Champions League Odds: 5th Fixture Picks

The fifth fixture of the UEFA Champions League Group Stage will take place on November 22 and 23. It’s the penultimate fixture of the Group Stage and the rankings in each group are starting to solidify. But there’s still a lot up for grabs and many teams are either jockeying for the top spot in their quartet or looking to nab their group’s second knockout round berth.

Here’s a look at the big games coming up and my take on where the value lies. 

CSKA Moscow (+250) vs. Bayer Leverkusen (+110), Draw (+240)

The last time Bayer Leverkusen and CSKA Moscow met, the result was a 2-2 draw.  Bayer is now in second place and could either move to the top of the group or fall to third depending on the outcome of this game. A win against CSKA will likely guarantee their advancement to the knockout stages, possibly even in first place.

CSKA are at the bottom of the group and don’t have much to play for. Technically, they are still able to advance but their chances are very slim even if they win. They have not been in good form throughout the competition and I don’t expect them to change that now, with basically nothing on the line. 

Pick: Bayer Leverkusen (+110)

Arsenal (+125) vs. Paris St Germain (+210), Draw (+240)

Arsenal and Paris St Germain are tied on points at the top of their group. Whatever the result of their next match, both teams will advance to the Knockout Stage. But the outcome of this game will probably decide who advances in first place.

The last time the two teams faced off, they played to a 1-1 draw in France. If they happen to draw again, the teams will remain tied on points with Arsenal ahead on goal difference. PSG will then have to make up a three-goal deficit in their next game in order to come out on top. That’s not likely to happen, so PSG should come out the more motivated side, knowing that they (probably) need the full three in order to win the group.

But with the next match coming in London, I see the French making the trek home unsatisfied.  

Pick: Draw (+240)

Celtic (+900) vs Barcelona (-350), Draw (+450)

When Barcelona and Celtic faced off for the first time in the Group Stage, Barcelona dismantled their Scottish foe, 7-0. They opened the scoring in the 2nd minute and didn’t stop until the 87th. It was a bloodbath.

Now, Barcelona will be looking to pick off Celtic one more time to ensure that they make it out of the Group Stage in first place, ahead of Manchester City. Celtic, on the other hand, have very little to play for. Even if they manage to win, it is almost impossible for them to advance from the Group Stage.

Pick: Barcelona (-350)

Photo credit: “Neymar” by Alex Fau, CC BY-SA 2.0 [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0], via Flickr.