Islanders vs Ducks Prediction, Puck Line & Saturday Picks

• The Islanders close their California trip against the Ducks at 10 p.m. ET Saturday
• Anaheim’s power play gets a second crack at the team that held it to 17 shots in October
• See how the outright price compares with asking either team to win by two goals

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The New York Islanders (8-6-4) visit the Anaheim Ducks (10-8-1) at Honda Center on Saturday night. Their first meeting came down to one goal. New York scored three times in the opening period on Oct. 20, then held on for a 3-2 win.

Anaheim looks quite different from the team that managed 17 shots that night. Cutter Gauthier has scored in seven consecutive games, and the Ducks won five straight before Nashville beat them 4-2 on Wednesday. New York comes in off a 5-2 win in Los Angeles on Thursday.

The outright prices have these teams nearly even. My Islanders vs Ducks prediction comes down to what New York can do at five-on-five and how much extra risk comes with asking the winner to cover a puck line.

Islanders vs Ducks Prediction

I like New York to win a close game. The case starts with how many different ways the Islanders created offense in Los Angeles. Five players scored, Ryan Pulock had two assists in his return to the blue line, and Brayden Schenn finished with a goal and two assists. Anaheim can take away one line and still have to defend a second one.

20-year-old Victor Eklund gives the Islanders another way to finish those possessions. He has scored in four straight games, including a net-front goal against the Kings. Schenn has assisted on six of Eklund’s seven goals this season. That connection matters against a Ducks team allowing 3.68 goals per game despite all the attention its scoring gets.

Semyon Varlamov is expected to be between the pipes tonight, opposing Lukas Dostal. Varlamov is 1-2-2 this season with a 2.72 GAA and an .892 save percentage. Dostal, on the other hand, has an elevated 3.76 GAA and a diminished .866 save percentage.

Also, the Ducks have been strangely ineffective at home, posting a 3-5-1 record. The Ducks are a sturdy 7-3-0 away from home, recording points at a 70% clip. At home, however, Anaheim has a sub-40.0% points percentage.

Islanders vs Ducks Special Teams Matchup

Penalties are the biggest threat to my pick. Anaheim is converting 36.8% of its power plays. Leo Carlsson has 17 power-play points among his team-leading 26 points, and Gauthier has scored 10 of his 16 goals this season on the man advantage. A pair of overlapping penalties would give the Ducks exactly the game they want.

Gauthier’s streak is more than a goal here and there. He scored 14 times across those seven games, including three hat tricks. New York dressed seven defensemen and 11 forwards Thursday with Jean-Gabriel Pageau day-to-day. If the Isles spend long stretches killing penalties, that leaves fewer fresh forwards for the shifts where I expect them to generate offense.

Islanders vs Ducks Puck Line

New York to win and New York -1.5 are two different calls. The Islanders’ 3-2 October win is a good example: they never surrendered the lead after the first period, but a puck-line ticket still would have lost. At 29¢ for New York to win by two or more, I’d have to count on a wider margin than I expect.

An empty-net goal can turn a one-goal lead into a cover. It can also go the other way when Anaheim gets its extra attacker on the ice and Carlsson has time to find Gauthier. If this reaches overtime tied, an Islanders winner cashes the outright pick and leaves the puck line a loss. I’m sticking with the one selection – New York to win.

Islanders vs Ducks Odds

Anaheim’s 51¢ outright price makes the Ducks only a narrow favorite. Its home-ice advantage and 3.74 goals per game are good reasons to respect that price. The gap between what the Ducks score and what they concede is why I see more appeal in the Islanders to win than in either team to win by multiple goals.

Puck drop is at 10 p.m. ET at Honda Center. MSGSN carries the Islanders broadcast, with streaming on ESPN+ subject to local availability. If you’re comparing the late game across NHL betting apps, check whether the winner market includes overtime and a shootout before comparing it with a regulation-only price.