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AAF Week 3 Odds & Picks: Apollos On A Mission, Laying 15 Points

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in AAF

Feb 22, 2019 · 6:39 AM PST

Week 3 of the Alliance of American Football league kicks off on Saturday, February 23. See the odds for all four games and our best bets.
  • Home teams continue to carry the day in the AAF, going 6-2 SU and ATS through two weeks
  • Orlando Apollos and Arizona Hotshots are the only teams to win on the road
  • Orlando has scored an AAF-best 77 points through in two games

The NFL, NCAA, USFL, and now the AAF. No matter the league, there’s just one thing coach Steve Spurrier does. He wins.

Spurrier guided the Tampa Bay Bandits to a pair of USFL playoff berths. In college football, he took the Duke Blue Devils to an ACC title and the Florida Gators to a national title. As an NFL player, he was part of three postseason appearances with the San Francisco 49ers.

As other AAF teams struggle to move the ball, Spurrier’s Orlando Apollos are over the moon when it comes to creating offense. Not only are they 2-0, the Apollos have put up 77 points in those two victories, outscoring the San Antonio Commanders 37-29 in Week 2 in what is the highest-scoring game in league history.

Let’s look at this week’s matchups, based on odds:

Arizona Hotshots vs Salt Lake Stallions

Teams Moneyline Spread Total
Arizona Hotshots -205 -4.5 (-115) O 44 (-115)
Salt Lake Stallions +155 +4.5 (-115) U 44 (-115)

*All odds taken 2/21

Kickoff: Sat, Feb 23 at 3pm EST

We have our first rematch of the AAF season, and that also means we have our first chance to check out some tendencies.

At Tempe in Week 1, the Hotshots QB John Wolford threw for 275 yards and four touchdowns. He broke open a tight 21-16 game with a pair of third-quarter TDs, en route to a 38-22 verdict over the Stallions.

Wolford is averaging nine yards per completion. Arizona rallied from 12-0 and 18-6 deficits to win 20-18 at Memphis last week.

The 0-2 Stallions have issues at quarterback. Starter Josh Woodrum was injured in the loss to the Hotshots and backup Austin Allen was 15-31 for 114 yards in a 12-9 Week 2 loss to Birmingham.

Salt Lake blew a 9-0 lead in that game.

Pick: Hotshots -205, -4.5, Under 44

Memphis Express vs Orlando Apollos

Teams Moneyline Spread Total
Memphis Express +450 +15 (-115) O 45 (-115)
Orlando Apollos -800 -15 (-115) U 45 (-115)

Kickoff: Sat, Feb 23 at 8pm EST

The 0-2 Express forced five turnovers in the loss to the Hotshots, but averaged just 3.5 yards per play on offense.

Memphis has scored a paltry 18 points in two games. On defense, the Express surrender seven yards per pass completion, second-worst in the AAF.

The Apollos are the league’s No. 1 passing offense. QB Garrett Gilbert has thrown for an AAF-best 620 yards.

Unbeaten Orlando (2-0) is averaging 38.5 points per game. WR Charles Johnson has caught 11 passes for 252 yards.

Pick: Apollos -800, -15, Over 45

Birmingham Iron vs Atlanta Legends

Teams Moneyline Spread Total
Birmingham Iron -265 -7 (-115) O 39 (-110)
Atlanta Legends +195 +7 (-115) U 39 (-120)

Kickoff: Sun, Feb 24 at 4pm EST

It was the defense that forged the Iron’s 12-9 Week 2 win over the Stallions when CB Jamar Summers forced a third-quarter fumble that set the stage for the go-ahead TD.

The 2-0 Iron have allowed a league-low nine points through two games and posted the only shutout in AAF history.

Iron QB Luis Perez has been hindered by receivers who’ve dropped eight passes and an offensive line that’s permitted 28 pressures.

It’s been a tough go for the Legends, who’ve been outscored 64-18 in two road losses. But one of those losses was to Orlando and the other came in a driving rainstorm.

Legends QB Matt Simms is the son of Super Bowl-winning New York Giants QB Phil Simms. He has completed 32 of his 53 pass attempts for 286 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions.

Pick: Legends +195, +7, Under 39

San Antonio Commanders vs San Diego Fleet

Teams Moneyline Spread Total
San Antonio Commanders +105 +2.5 (-115) O 43.5 (-115)
San Diego Fleet -140 -2.5 (-115) U 43.5 (-115)

Kickoff: Sun, Feb 24 at 8pm EST

Another Week 1 rematch. The Commanders took a 15-6 verdict from the Fleet at the Alamodome.

Both teams come into this tilt with identical 1-1 slates. It took the Fleet eight quarters to finally find the end zone and produce their first TD of the season.

Head coach Mike Martz has already utilized three different quarterbacks.

Fleet RB Ja’Quon Gardner rambled for 104 yards on the ground and two fourth-quarter TDs last week against Atlanta, as San Diego snapped a 9-9 fourth-quarter deadlock to win 24-12.

The Commanders play their first road game of the season, but might want to get used to packing. This is their first of four in a row away from San Antonio. Through two weeks, AAF road teams are 2-6 against the spread. Commanders QB Logan Woodside leads the AAF with six TD passes and the San Antonio defense has registered a league-high 11 sacks. But they blew a 17-point fourth-quarter lead in last week’s loss to Orlando.

Pick: Fleet -140, -2.5, Under 43.5

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