2026 Oscars Odds: One Battle After Another Leads Best Picture Race

• See the latest betting odds for all major awards at the 2026 Oscars
• One Battle After Another dominates as the Best Picture favorite, with Sinners and Hamnet chasing
• Learn trends from past Academy Awards to predict the 2026 Oscar winners

The race for the 98th Academy Awards is heating up, and prediction markets have all the 2026 Oscars odds. Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another has emerged as the clear Best Picture favorite after dominating the festival circuit, while Timothée Chalamet and Jessie Buckley are favored to win Best Actor and Actress honors.

The Kalshi prediction market tracks real-time Oscars odds leading up to the March 15th, 2026, ceremony. Superstars like Leonardo DiCaprio will be on hand as he seeks his second Oscar, while director Paul Thomas Anderson looks to finally win an Academy Award after 11 previous nominations.

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2026 Oscars odds and implied probabilities from Kalshi prediction market as of March 9th, 2026. Bet on these markets with the Kalshi referral code to get a $10 Sign Up Bonus when you complete $10 in trades. Kalshi is currently unavailable in Illinois, Maryland, Montana, New Jersey, and Ohio.

2026 Oscars Odds – Best Picture

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Oscars Odds for Best Picture

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One Battle After Another

75%

Sinners

22%

Hamnet

3%

Marty Supreme

2%

Sentimental Value

1%

Wicked: For Good

1%

Bugonia

1%

It Was Just an Accident

1%

No Other Choice

1%

F1

1%

Predict

Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another has emerged as the clear frontrunner at 75% odds. The film stars Leonardo DiCaprio as a washed-up revolutionary and could finally deliver Anderson his first Oscar after 11 previous nominations.

Sinners is second at 23% odds, despite Ryan Coogler’s genre film facing typical Academy resistance to horror. Hamnet sits third after winning TIFF’s People’s Choice Award on September 14, 2025, a historically strong Best Picture predictor.

Past Best Picture Winners

2026 Oscars Odds – Best Actor

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Oscars Odds for Best Actor

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Michael B. Jordan

50%

Timothee Chalamet

44%

Leonardo DiCaprio

5%

Wagner Moura

4%

Ethan Hawke

3%

Jeremy Allen White

1%

Dwayne Johnson

1%

Daniel Day-Lewis

1%

Predict

Michael B. Jordan has overtaken Timothée Chalamet, and now holds a slight lead to win the Oscar’s Best Actor race at 50% (+100) for his lead role in Sinners. Chalamet currently has the second-best odds at 44% (+127) to win the Oscar for Best Actor following his role as table tennis player Marty Mauser in Marty Supreme. Leonardo DiCaprio has the third-best odds at 5% (+1900) following his role as a washed-up revolutionary in One Battle After Another. This would be DiCaprio’s second Oscar for Best Actor after previously winning the award for his role in The Revenant.

Past Best Actor Winners

2026 Oscars Odds – Best Actress

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Oscars Odds for Best Actress

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Jessie Buckley

94%

Emma Stone

2%

Rose Byrne

2%

Sydney Sweeney

1%

Kate Hudson

1%

Predict

Jessie Buckley dominates the Best Actress race at 94% (-1567) for her role starring as Agnes Shakespeare in Hamnet.

Rose Byrne trails at 2% (+4900) following her role in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. Emma Stone also holds 2% (+4900) odds after starring in Bugonia.

Past Best Actress Winners

2026 Oscars Odds – Best Director

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Oscars Odds for Best Director

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Paul Thomas Anderson

90%

Ryan Coogler

9%

Chloe Zhao

2%

Joachim Trier

1%

Josh Safdie

1%

Predict

Paul Thomas Anderson leads the Best Director race at 90% (-900) odds for One Battle After Another. After 11 previous nominations without a win, this could finally be his year.

After initially appearing as a true contender in the prediction markets, Joachim Trier has fallen to 1% for his role directing Sentimental Value, which won the Cannes Grand Prix on May 24. Ryan Coogler holds a 9% chance (+1011 odds) while Chloé Zhao has 2% (+4900) odds following strong TIFF showings.

Past Best Director Winners

2026 Oscars Odds – Best Supporting Actor

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Oscars Odds for Best Supporting Actor

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Sean Penn

70%

Stellan Skarsgard

21%

Delroy Lindo

10%

Jacob Elordi

2%

Benicio del Toro

2%

Predict

Sean Penn is the current favorite to win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor after his role in One Battle After Another at 70% (-233). Behind him in the prediction markets at 21% (+376) is Stellan Skarsgard, who featured in Sentimental Value, and Delroy Kindo at 8% (+1150), who featured in Sinners.

Past Best Supporting Actor Winners

2026 Oscars Odds – Best Supporting Actress

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Oscars Odds for Best Supporting Actress

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Amy Madigan

45%

Teyana Taylor

30%

Wunmi Mosaku

24%

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas

4%

Elle Fanning

2%

Predict

Prediction markets show Amy Madigan from Weapons with a 45% probability (+122 odds) as the favorite to win the 2026 Oscar for Best Supporting Actress. Behind her in the odds are Teyana Taylor at 30% (+233 odds) for her role in One Battle After Another, as well as Wunmi Mosaku at 24% (+317 odds) for her supporting role in Sinners.

Past Best Supporting Actress Winners

2026 Oscars Odds FAQ

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