College Football Playoff Elimination Scenarios: Week 11 Games That Could Change the CFP Bracket

• LSU faces a fourth-loss cliff when No. 6 Texas visits Baton Rouge
• No. 18 USC needs a signature road win at No. 9 Indiana
• See below for every Week 11 College Football Playoff elimination scenario

Week 10 flipped the board. Notre Dame beat Miami, Georgia took over at No. 1, and Oregon jumped from No. 23 to No. 16 with three losses.

The committee has no loss limit, so every “out” below is a practical verdict on a résumé, not a mathematical one.

In a projection using the Nov. 10 rankings (not the committee’s own bracket), No. 11 Kentucky is the last team in the College Football Playoff bracket. No. 12 Texas Tech is first out because No. 24 Boise State takes the fifth automatic bid.

Jump to: At a glance | Texas–LSU | USC–Indiana | More playoff scenarios

Week 11 CFP Elimination Games at a Glance

Here’s who has the least room to lose this weekend.

Texas at LSU: Tigers Face a Playoff Must-Win

• LSU must win to keep a realistic at-large path. Texas would keep a three-loss argument, but not its comfortable spot inside the field.

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC

LSU is No. 21 at 6-3. Lose, and the Tigers fall to 6-4 with an 8-4 ceiling, which ends any realistic at-large hope even if the math says otherwise. Win, and a 9-3 path stays open with a trip to No. 8 Tennessee still ahead.

Texas is a different story. The Longhorns already own wins over No. 8 Tennessee, No. 19 Ole Miss, No. 20 Ohio State and No. 22 Missouri, and that’s the backbone of a three-loss argument.

A loss would still sting. Texas would drop to 7-3, and beating Arkansas and Texas A&M afterward wouldn’t guarantee a thing.

USC at Indiana Playoff Scenarios: Trojans Need a Road Statement

• A loss puts USC in severe danger, though UCLA still offers a rescue shot. Indiana would slide toward the bubble, not out of the race.

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Indiana is No. 9 at 8-1 and 5-1 in the Big Ten. USC is No. 18 at 7-2 and 4-2.

This is step one of a two-step rescue for the Trojans. Win out, and they finish 10-2 with road wins over Indiana and No. 4 UCLA, plus their 30-18 win over Ohio State.

Lose, and USC sits at 7-3 with a 9-3 ceiling. The UCLA game keeps that from being a death sentence.

Indiana’s problem is quieter. It has no win over a current CFP top-25 team, and USC is its last ranked opponent. Lose, and a 10-2 finish would have nothing signature on it.

More Week 11 College Football Playoff Elimination Games

Baylor at BYU: Cougars Can’t Afford Loss No. 3

• A third loss likely ends BYU’s realistic at-large position, even with its Notre Dame win.

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, FOX

BYU slipped just one spot to No. 10 after losing at Utah, and its win over No. 5 Notre Dame still carries weight. Lose to 6-3 Baylor, and the Cougars cap out at 9-3 with unranked Kansas and Cincinnati left.

Florida at Kentucky: The Last Team In Has No Cushion

• A home loss to Florida likely knocks Kentucky out of the at-large picture.

Saturday, 6:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

Kentucky’s losses came 45-17 to Alabama and 34-6 to Tennessee. Add a defeat to 5-4 Florida, with only Missouri and Louisville left, and a 9-3 finish becomes a hard sell.

Alabama’s trip to Vanderbilt isn’t the same. The No. 3 Tide own ranked wins over Kentucky, South Carolina and LSU.

Michigan at Oregon: Ducks Face a Fourth-Loss Cliff

• A fourth loss effectively ends Oregon’s at-large hopes.

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, FS1

The 41-28 win at Ohio State revived the Ducks. Lose to Michigan, and the ceiling drops to 8-4 with no ranked opponent left to repair it.

Houston at Colorado: Friday Night Trap

• A loss to 3-6 Colorado likely ends Houston’s at-large path.

Friday, 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

No. 14 Houston is 7-2. A loss caps the Cougars at 9-3 with West Virginia and Baylor left, neither ranked.