Miami vs Notre Dame Odds & Spread After Malachi Toney Injury
By Brady Trettenero in College Football
Published:
- Updated Miami vs Notre Dame odds following the Malachi Toney injury news
- Miami visits Notre Dame on Saturday, Nov. 7 in a top-15 CFP matchup
- See how the spread compares with the opener and what the injury means for Miami’s national title outlook
Miami’s top playmaker is headed for surgery days before the biggest road trip of the season. Malachi Toney suffered a high ankle sprain in Wednesday’s practice, according to Pete Thamel.
It’s a brutal blow for the Canes. Miami sits No. 1 in the College Football Playoff rankings and visits a Notre Dame team ranked 11th, though the AP poll has the Irish fourth.
The Irish are favored at home in Saturday’s Miami vs Notre Dame matchup. Here are the updated odds and how the line compares with the opener.
Miami vs Notre Dame Odds
BetMGM lists Notre Dame as a 7-point favorite at -122, with Miami +7 at -108. The Irish need to win by eight or more to cover the spread, and a seven-point win is a push.
On the moneyline, Notre Dame’s -286 price carries an implied win probability of about 74%. Miami pays +230 to win outright, or roughly 30% implied.
The total sits at 55.5, with the juice tilted toward the Under at -125. Kickoff is 7:30 p.m. ET in South Bend, with NBC and Peacock carrying the broadcast.
Odds as of Nov. 4 at 8:02 p.m. ET at BetMGM. New customers can claim the BetMGM promo code and get a bonus to bet on college football.
Miami vs Notre Dame Prediction Market Prices
Kalshi traders see it a little closer. As of 8:04 p.m. ET Wednesday, a YES contract on Notre Dame cost 72¢, while Miami sat at 29¢.
These are straight-up win markets, not spread bets. Each contract pays $1 if your team wins.
Malachi Toney Injury Update
Toney got hurt in Wednesday’s practice. Thamel reported it’s a high ankle sprain that will require surgery, and recovery typically takes at least four weeks.
Miami is targeting a return in time for the College Football Playoff. That timeline points toward the postseason, not South Bend.
His production won’t be easy to replace. Toney has 73 catches for 1,027 yards and 13 touchdowns through eight games.
QB Darian Mensah will now lean more on Cooper Barkate and Daylyn Upshaw. How he spreads the ball without his top target is the biggest question in this game.
Notre Dame is trending the other way. The Irish expect Leonard Moore back after he missed the Navy game.
How the Miami vs Notre Dame Spread Has Moved
Notre Dame was a 3.5-point favorite at DraftKings in our opening Week 10 odds. By Tuesday, BetMGM had the Irish at -5.5. After Wednesday’s Toney injury news, that spread stood at -7.
The Irish were already drawing support before the injury. Miami now faces a tougher assignment without its leading receiver, while BetMGM’s total has fallen from 57.5 on Tuesday to 55.5.
Our early Miami vs Notre Dame prediction backed the Irish -5.5. I still favor Notre Dame, but the value of that earlier number matters: a seven-point win would cash the original pick and only push at the updated spread.
Miami National Title Odds
Miami sits at +600 to win it all in the CFP National Championship Odds at BetMGM. That’s an implied probability of 14.3%.
Toney’s injury stings now, but the Hurricanes’ title hopes rest on getting him back for the playoff.
Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
