Ball State vs Buffalo Odds, Spread & Prediction (Tuesday, Nov. 12)
By Darren Cooper in College Football
Published:
- Ball State (3-6) makes its first trip to Buffalo (5-4) and UB Stadium since 2016 in a Tuesday Night MAC contest.
- The Bulls feature the nation’s leading tackle on defense in linebacker Shaun Dolac.
- Check out our full preview and prediction, including insights on the betting line and best pick for Tuesday Night college football.
Clear skies and temperatures in the upper 30s will greet both Buffalo (5-4, 5-4 ATS) and Ball State (3-6, 6-3 ATS) Tuesday when they square off Tuesday for a 7 p.m. ET kickoff.
The Bulls are 3-2 in the MAC, a win away from becoming bowl-eligible for just the eighth time in program history. There are four teams that are 4-1 in the MAC. Ball State is 2-3 in the MAC. The Cardinals started the season 1-4, but have won two of their last four games.
We’ve got everything you need to know for this midweek MACtion, including our prediction and game analysis.
Ball State vs Buffalo odds
| Teams | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ball State | +5.0 (-110) | +162 | O 53.5 (-110) |
| Buffalo | -5.0 (1110) | -196 | U 53.5 (-110) |
Odds as of 8 pm. ET November 11 at Caesars Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the top Caesars Sportsbook promos before making a bet on any Week 11 CFB matchup.
When you factor in the sportsbooks, Ball State is one of the most unique FBS teams this season. The Cardinals are 6-3 against the spread, and 7-1-1 over/under. The Cardinals have been underdogs in their last three games, and won all three against the spread.
Buffalo is 5-3-1 over/under, and their last five games have hit the over. In fact, its last three games haven’t just gone over; they’ve gone way over. The Bulls’ last three have gone over the posted total by 23, 17 and 40 points.
The Bulls are 4.5-point favorites at most sportsbooks, but you can get five points at Caesars. The total at DraftKings is 54, but 53.5 most everywhere else. The top moneyline bet on Ball State is at Caesars at +162, and for Buffalo, it’s FanDuel at -188.
If you’re a Buffalo sports fan, PLEASE learn about @UBFootball linebacker Shaun Dolac!
▪️Was a star at West Seneca East
▪️Originally a walk-on at UB
▪️2nd in NCAA with 147 tackles in 2022
▪️13.5 TFL in 22’ season
▪️11 tackles, 2 TFL, INT in Lafayette winpic.twitter.com/1m1cTU2R8J— Mike Bundt (@Mike_Bundt) August 30, 2024
The Tackling Machine
Buffalo has the leading tackler in the country in senior linebacker Shaun Dolac. That almost seems hard to believe, but Dolac has 120 tackles this season. And the story gets better. He was a walk-on at Buffalo after playing at nearby East Seneca High School.
And wait, it gets even better: his fellow linebacker, Red Murdock (yes, make the A-Team jokes) is third in the country with 107 tackles. Nothing gets by these two.
Offensively, Buffalo is fair. Quarterback C.J. Ogbonna has played well, with 10 TDs and two picks. He’s a game-manager type. Bulls running back Al-Jay Henderson has averaged 6.9 yards per carry in the Bulls’ last four games.
Week 9 Performance
TE Tanner Koziol – Ball State
• 9 rec 79 yards 2 TDs pic.twitter.com/gAsNab7rag
— NCAAF Nation (@NCAAFNation247) October 26, 2024
Hey, I Know You
Ball State coach Mike Neu is in his ninth year at the helm with the Cardinals. He replaced Pete Lembo in 2016. Lembo is now the coach at Buffalo.
The Cardinals are coming off a 27-21 loss to MAC favorite Miami (Ohio). Freshman quarterback Kadin Semonza has thrown for 2,029 yards, which is second most in the conference, and his top target is tight end Tanner Koziol, who averages eight catches a game. He has 137 catches in his career.
Defensively, though, the Cardinals have been poor. They rank second in the MAC, allowing almost 39 points a game, and are dead last in the league against the pass.
Ball State vs Buffalo Prediction
- Buffalo -4.5 at DraftKings
- Over 53.5 at DraftKings
The Bulls still have a lot to play for, with a shot at making a bowl game this season with a win. Ball State would need to win out, and it doesn’t look likely for them.
The issue is the Cardinals’ defense has really struggled this season, while the Bulls’ defense is, well, average, but average still beats bad.
Traditionally, Ball State has dominated this series and leads it 11-2, but this sets up as one team with some momentum playing at home, with another team that hasn’t been able to find a way to win. We like the Bulls at home to cover the spread, and we can’t ignore all the signs pointing to the over.
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Darren has been covering sports since 1998 and the sports betting industry since PASPA made it official. His goal is to make the activity fun and exciting with insights and perspective. Enjoy.
