Portugal vs Denmark Goalscorer Picks & Predictions (Nov 14)
By Miguel Alvim in Soccer News
Published:
- Denmark +1.5 (-150) handicap pick and Portugal vs Denmark betting predictions for Saturday’s Nations League clash
- Under 3.5 goals (-150) is our top total-goals prediction, with Portugal favored to win
- Goncalo Ramos anytime goalscorer (-110) headlines our three best Portugal vs Denmark bets
Portugal (4-0-0, 12 points, +5 GD) hosts Denmark (2-0-2, 6 points, 0 GD) in the UEFA Nations League on Saturday. Portugal has won all four of its matches and sits comfortably atop the group standings, while Denmark needs a stronger run of results to improve its position.
Kickoff is scheduled for 2:45 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 14, at Braga Municipal. Portugal enters as a heavy moneyline favorite, but can Denmark keep the game competitive?
Denmark vs Portugal Odds
Odds as of November 13 at Kalshi. Use SBD’s Kalshi odds converter to compare implied probabilities with traditional American odds.
Portugal is a heavy moneyline favorite, with Kalshi pricing a home victory at 65% (equivalent to -186 in American odds). Denmark is priced at 16% (+525), while a draw carries a 20% implied probability (+400).
After removing the sportsbook vig from traditional moneyline odds, the normalized implied probabilities give Portugal a 62.27% chance of winning, compared to 16.98% for Denmark and 20.75% for a draw.
Portugal opened as a -222 moneyline favorite, while its -1.5 handicap opened at +115 before moving to +130. The game total opened at 3.5 goals, with the Over moving from +125 to +135.
Portugal vs Denmark Picks, Predictions, and Player Props
Portugal enters as the clear favorite, but Denmark’s possession numbers and Portugal’s recent scoring trends offer some potential value on the handicap and total-goals markets. Here are three betting angles to consider.
ATS Pick: Denmark +1.5 (60% / -150, Kalshi)
Portugal is heavily favored on the moneyline, but Denmark +1.5 offers an alternative for bettors expecting a competitive contest. Take Denmark +1.5 at 60% / -150 on Kalshi.
Denmark has conceded seven goals through four matches, but the visitors average 52.0% possession. Portugal, meanwhile, has a +5 goal difference, averaging a +1.25 differential per game. That suggests the hosts have been winning comfortably without consistently running up the score. The +1.5 handicap gives Denmark room to lose by one goal and still cover.
Total-Goals Pick: Under 3.5 (60% / -150, Kalshi)
The Under 3.5 is another option in this matchup. Take the Under at 60% / -150 on Kalshi.
Portugal’s four matches have produced 13 combined goals, an average of 3.25 per game. Denmark’s fixtures have averaged 3.5 total goals. Portugal has also conceded just four goals in the competition, an average of 1.0 per match. If the hosts maintain that defensive standard, Denmark could struggle to contribute enough goals to push the total over 3.5.
Anytime Goalscorer Pick: Goncalo Ramos (-110, theScore Bet)
Goncalo Ramos is worth considering in the anytime goalscorer market at -110 on theScore Bet. The Portugal striker has scored three goals in the tournament, demonstrating his ability to capitalize on attacking opportunities. His positioning as a central striker gives him chances to finish crosses and deliveries into the penalty area.
Portugal vs Denmark H2H History: Last 5 Matches
Portugal has won four of the last five meetings between the teams.
Three of the last five meetings produced just one goal. However, the two most recent encounters were considerably higher-scoring, with six goals in the latest meeting and five in the one before it.
Both teams have averaged 50.0% possession across their last five meetings, highlighting how evenly matched they have been in terms of ball control.
Portugal vs Denmark Team Stats (Nations League)
Portugal has a clear advantage in attacking production, averaging 17.25 shots and 7.25 shots on target per game. The hosts also average 6.25 corner kicks per match, highlighting their ability to put opponents under pressure.
Denmark averages 12.00 shots per game, considerably fewer than Portugal. However, the visitors actually hold a slight advantage in possession, averaging 52.0% compared to Portugal’s 50.5%. That could help Denmark keep the game competitive and support the case for taking +1.5 on the handicap.
Injury Reports for Portugal vs Denmark
Portugal will be without Joao Cancelo (yellow cards) and Francisco Conceicao (red card) due to suspension, while Rafael Leao, Nuno Mendes, and Nuno Tavares are sidelined with injuries, according to Flashscore.
Meanwhile, Denmark will be without Andreas Christensen (thigh), Kasper Dolberg (knee), Patrick Dorgu (hamstring), and Christian Eriksen (heart condition). Thomas Jorgensen (undisclosed), Victor Nelsson (shoulder), and Yussuf Poulsen (thigh) are listed as questionable.
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With more than a decade of experience as a writer, editor, and content manager, Miguel has built a career creating engaging sports content for international audiences. He is multilingual journalist with a strong passion for numerous sports, especially soccer.
