Final Ohio State vs Notre Dame Prediction & Updated Odds – CFP National Championship

• Ohio State is an 8.5-point favorite over Notre Dame in the CFP National Championship
• The Buckeyes are 5-1 straight up and against the spread versus ranked teams this season
• Check out the final Ohio State vs Notre Dame prediction, and updated odds below

We are just hours away from the culmination of the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff. #8 Ohio State faces #7 Notre Dame in the National Championship Game, looking to cap off an unbelievable playoff run. The Buckeyes have already dismissed #9 Tennessee, #5 Texas and #1 Oregon, and online sportsbooks expect them to hoist the trophy tonight per the updated College Football odds.

Ohio State vs Notre Dame Odds

Ohio State is now favored by 8.5 points, in a contest with a total of 45.5. The spread opened at Buckeyes -9.5, and has been fluctuating between -8 and -8.5 over the last few days. At the current number, the action is nearly split down the middle, with OSU drawing slightly more tickets, but Notre Dame garnering a bit more money.

Total-wise, the over/under is down a point from its opener per the College Football public betting trends. The bulk of the wagers (67%) and money (74%) are coming in on the under, suggesting this number may come down further prior to kickoff.

The CFP National Championship gets underway at 7:30 pm ET from the Mercedes-Benz Stadium, in Atlanta, GA, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Odds as of January 20th at 1:00 pm ET. Be sure to check out the best sportsbook promotions before placing a bet on the CFP National Championship.

Why Sportsbooks Are So Bullish on Ohio State

Early Notre Dame money moved the spread down, but it never crossed a key number. 9 and 9.5 points are considered “dead” numbers, so it would have raised eyebrows had this line fallen below 8. Online sportsbooks would have been inundated with Buckeyes money if that had happened, but now they can strike a balance between both sides.

Ohio State and Notre Dame are both FANTASTIC teams..

Monday night is gonna be AWESOME #PMSLive pic.twitter.com/1do5IPnKnQ

— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) January 17, 2025

Bettors who love the Irish will see value on the +8.5, while OSU backers will most likely continue to back their squad heavily unless the spread reaches double-digits. The Buckeyes are 5-1 straight up and against the spread versus ranked teams this season, including 3-0 ATS as they breezed through the College Football Playoff Bracket.

It’s worth noting however, that an extra couple points shouldn’t completely deter Ohio State bettors. Over the last 26 National Championship games, 12 of the winners beat the spread by at least 6 points. With that in mind, playing an alt line of OSU -13.5, at +148 odds, is a creative way to bet this contest.

Final Ohio State vs Notre Dame Prediction

• Ohio State Buckeyes -8.5 (-110) 

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This matchup is a nightmare for the Irish. Notre Dame has thrived on its pass defense and turnovers this season, while running the ball on offense. These are all areas that Ohio State can and should dominate.

Let’s start with when the Irish have the ball. Notre Dame wants to pound the rock with Jeremiyah Love and dual-threat QB Riley Leonard. Good luck against this Buckeyes front. OSU ranks third nationally against the run, allowing fewer than 3.0 yards per carry. They have arguably the most dominant front in the nation, and should be able to cave in a shorthanded Irish offensive line.

If Notre Dame falls behind and has to rely on the pass, that’s when things could get ugly. OSU is first in pass rush productivity, second in opponent passing success rate, and fourth in explosive plays allowed.

Over the last two months, they’ve faced the first, ninth and 34th-best passing attacks per success rate, and have stymied them all. They held those programs to an average of 216 passing yards per game, with three turnovers, and just four TD’s allowed. The Buckeyes are also incredibly stingy in the red zone, leading the nation in TDs surrendered inside the 20.

On the other side of the ball, no one has slowed down the Buckeyes in the CFP. The Irish are winless in games they’ve lost the turnover battle in this season, and they struggle against the run. They rank 75th in run defense, and coughed up over 200 rushing yards in the semifinal to Penn State.

TREVEYON HENDERSON MAKES IT 21-0 OHIO STATE IN THE FIRST QUARTER 😳

THE BUCKEYES' OFFENSE IS ROLLING IN COLUMBUS 🔥 pic.twitter.com/7Jbpov9dL1

— ESPN (@espn) December 22, 2024

OSU’s TreVeyon Henderson has 29 explosive runs on only 132 carries this season, and has scored five times already in the playoff. Another area of strength for Notre Dame is their pass rush, but Will Howard has shredded teams versus the blitz.

Howard is averaging over 300 yards per start in the playoff, with 6 TD. He’s completing 80% of his throws against the blitz, and has helped the Buckeyes convert 77% of their red zone trips into touchdowns. Future NFL star Jeremiah Smith is the best receiver the Irish have seen all season, while OSU is full of complimentary pass-catching options on the off chance Smith is limited.

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