Mississippi State vs Texas Prediction, Over/Under & Best Bets (Oct. 31)

• Texas returns home to host Mississippi State on Halloween night in Austin
• Mississippi State will be without starting quarterback Kamario Taylor
• Read below for my Mississippi State vs Texas prediction, over/under pick and best bets

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The Texas Longhorns (5-2) host the Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-3) at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium on Halloween. Texas needs a response after losing two of its last three games. The Longhorns will look to lean on a defense allowing just 19.1 points per game on the season to stall the visitors.

Mississippi State limps into Austin carrying a three-game losing streak. The offense has stalled over this rough patch, averaging just 12.7 points per contest while allowing 36.7 points per game to its opponents.

To make matters worse, Mississippi State announced on Oct. 27 that starting quarterback Kamario Taylor will miss the rest of the season with a foot injury requiring surgery. This Halloween night clash kicks off Saturday, Oct. 31 at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Mississippi State vs Texas Prediction

Mississippi State vs Texas prediction: Texas covers -20.5 and the game stays Under 49.5.

Mississippi State vs Texas Best Bet #1: Texas -20.5

My Mississippi State vs Texas prediction is Texas -20.5. I expect the home team to control the field position battle and pull away in the second half. Texas has scored on 92.9% of its red-zone trips this season with a 64.3% touchdown rate. Mississippi State sits at 83.3% and 62.5% in those same categories.

Arch Manning has completed 124 of 196 passes for 1,507 yards with 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions. The interceptions are worth watching, but the Texas offense still averages 30.7 points per game.

Without their starting quarterback, the Bulldogs face a steep climb to keep pace. Mississippi State converts 42.7% of its third downs, but Texas holds opponents to a 33% conversion rate. If that trend holds, Texas should own the better field position for most of the night.

The college football odds make Texas a substantial favorite, but the spread asks its offense to create separation against an SEC opponent.

Mississippi State vs Texas Over/Under

Mississippi State vs Texas Best Bet #2: Under 49.5

My Mississippi State vs Texas over/under pick is Under 49.5. Mississippi State has generated just 315 total yards per game over its last three outings. Now it faces a Texas defense allowing only 178.1 passing yards per game on the season.

Expect a run-heavy approach from the visitors as they try to shorten the game and protect a new quarterback. Handing the ball to Fluff Bothwell, who has 514 rushing yards, should help drain the clock. That script limits total possessions and keeps the scoring volume down.

The Texas offense has cooled off during its recent three-game stretch, averaging 27.3 points per game. A methodical Texas attack paired with a struggling Mississippi State offense supports the Under.

Polymarket prices the Over at 54¢ and the Under at 48¢, so the market leans slightly toward points. I think the recent form of both offenses points the other way.

Compare the prediction market apps and see the Polymarket sign-up bonus before kickoff.

Mississippi State vs Texas Best Bets

Both of my best bets are priced near even. Polymarket’s 51¢ Buy price on Texas -20.5 implies roughly a 51% probability, and each contract settles at $1 if the pick is correct. That means the market views this cover as close to a coin flip, not a strong lean either way. The Under at 48¢ implies roughly 48%, so the key takeaway is that both picks only need to hit slightly more often than the market expects to carry value.

If you would rather bet these at a sportsbook, compare the numbers across the best College Football betting apps.

Polymarket prices as of Oct. 30.

Mississippi State Quarterback Change & Matchup Stats

Mississippi State confirmed that Kamario Taylor is out for the remainder of the season with a foot injury requiring surgery. Billy Puckett and AJ Swann are the options to take over passing duties.

Taylor threw 17 touchdown passes against four interceptions, so his absence removes most of Mississippi State’s passing production. Puckett has one touchdown and two interceptions on limited attempts, and he faces a brutal test against a Texas secondary allowing just 178.1 passing yards per game.

The season scoring numbers are nearly even, but the gap shows on defense, where Texas allows 8.6 fewer points per game. Mississippi State’s 30.0 points per game also looks very different from the 12.7 it has averaged over its last three games, which is the trend I trust more heading into Saturday.