Miami vs Virginia Odds, Spread and Predictions
By Chris Amberley in College Football
Published:
- Miami is a 4-point home favorite over Virginia on Thursday (September 30th, 7:30 pm ET)
- The Cavaliers have allowed an ACC-high 423 yards per game to opposing offenses
- Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction
Week 5 on the college football calendar kicks off Thursday (September 30th) in Miami, as the Hurricanes host the Virginia Cavaliers.
Miami (2-2, 0-0 ACC) is off to a disappointing start after entering the season ranked 14th in the AP-Top 25, while Virginia (2-2, 0-2 ACC) has been blown out in back-to-back conference games.
The Hurricanes opened up as a 4-point favorite, in a game that features a total of 62. The early betting action favors Miami, as 59% of the ATS wagers are backing the Hurricanes.
Virginia vs Miami Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Cavaliers | +160 | +4 (-110) | O 62 (-110) |
| Miami Hurricanes | -190 | -4 (-110) | U 62 (-110) |
Odds as of Sept. 27th at DraftKings.
Kick-off is set for 7:30 pm ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. ESPN will have the broadcast coverage, while 75 degree night time temperatures are in the forecast.
QB Questions for the Canes
A big reason for the Hurricanes’ lofty preseason ranking was the assumption that D’eriq King was going to give them stability and upside at the quarterback position. King, a preseason Heisman Trophy candidate, did neither of those things through the first three weeks, and was forced to sit out last week with a shoulder injury.
He’s yet to be cleared for Thursday’s contest, and it seems doubtful he’ll be the starter at this point. All Manny Diaz would say early in the week is that King is still limited in motion and movements.
Manny Diaz said QB D'Eriq King is improving and feeling better every day. Diaz said King was "able to move around a little bit today."
— Manny Navarro (@Manny_Navarro) September 27, 2021
Some are speculating that Miami should make a change at the position regardless of King’s status. That feeling is especially true after the way his two back-ups played in Week 4.
Freshman Tyler Van Dyke completed 10-of-11 passes for 270 yards and three touchdowns in a 69-0 win over Central Connecticut, while Jake Garcia was 11-for-14 for 147 yards and two scores in mop-up duty.
Granted, those performances came against an FCS program, but it was the first time the Hurricanes eclipsed 25 points all season.
Highest-graded offensive true freshmen in Week 4:
💥 Brock Bowers, Georgia TE – 90.9
💥 Tyler Van Dyke, Miami QB – 87.9
💥 Xavier Restrepo, Miaim WR – 87.0
💥 Josh McCray, Illinois RB – 86.1 pic.twitter.com/xeosEiklfO— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 27, 2021
In two games versus power five opponents (Alabama and Michigan State), Miami has been outscored by 52 points. They rank 11th in the ACC in scoring defense, and ninth in total yards allowed.
Cavaliers Crushed In Consecutive Weeks
Virginia meanwhile, beat up on William & Mary and Illinois in their first two contests, but have been severely outmatched since conference play started.
They’ve dropped both of their conference outings so far, 59-39 to #21 North Carolina, and 37-17 to Wake Forest last week.
No. 21 North Carolina could not be stopped on offense today. 😤 pic.twitter.com/5qJFq1IaeC
— theScore (@theScore) September 19, 2021
They failed to force a punt versus UNC, and allowed the Demon Deacons to score on their first seven possessions last week, before finally forcing a punt midway through the fourth quarter.
The Cavaliers rank 12th in the ACC in scoring defense, and no team in the conference allows more yards per game.
UVA QB Brennan Armstrong has been TEARING through College Football
💥 93.9 overall grade (1st)
💥 13 big-time throws (1st)
💥 473 deep passing yards (1st) pic.twitter.com/0vBoyBvxH6— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 23, 2021
Offensively they live and die with Brennan Armstrong’s arm. The junior QB ranks second in the nation in passing yards with 1,705, and has cleared 400 yards in three straight weeks. Last time out versus Wake Forest, he racked up 407 yards and two scores, giving him 13 passing touchdowns through four games.
Virginia vs Miami Pick
Offense will be plentiful in this matchup, given the lack of strength of both these defenses. Miami grades out as the 109th ranked defense per Pro Football Focus, while Virginia checks in at number 120.
Offensively, the Cavaliers grade out 13th, while the Hurricanes rank 62nd. No one has been able to slow down the Virginia passing game, and their success won’t end on Thursday.
Brennan Armstrong is really good. pic.twitter.com/j3SLbs539s
— Bet The Pigskin (@betthepigskin) September 24, 2021
Even without King, Miami should be able to move the ball effortlessly in this spot, making over 62 the clear target.
- Pick: Over 62 (-110)
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
