Montana State vs Idaho Prediction, Odds & Friday FCS Picks (Oct. 2)
By Ryan Potts in College Football
Published:
- Unbeaten Montana State visits Idaho in a Friday night Big Sky clash
- Key Bobcats injuries add a wrinkle to the late-night matchup
- Get my Montana State vs Idaho prediction, odds and how-to-watch details
Montana State and Idaho meet Friday night in a Big Sky game with very different stakes for the two programs. The Bobcats are unbeaten and already 2-0 in conference play, while the Vandals are still searching for their first win of the season after opening 0-4.
Montana State enters the matchup after beating Northern Arizona 28-14 last week. Idaho returns home to the Kibbie Dome, where the enclosed setting can make this a more difficult road assignment than the records alone suggest. The Bobcats remain the clear favorite, but their injury report is important when assessing how confidently they can control the game.
How to Watch Montana State vs Idaho
- Matchup: Montana State Bobcats at Idaho Vandals
- Date: Friday, Oct. 2, 2026
- Kickoff: 10:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- Venue: P1FCU Kibbie Dome, Moscow, Idaho
- Records: Montana State 5-0 (2-0 Big Sky); Idaho 0-4 (0-1 Big Sky)
Montana State vs. Idaho Injury Report
Montana State will be without starting quarterback Justin Lamson, leading receiver Taco Dowler and leading rusher Adam Jones for this game. Those absences should be part of the handicap, particularly because they could affect the Bobcats’ offensive options and overall depth. That makes it difficult to simply carry forward broad assumptions about Montana State’s offensive consistency from earlier in the season.
The injuries do not erase the difference in the teams’ records, and Montana State still has the stronger résumé entering Friday. However, the missing players create additional uncertainty for a road favorite and give Idaho another reason to stay competitive inside the Kibbie Dome. The Bobcats will need clean execution and dependable production from the available personnel rather than relying on the expectation that their offense will operate exactly as it has at full strength.
Montana State vs. Idaho Odds
The latest game lines price Montana State as a substantial road favorite:
Odds from bet365 as of October 2 at 5:00 PM ET.
Montana State’s -550 moneyline price implies a significant expected advantage, but it offers limited traditional betting value at that number. The spread is also substantial, especially with three important Bobcats unavailable. My selection is limited to the outright winner rather than a recommendation on the spread or total.
Montana State has been as large as 17.5-point favorites, but bet365 is offering a much more modest spread.
Montana State vs. Idaho Prediction
- My pick: Montana State to win (87¢ Yes at Kalshi)
I am backing Montana State to win outright. The Bobcats are unbeaten, have already collected two conference wins and just defeated Northern Arizona 28-14. Idaho’s 0-4 start makes the Vandals difficult to support as the winner, even with home-field advantage and Montana State’s injury concerns.
For bettors comparing prediction market apps, Montana State shares were listed at 87 cents for “Yes” on Oct. 1. A share purchased for 87 cents can pay $1 if the Bobcats win, producing a gross 13-cent profit per winning share before fees. Separately, the 87-cent price represents an approximately 87% implied probability of a Montana State victory. Converting that probability to American odds gives an approximate equivalent of -669 before trading fees.
That implied price is still expensive, but it is somewhat more favorable than the traditional moneyline available at bet365. Idaho “Yes” shares were listed at 15 cents, reflecting the market’s much lower expectation of a Vandals win. The Bobcats’ injuries make this less attractive as a matchup than a fully healthy Montana State side would present, but they do not outweigh the undefeated team’s overall edge and Idaho’s season-long results.
Montana State should leave Moscow with the victory, although the absences make the margin less certain than the outright market suggests. My pick remains Montana State to win the game outright.
The distinction between winning and covering is important here. A one-point Bobcats victory would settle the outright contract successfully, even though it would fall well short of the sportsbook spread. That is why I prefer the winner market with the offensive absences in play. New traders can find the current offer through our Kalshi promo code before entering the market.
Last week, Patrick Duchien stepped in and tallied 281 total yards and three touchdowns. Colson Coon took 18 rushes for 199 yards while Carter Dahlke serves as the No. 1 receiver, catching seven passes for 117 yards and a touchdown.
Ryan Potts is a veteran football and baseball content creator. He was previously a credentialed NFL media member, covering the draft, combine, and Super Bowl. He has been featured on Atlanta sports talk radio and Arizona student radio. Ryan is a journalism graduate from the University of Arizona.
