College Football Picks Today: Week 11 Predictions & Best Bets (Nov. 14)

• Two top-10 SEC teams face hostile road environments this Saturday
• I am targeting short road numbers backed by strong recent form
• See below for my college football picks today

Week 11 serves up a loaded Saturday slate with major AP Top 25 implications. Several ranked contenders hit the road in hostile environments, and the market has moved sharply on more than one of these games since the week began.

The SEC carries most of the weight, with No. 9 Tennessee visiting Texas A&M and No. 8 Texas heading to No. 24 LSU. Out west, No. 2 Utah travels to the desert to face No. 22 Arizona, which is coming off a thrilling one-point win.

Two of my picks need a road win, but the third can cash even if the favorite wins by a field goal. Prices are moving, so compare the latest college football odds before you lock anything in.

College Football Picks Today

All three prices are from BetMGM as of 1:10 p.m. ET on Nov. 13. Two picks are short road favorites and one is a road underdog getting four points, so every game here sits close to a field goal. If you need a book, my guide to the best college football betting apps breaks down your options.

College Football Picks Today #1: Tennessee -2.5 vs Texas A&M

• Pick: Tennessee -2.5 (-114 at BetMGM)

Tennessee enters College Station playing its best football, coming off a 34-6 rout of Kentucky in which it ran for 240 yards. DeSean Bishop powers that ground game with 1,066 yards and 13 rushing touchdowns, giving the Vols a reliable way to finish drives.

The Vols average 32.2 points and 393.9 yards per game, and their 96.7% red zone rate dwarfs Texas A&M’s 79.5% mark. Tennessee’s pass rush has also piled up 39 sacks, which should stifle an Aggies attack posting just 25.9 points per contest.

What loses this bet is Texas A&M controlling the clock with its 1,449-yard rushing attack and keeping Bishop on the sideline. A turnover or two could flip a game this tight, but Tennessee’s +5 turnover differential makes me comfortable laying the short number.

College Football Picks Today #2: Texas +4 vs LSU

• Pick: Texas +4 (-105 at BetMGM)

Texas has its passing game in rhythm, with Arch Manning throwing six touchdown passes and zero interceptions across the last two wins. The Longhorns score 31.1 points per game and convert 94.1% of their red zone trips, so they can trade punches with anyone.

LSU is coming off a 31-13 loss to Alabama, even though it outgained the Crimson Tide 457-285. The Tigers move the ball, averaging 504.1 yards and 36.9 points per game, but that result shows they can struggle to turn yards into points.

The risk is LSU finally cashing in on its yardage while converting third downs at its 50.0% clip. Both teams sit at -4 in turnover differential, so a Texas giveaway that sets up a short field is the likeliest way this slips away. I still like four points with the sharper red zone offense.

College Football Picks Today #3: Utah -2.5 vs Arizona

• Pick: Utah -2.5 (-114 at BetMGM)

Utah heads to Tucson after beating BYU 28-20 and intercepting four passes. Devon Dampier is a true dual threat with 20 passing touchdowns and seven more on the ground, and the Utes average 37.4 points and 468.1 yards per game.

Utah also converts 53.1% of its third downs and has run for 1,939 yards, a profile that lets it shorten the game on the road. Its +5 turnover differential compares well to Arizona’s -1 mark, which matters for a favorite laying fewer than three points.

What sinks this pick is Arizona carrying the momentum from its 29-28 win over TCU into a home shootout. The Wildcats average 34.0 points and 454.0 yards per game, so they can steal this if they win the turnover battle. I trust Utah’s ball security to hold up.