Closing Odds, Score Predictions & Betting Splits for Kentucky vs Illinois

• The Kentucky vs Illinois odds are set to close the the worse-seeded Illini as betting favorites
• Illinois rates as the slightly better team at KenPom and Haslametrics
• Below, see the closing Illinois vs Kentucky odds, score predictions, and final betting splits

The #6 Illinois Fighting Illini (22-12, ATS) face the #3 Kentucky Wildcats (23-11, ATS) in the second round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament on Sunday evening at 5:15 pm ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, WI. Though the Wildcats are the better seed, the Illini opened as favorites on Friday night and the line has only grown as tip-off approaches.

Closing Illinois vs Kentucky Odds

After opening as 1.5-point favorites, the Illini are now laying 2.5 points in the Illinois vs Kentucky spread. On the moneyline, Illinois is a -140 favorite with Kentucky coming back as +115 underdog in Sunday’s college basketball odds. The game total is sitting at a relatively high 167.5 with a little extra juice on the under. The total has been plummeting over the last 36 hours after opening at 170.5.

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Kentucky breezed past #14 Troy, 76-57, getting a game-high 20 points from leading scorer Otega Oweh (16.4 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.8 APG) and a monster 13-rebound night from center Amari Williams (10.9 PPG, 8.6 RPG). Returning from a shoulder injury, point guard Lamont Butler (11.0 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 4.3 APG) was limited to zero points, two rebounds, and three assists in 25 minutes. He was 0-of-5 from the floor.

The Illini weren’t seriously challenged in the first round, either, cruising past #11 Xavier 76-63. Illinois never trailed after the five-minute mark of the first half and held a double-digit lead for the entire final 13 minutes. Future lottery pick Kasparas Jakucionis (15.0 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 4.8 APG) finished one rebound short of a triple-double with 16 points, 10 assists, and nine boards, while fellow standout freshman Will Riley (12.8 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 2.3 APG) had a team-high 22 points.

Two of the three main analytics sites project a narrow Illinois victory in Milwaukee on Sunday evening.

Illinois vs Kentucky Score Predictions

KenPom and Haslametrics both project a one-point Illinois victory, though with slightly different totals (169 at KenPom, 167 at Haslam). Torvik, on the other hand, predicts a one-point Kentucky victory with a total of 171. It should be noted, of course, that Kentucky’s rating includes 24 games with second-leading scorer Jaxson Robinson (13.0 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 1.7 APG).

Illinois’ overall rating ranges from 15th at Haslam to #18 at Torvik. Kentucky’s ranges from 17th at both KenPom and Torvik to 21st at Haslam.

Kentucky vs Illinois Betting Splits

Sunday’s March Madness betting splits show the public actually siding the UK as of two hours before tip-off, even though the line has moved in the other direction (a common sign of sharp money coming in on the other side, in this case, Illinois).

The Wildcats are currently getting 55% of moneyline handle on 57% of moneyline tickets. They’re also receiving 54% of ATS handle on 56% of ATS wagers.

With respect to the game total, the public is now slightly leaning to the over: 56% of O/U money is on over 167.5 along with 58% of the game-total bets.