is the main risk, but the matchup numbers still favor Wake Forest. Compare prices across the best College Football betting apps before you lock it in.

College Football Prediction Against the Spread #3: Houston -10.5 vs. Colorado

Houston averages 35.4 points per game and converts 59.3% of its third downs. Colorado manages just 19.8 points per game and struggles with ball security, carrying a -11 turnover differential.

Houston also boasts a +7 turnover margin and an efficient 84.4% red-zone conversion rate. My Houston vs. Colorado prediction expects the Cougars to pull away and cover the double-digit spread.

The spread has held steady at -10.5, so the market has not pushed back on Houston. A late Colorado score could still swing the cover. Check each team’s ATS records and trends before betting.