Parlay These Week 10 NFL Player Props for Chance at 35-1 Payday

• When it comes to star players who receive plenty of valuable touches, their ceilings are much higher than the standard over/under lines that are set for their yardage
• This makes betting alternate lines, or milestones, valuable with the right players
• See the four players I am parlaying to each have a big game in Week 10

I’m not here to say there’s anything wrong with betting standard over/under NFL props. I am just a firm believer that due to the right-skewed variance and fat-tailed distribution we see in yardage props for star players, that heightened milestones present much better value. Plus, when I make a good read, I want to make sure I’m paid out appropriately.

After isolating all the players who meet my strict thresholds for valuable opportunities, four of them stood out as having advantageous situations (opponent and spread/total of the game) and player prop lines that lag well behind their potential ceilings in Week 10. I have parlayed these four players together for a big potential 35-1 payout.

NFL Player Prop Parlay for Week 10

A couple of the players in my Week 10 prop parlay have been consistently reaching the milestones I am betting them to achieve on Sunday. But, more importantly, all four have the underlying metrics – usage and quality opportunities – to reach these alternate prop lines.

The best odds I found for this four-leg player prop parlay were +3565 at FanDuel. But you can also put in a bid on any of these milestones at prediction market apps to see if you can get an even better price. They even allow for “combo” betting now, which is their form of parlays.

James Cook III 110+ Rushing Yards

• Opponent: Jets (26th vs Run)
• Standard Rushing Line: 91.5

As I have written about in previous weeks, James Cook’s offensive line provides him with a lot of room to run, as he averages 2.01 yards before contact per carry. He adds an extra 2.8 yards after contact per carry as well, thanks to his 15.4% missed tackle forced rate, which has led to a strong 14.2% explosive run (10+ yards) rate.

When you pair his explosiveness and efficient 4.82 average yards per carry with his great usage – 71.4% early-down carry share and Buffalo’s neutral-situation run rate of 47.1% – you get a running back who could go off any given week.

What makes Cook a great bet to go for 110+ rushing yards in Week 10 is his opponent: the Jets. New York ranks 26th against the run, largely due to them allowing 2.75 yards after contact per carry, resulting from their 14.2 missed tackle rate. I expect Cook to take advantage with multiple explosive runs, and even some extra opportunity with the Bills laying 7.5 points too.

Chris Olave 80+ Receiving Yards

• Opponent: Panthers (9th vs Pass)
• Standard Receiving Line: 73.5

After a red-hot start to the season, Olave’s numbers have dipped a little bit recently, recording less than 57 receiving yards in three of his last four – two of those games came against top-three pass defenses. But he bounced back well last week, recording 98 yards on 12 targets.

I like Olave to continue getting back on track in Week 10 against the Panthers, since his underlying metrics remain very strong. He still has an elite WOPR of 0.756, calculated from his 28.1% target share (5th) and 47.8% air yards share (2nd), and has seen double-digit targets in six of eight games so far.

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While Jordyn Tyson’s snaps are likely to increase, and so will his opportunities, I see his presence being a benefit to Olave – taking some of the attention and freeing up Olave more often.

On the surface, his matchup doesn’t look great, as the Panthers rank 9th against the pass. But if you look a little deeper than the surface-level stats, you’ll see that the Panthers rank 20th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt and have allowed the 13th-most deep attempts in the NFL.

This prop milestone can be found with +115 odds at bet365, the best odds available for it as a straight bet at the time of writing.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba 100+ Receiving Yards

• Opponent: Raiders (26th vs Pass)
• Standard Receiving Line: 89.5

Jaxon Smith-Njigba commands the NFL’s premier opportunity profile. His 0.887 WOPR leads the league, as do his 50.1% air yards share, and 35.7% target share. This translates into 11 targets and 115.1 receiving yards per game.

But sportsbooks have softened his receiving over/under this week, as he will be catching passes from backup Drew Lock again. Though JSN’s numbers weren’t great last week when Lock started under center – just 51 yards – his other two games with Lock were just fine. One of those games was his season-high for receiving yards (155 vs the Cardinals in Week 2), and the other saw him record 122 yards against the Patriots.

Smith-Njigba will also benefit from a matchup with a Raiders defense that ranks 4th-worst in adjusted net yards per pass attempt allowed (7.36), and have allowed the most pass attempts of 20+ air yards (47) this season.

Plus, with Lock under center, the Seahawks offense is not going to be as efficient putting the ball in the endzone, likely keeping this game a bit more competitive than some would expect. This will give JSN more opportunities to continue racking up yardage.

Jaylen Warren 80+ Rushing Yards

• Opponent: Bengals (25th vs Run)
• Standard Rushing Line: 64.5

After a bit of a slow start to the season, where he only rushed for 89 yards combined across the first two weeks, Jaylen Warren has been on a tear lately:

• Week 8: 143 rushing yards on 17 carries
• Week 7: 101 rushing yards on 18 carries
• Week 6: 50 rushing yards on 14 carries (the outlier)
• Week 5: 101 rushing yards on 15 carries
• Week 4: 93 rushing yards on 17 carries
• Week 3: 127 rushing yards on 17 carries (vs Bengals)

He’s achieved 80+ rushing yards in five of his last six games, and has surpassed 100 in three of his last four.

His underlying metrics are very strong too. He averages an elite 5.92 yards per carry, with a whopping 4.14 of those yards coming after contact. Warren has been very explosive, possessing a 23.5% missed tackle forced rate and a 12.6% explosive carry rate (10+ yards).

While Warren comes up a little bit short on early-down carry share (62.7%) and the Steelers don’t run the ball often in neutral situations (35.3%), the RB’s knack for big plays, his matchup, and low over/under for rushing yards more than makes up for it.

The Bengals give up a very generous 3.61 yards after contact per carry, missing tackles at a 17.9% rate and allow explosive (10+ yard) runs on a very high 14.4% of rushing attempts. This is the perfect defense for Warren to exploit.

If you want to bet this one as a single as well, bet365 had the best odds at the time of writing this (+180).