Purdue vs Michigan State Odds, Player Props & Predictions for Feb. 18

• Purdue visits Michigan State on Tuesday with second-place in the Big Ten on the line
• The Boilermakers have lost back-to-back games for just the second time this season
• See the Purdue vs Michigan State odds, player props, and predictions on Feb. 18

A week ago, the #13 Purdue Boilermakers (19-7, 11-4 Big Ten, 5-4 away, 15-11 ATS) and #14 Michigan State Spartans (20-5, 11-3 Big Ten, 12-1 home, 15-9-1 ATS) were battling for first-place in the Big Ten. But recent dips from both sides mean that Tuesday’s game in East Lansing will be for sole possession of second-place behind Michigan (12-2 Big Ten). The Spartans head into Tuesday night as slight home favorites. Tip-off is set for 7:00 pm ET at the Breslin Center.

Purdue vs Michigan State Odds

The Purdue vs Michigan State spread currently lists the Spartans as 3.5-point home chalk and -165 favorites on the moneyline, which equates to a 62.26% implied win probability. The Boilermakers come back as +140 road underdogs (41.67% implied win probability) in Tuesday’s college basketball odds. The total is at 148.0 with -110 odds both ways.

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Purdue dropped a back-and-forth 75-73 decision at Michigan last Tuesday, eking out the ATS cover as 2.5-point road underdogs thanks to a last-second three. They were less competitive on Saturday, falling 94-84 at home to Wisconsin as six-point home favorites. Junior forward Trey Kaufman-Renn had a career-high 30 points in a losing effort, going 12-of-16 from the field while also dishing out five assists and grabbing four rebounds.

Purdue’s interior defense was, once again, a massive hole for Matt Painter’s team. The Badgers shot an absurd 20-of-22 (90.1%) from inside the arc, and the Boilermakers now sit 316th out of 364 DI teams in two-point defense (54.9%). No one on the entire team registered a block over 40 minutes.

The Spartans rebounded from their first loss this season at the Breslin Center (a 71-67 to Indiana on Feb. 11) with arguably their best performance of the season last time out, trouncing Illinois 79-65 at Champaign. Junior forward Jaxon Kohler had a game-high 23 points in the win.

Purdue currently sits at +3300 in the March Madness championship odds, slightly ahead of MSU at +4500. Both teams are among the top-15 favorites to win the 2025 national championship.

PUR vs MSU Player Props

Purdue’s dynamic duo, Trey Kaufman-Renn (19.4 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 2.5 APG) and Braden Smith (16.0 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 8.8 APG, 2.4 SGP), have the highest point totals of the night at 19.5 and 17.5, respectively. Smith also has the highest assist total at 7.5. Smith’s 8.8 APG mark is second in the nation to Gonzaga’s Ryan Nembhard (10.0 APG).

MSU forward Jaxon Kohler (8.2 PPG, 7.8 RPG) has the highest rebound total at 6.5 O/U.

The Spartans have a cogent argument for most-balanced team in the nation. Head coach Tom Izzo has ten players averaging at least 16.2 minutes per game and scoring between 5.0 and 13.2 PPG, led by senior guard Jaden Akins (13.2 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 1.5 APG). Though the 6’4 guard has seen his three-point percentage fall from 36.4% last year to just 29.0% so far this season.

Purdue vs Michigan State Prediction & Picks

As touched on above, Purdue’s interior defense has been absolutely horrendous all season, and it doesn’t show signs of changing. Trey Kaufman-Renn is a beast at the offensive end but is proving equally ineffective at the other end of the floor.

Unfortunately for the Boilermakers, the Spartans live and die by the two. MSU shoots just 32.3% of its field-goal attempts from beyond the arc, which puts them 334th in Division I, and they hit at 55.0% from two (a solid 52nd in the country). No one on the Purdue side seems to have any preternatural defensive instincts around their own hoop. The Boilermakers’ 5.6% block percentage is 344th in DI.

This is a bad matchup for Purdue in an extremely difficult environment. Add in the fact that Matt Painter’s team enters on a skid, and I will ride with the MSU moneyline. The best price on a Spartan victory tonight is -156 at FanDuel.

PUR vs MSU pick: Michigan State moneyline (-156) at FanDuel

Sascha Paruk’s 2024-25 NCAAM betting record: 22-15 (5.13 units)