AAF Week 2 Odds & Picks: Keep Betting the Under
- The Alliance of American Football opened on four fronts last weekend.
- The new league’s debut week drew 2.9 million viewers to games on CBS.
- See the odds for all four Week 2 games.
The AAF is off to a solid start, if the TV numbers it drew on opening week are any indication. More people tuned into the league’s Week 1 games broadcast by CBS than to the NBA game on ABC.
Week 2️⃣ is here, #JoinTheAlliance this Saturday on TNT and @nflnetwork!
? | https://t.co/m6ssSzHbEC pic.twitter.com/7RqMcYTITx
— The Alliance (@TheAAF) February 13, 2019
True, the Alliance’s TV numbers of 2.9 million pale when compared to the 9.7 million drawn in opening week by the ill-fated XFL but that league was promoted extensively and had the engine of the WWE hype machine behind it.
AAF Week 2 Expectations
The AAF opened with much softer preseason hype, so it will be interesting to see how the league fares in Week 2. Another advantage is that the league can count on the full support of the NFL.
Each team has NFL affiliates, like minor-pro hockey and baseball clubs. The XFL sought to present itself as everything the NFL isn’t, and that message failed to resonate with the masses.
Chargers GM Tom Telesco believes AAF is 'a great idea' https://t.co/fKRY8xAGa0 pic.twitter.com/nkrUv5PsTE
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) February 13, 2019
While there’s still plenty to be resolved with this new football league, a few betting trends carried the day in Week 1 – home teams not only went 4-0 straight up, they were also 4-0 against the spread. Defenses are generally ahead of offenses in the learning curve, so it was no surprise that the under was 4-0 as well.
Let’s look at this week’s matchups, based on odds offered:
Salt Lake Stallions vs Birmingham Iron
| Teams | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Salt Lake Stallions | +240 | +7.5 (-115) | O 44 (-115) |
| Birmingham Iron | -300 | -7.5 (-115) | U 44 (-115) |
*All odds taken 2/14
Kickoff: Sat, Feb 16 at 2pm EST
The Stallions were outscored 38-22 by Arizona in a game many pegged as a potential championship game preview. Salt Lake struggled to move the ball, held to 152 yards passing and 88 yards on the ground.
The Hotshots, meanwhile, lit them up for 416 yards in total offense. Salt Lake QB Josh Woodrum left the game with a hamstring injury and his status for this week is doubtful.
This is awesome. Lo Locust (@CoachLoLoc) is a defensive line coach for the BHM Iron. She's one of three women coaching full-time in the @TheAAF.
Iron defense held Memphis to 202 yards, 0 points and forced 3 turnovers. #ForgeOn #AAF pic.twitter.com/fRJyYxj5T8
— Grace Remington (@GraceRemiWTSP) February 14, 2019
The Iron don’t suit up the explosive offense of the Hotshots, but in their 26-0 Week 1 shutout of Memphis, they displayed an iron will on defense, limiting the Express to 202 yards of offense.
Tight end Braeden Bowman (knee), who caught two balls for 32 yards last week, was placed on injured reserve. Wide receiver Quinton Patton, who gained 107 yards in receptions, injured his wrist but is expected to play.
Pick: Iron -300, -7, Under 44
Arizona Hotshots vs Memphis Express
| Teams | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Hotshots | -500 | -13 (-115) | O 46.5 (-115) |
| Memphis Express | +350 | +13 (-115) | U 46.5 (-115) |
Kickoff: Sat, Feb 16 at 8pm EST
Generally, the home team getting 13 points would be a natural play, but this one smells like a blowout.
While the Express were blanked in a 26-0 loss to Birmingham, the Hotshots ran roughshod over Salt Lake, putting up 38 points. Quarterback John Wolford passed for four touchdowns, two of them to Rashad Ross, who went for 103 yards in receptions.
One hand? ?
No problem for @RocketRoss_19. @aafhotshots | #JoinTheAlliance pic.twitter.com/EE3kwU0KlL— The Alliance (@TheAAF) February 12, 2019
Express QB Christian Hackenberg looked every bit as dismal in the AAF as he did as a New York Jet. He was 10-of-23 for 87 yards and an interception, but Memphis coach Mike Singletary indicated that Hackenberg was still his man under center.
The Express defense held former NFL RB Trent Richardson in check and recovered two fumbles.
Pick: Hotshots -500, -13, under 46.5
Orlando Apollos vs San Antonio Commanders
| Teams | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Apollos | -230 | -6 (-115) | O 44.5 (-115) |
| San Antonio Commanders | +180 | +6 (-115) | U 44.5 (-115) |
Kickoff: Sun, Feb 17 at 4pm EST
The big talk in Orlando this week was about who the Apollos failed to land. Coach Steve Spurrier was spurned by Tim Tebow, his Heisman Trophy-winning QB at Florida, who wants to try and make MLB with the New York Mets.
Why Steve Spurrier and AAF couldn't lure Tim Tebow off Mets https://t.co/S53Ekac3Ru pic.twitter.com/ctUX1YLwNb
— New York Post (@nypost) February 12, 2019
In Orlando’s 40-6 win over Atlanta, LB Terence Garvin had 11 tackles and two INTs, including a pick-six. Apollo QB Gale Gilbert passed for two TDs and caught a TD pass on a trick play.
THE ORLANDO SPECIAL! pic.twitter.com/BKztnVXWO1
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) February 10, 2019
If there’s a home-field advantage in the AAF, it could be at the Alamodome, where 27,857 took in the Commanders’ season-opening 15-6 win over San Diego, booing the visiting Fleet vociferously from the moment they came out of the tunnel.
The San Antonio defense was dominant, collecting six sacks and picking off three passes.
Pick: Commanders +180, +6, under 44.5
Atlanta Legends vs San Diego Fleet
| Teams | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Legends | +270 | +9.5 (-110) | O 43.5 (-115) |
| San Diego Fleet | -360 | -9.5 (-110) | U 43.5 (-115) |
Kickoff: Sat, Feb 17 at 8pm EST
Both of these teams were held to six points in season-opening losses, although the Fleet checked San Antonio on 15 points, while the Legends were lit up for 40 by Orlando.
Atlanta did record the first points in AAF history, but there hasn’t been much legendary about the Legends, who lost both head coach Brad Childress and offensive coordinator Michael Vick before a down was played.
?#AAF: the first points ever scored in AAF history belong to Atlanta Legends @YounghoeKoo !
(Via: @TheAAF)pic.twitter.com/2ovIXqzybN— New Horizons SB (@NewHorizons_SB) February 10, 2019
Atlanta mustered just 224 yards of offense, went 4-of-13 on third down, and QB Matt Simms was intercepted twice.
San Diego’s defense was impressive against the Commanders, allowing just one TD, that after a Fleet turnover, while generating two sacks and two interceptions.
What. A. Hit. ?@aafcommanders | #SDvsSA pic.twitter.com/cZIyt91mTz
— The Alliance (@TheAAF) February 10, 2019
Fleet quarterback Mike Bercovici was sacked six times and picked off twice. Backup Philip Nelson, expected to start this week, was picked off once. TE Gavin Escobar caught four passes for 66 yards.
Pick: Fleet -360, -9.5, under 43.5
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
