Thursday NHL Player Props: Anytime Goalscorer Picks & Best Bets (Nov. 12)

• I’m keeping my Thursday NHL player props card to three anytime goalscorer picks from an 11-game slate
• One target is converting more than a quarter of his shots, and another is putting over four pucks on net per game
• See below for all three picks and their Novig prices

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Thursday brings 11 games, but I’m not chasing every one of them. My Thursday NHL player props card sticks to three shooters with the volume and matchups I trust most.

Each pick is a Novig Yes contract on the player scoring at least once. Prices are as of 1:09-1:12am ET on Nov. 12 and are subject to change.

A contract pays $1 if your player scores, so the Yes price doubles as the market’s implied chance. A 40¢ price, for example, works out to about a 40% implied chance before fees.

Anytime Goalscorer Picks for Thursday, Nov. 12

Kirill Kaprizov Anytime Goal Pick: Wild at Maple Leafs

I’m starting with Kirill Kaprizov, who has 17 goals and 15 assists through 20 games. That’s 0.85 goals per game, and he’s backing it up with 62 shots, or 3.1 per night, while logging 21:29 of ice time.

His 27.4% shooting rate is the highest on this card. That number measures finishing, not his chance of scoring tonight, but it shows how few looks he needs. Six of his goals have come on the power play, so he isn’t relying on even-strength chances alone.

Toronto is 8-10-2 and has allowed 70 goals in 20 games, or 3.5 per contest. Minnesota is 13-3-4 with 65 goals scored and is the moneyline favorite on the road. Kaprizov’s 48.5¢ Yes price implies roughly a 48.5% chance, and I’ll take that against this defense.

The Wild don’t need him to repeat one of his multi-goal nights. Kaprizov has scored in 13 of his 20 games, including three of his last five. He had one shot against Montreal and scored on it, but fired five against Tampa Bay without scoring. I’d rather back the larger sample than either of those extremes.

Kyle Connor Anytime Goal Pick: Jets at Stars

Kyle Connor is my volume play. He has 15 goals and 6 assists in 19 games, and his 81 shots come out to about 4.3 per game, the heaviest workload of my three picks.

Seven of those 15 goals came on the power play, and he’s skating 21:31 a night. He’s converting 18.5% of his shots, and he gets enough of them that he doesn’t need a perfect night to find the net.

Dallas is the toughest test on this card. The Stars are 10-5-2 and have allowed just 41 goals in 17 games, about 2.4 per contest, while Winnipeg comes in at 8-8-3. I’m still buying Connor at 38¢, about a 38% implied chance, because a shooter with this much volume can beat a stingy defense.

Connor scored twice on seven shots against New Jersey in his last outing. He went without a goal on four shots against Tampa Bay and two against Vancouver before that. Across the season, he has scored in 11 of 19 games. That frequency is why I’m willing to take the tougher matchup here.

Brady Tkachuk Anytime Goal Pick: Red Wings at Panthers

I’m closing the card with Brady Tkachuk at home against Detroit. He has 10 goals and 10 assists in 19 games for Florida, with 68 shots, or roughly 3.6 per game.

His 14.7% shooting rate trails the other two, and his 16:43 of ice time is lighter. Tkachuk makes up for it by setting up shop around the crease and keeping pucks on net, and four of his 10 goals have come on the power play.

Detroit is 7-9-3 and has allowed 59 goals in 19 games, about 3.1 per night. Florida is 10-7-2 and hosts at 7:30 p.m. ET. Tkachuk’s 38¢ Yes price implies about a 38% chance, and his shot volume against a defense giving up more than three goals per game is worth that price.

The risk is in how those goals are distributed: Tkachuk’s 10 goals have come in just five games. He scored twice on seven shots against Washington, then went scoreless on eight shots against Boston and two against Columbus. A multi-goal night pays the same as a single goal on this contract.

That’s my full set of anytime goalscorer picks for Thursday. Novig prices can shift once lineups and starting goalies are confirmed, so check the board before you buy.