UFC 334 Prelims Picks & Predictions (Nov. 14)

• The Octagon returns to Madison Square Garden tonight for UFC 334
• The Prelims card is loaded with value headlined by the Jim Miller vs Terrance McKinney bout
• See below for my UFC 334 Prelims picks and predictions for the Nov. 14 card

My UFC 334 prelims predictions cover all eight fights at Madison Square Garden tonight. The action gets underway at 5:15 pm ET, with the Main card beginning at 9:15 pm ET. Evan Elder and Samuel Sanches open the Prelims, while Jim Miller vs Terrance McKinney and Drew Dober vs Chris Duncan are also on the undercard.

Below, I’ll break down the UFC 334 Prelims bouts from every angle. Keep reading for my UFC 334 Prelims picks and predictions for the Nov. 14 card.

UFC 334 Prelims Odds

Odds as of Friday, November 13 at 7:07 p.m. ET at BetMGM. Compare these numbers across the best UFC betting apps before locking anything in.

Juan Diaz and Melquizael Costa share the shortest prices on the board at -400 apiece, with Beatriz Mesquita next at -263. Those are not numbers worth laying straight, no matter how comfortable the matchups look.

UFC 334 Prelims Predictions

UFC 334 Prelims Picks

Prices for my Prelims picks as of 12:51 a.m. ET on Nov. 14 at BetMGM. Sign up with the BetMGM promo code and get a bonus to use on any of tonight’s fights.

UFC 334 Prelims Pick: Elder vs Sanches Prediction

• UFC 334 Prelims Pick #1: Samuel Sanches moneyline (-120 at BetMGM)

Sanches has the shortest path to a bet for me in the opener. I like him to pressure Evan Elder, crowd his punches and make him defend on the fence. The moneyline pays the same if Sanches wins two rounds or finds a finish. At -120, I need him to win about 55% of the time.

Elder can spoil this by landing on the way in. Sanches has to score once he closes the distance. Forward pressure alone won’t win a close round.

UFC 334 Prelims Best Bet: Miller vs McKinney Prediction

• UFC 334 Prelims Pick #2: Terrance McKinney by KO/TKO or DQ (+125 at BetMGM)

McKinney knocked out Matt Frevola in seven seconds. That’s the opening I like against Jim Miller. At +125 I’d play the striking finish over McKinney’s -200 moneyline, even though a submission win would cost me the bet.

McKinney weighed 160.2 pounds Friday, 4.2 over the limit. If Miller ties him up and takes this fight late, I like the knockout prop a lot less.

UFC 334 Prelims Long-Shot Pick: Dober vs Duncan Prediction

• UFC 334 Prelims Pick #3: Chris Duncan by submission (+250 at BetMGM)

Duncan caught Jordan Vucenic in a guillotine and submitted Terrance McKinney with an anaconda choke at UFC 323. Against Drew Dober, I’d take +250 on another submission. That price needs to hit about two times in seven to break even.

Dober can punish Duncan for a sloppy entry. I’m backing Duncan to create a scramble and attack the neck instead of trading punches with Dober for three rounds.

Thompson vs Radtke Pick: Stephen Thompson by Decision

• UFC 334 Prelims Pick #4: Stephen Thompson by decision or technical decision (+125 at BetMGM)

I like Stephen Thompson to win rounds with the side kick against Charles Radtke. It lets Thompson score while making Radtke start his next exchange from outside punching range. If that pattern holds, the scorecards are a better bet for me at +125 than Thompson to win at -149.

Radtke pinning Thompson against the fence is the risk. Thompson needs space for that kick.

Chiasson vs Mesquita Best Bet: Bia Mesquita by Submission

• UFC 334 Prelims Pick #5: Bia Mesquita by submission (-139 at BetMGM)

Macy Chiasson has the range to make Bia Mesquita work for an entry. Once they hit the mat, I want the 10-time jiu-jitsu world champion. Mesquita submitted Irina Alekseeva in her UFC debut and can threaten a finish even when she starts underneath.

At -139, the submission needs to land about 58% of the time. I prefer that to laying -263 on Mesquita outright. Chiasson keeping it standing long enough to reach a decision would beat this pick.