Alabama vs Mississippi State Props: Keelon Russell & Kamario Taylor Picks

• Alabama vs Mississippi State player props center on two high-volume quarterbacks
• Recent game logs help assess the quarterback yardage lines
• My picks include a receiving prop and a passing-touchdown angle

Alabama visits Mississippi State at Davis Wade Stadium on Saturday, October 3 for a noon ET kickoff. Both offenses have been moving the ball well enough that the player market is more interesting to me than the side or the total.

Keelon Russell is averaging 282.3 passing yards a game for Alabama. Kamario Taylor sits at 298.0 for Mississippi State, and Anthony Evans III has 408 receiving yards on 38 targets as the Bulldogs’ primary option.

I am working from recent game splits and season production rather than any single box score. Here are the four college football player props I have circled.

Alabama vs Mississippi State Player Props

Alternate player props from BetMGM as of October 3. American odds are rounded conversions of the displayed decimal prices. The BetMGM promo code page has the current offer details.

Keelon Russell Passing Yards

• Keelon Russell 300+ passing yards (+130 at BetMGM)

Keelon Russell has completed 78 of 110 passes for 1,129 yards through four games, an average of 282.3. The 300-yard milestone is above that average, but he has reached it in each of the last two weeks.

Mississippi State is allowing 249.0 passing yards per game, so the throws should be available. Russell needed only 30 attempts for 320 yards against Florida State and 27 for 365 against South Carolina, giving me two recent examples of production without unusually heavy volume.

Russell has reached 300 yards in two of four games, so the season average alone is not enough to make this pick. I am backing his recent form while recognizing that the 188-yard Kentucky game shows how far short he can finish on a quieter afternoon.

Kamario Taylor Passing Yards and Touchdowns

• Kamario Taylor 250+ passing yards (-143 at BetMGM)
• Kamario Taylor 2+ passing touchdowns (-133 at BetMGM)

Kamario Taylor has completed 83 of 120 passes for 1,192 yards, or 298.0 a game. The yardage line sits nearly 50 yards below that average, and his four-game log includes a 354 and a 360.

Taylor has thrown at least three passing touchdowns in all four games, which makes two or more a threshold I am comfortable backing at approximately -133. To be clear, this is a passing touchdown market and not anytime scorer, so his own carries into the end zone would not count.

Alabama allows 221.5 passing yards per game at 7.84 yards per attempt, the toughest defensive number in this article. Mississippi State’s 533.2 total yards per game and 50.0% third-down rate are why I still expect the volume to show up.

Anthony Evans III Receiving Yards

• Anthony Evans III 75+ receiving yards (-149 at BetMGM)

Anthony Evans III has 28 catches on 38 targets for 408 yards. He has cleared this line in three of four games, with totals of 118, 121 and 114, and 9.5 targets a game gives him several routes to it.

The 55-yard game is the honest counterpoint. A featured receiver can have a quiet afternoon when the coverage tilts his way, and that outcome is live against an Alabama secondary holding opponents to 221.5 yards a game.

I am leaning on target share rather than needing a specific final score. Evans does not have to break a long one either. He averages about 14.6 yards per catch; six receptions at that rate would take him past this line.

These game logs help explain my three yardage picks. Russell is trending up over the last three weeks, Taylor has two 350-plus games bracketing two quieter ones, and Evans has three results comfortably clear of his number.

Evans’ only game below 75 yards came against South Carolina on September 19, when Taylor finished just above his current passing line with 251 yards. Alabama drew that same defense a week later and Russell put up his season high of 365, which is a useful reminder that a shared opponent tells you less than it seems. Comparing the wider college football odds is still worth a minute before you place anything.