College Football Playoff Scenarios: What Week 10 Means for the CFP Bracket

• Week 10 brings six games with real weight in the CFP bracket
• No. 11 Notre Dame hosts No. 1 Miami with its Top-12 path at stake
• Read below for the College Football Playoff scenarios riding on Saturday

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The committee finally showed its hand Tuesday. Miami sits No. 1 in the first CFP rankings, with Georgia, Utah and Indiana filling out the top four.

Those four spots come with first-round byes, and three of those teams draw ranked opponents this weekend.

These Week 10 College Football Playoff scenarios center on six games that can change the College Football Playoff bracket and the national championship odds without settling either. Here is what each result would mean for the contenders.

CFP Rankings Entering Week 10

Here’s where the committee slots the teams in Saturday’s biggest games.

Miami vs Notre Dame Playoff Scenarios

• Notre Dame would strengthen its playoff position by beating No. 1 Miami; a loss would put its Top-12 place at risk. Miami would remain in contention either way.

7:30 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock

Notre Dame’s path is simple. Finish in the committee’s Top 12 and the Irish are in, but at No. 11 there’s no conference title to fall back on.

Miami has more breathing room at 6-0 in ACC play, a game clear of Wake Forest.

The bigger worry is Malachi Toney. He’s expected to miss Saturday after a high ankle injury in practice, with reports saying he needed surgery.

Toney leads Miami with 73 catches, 1,027 yards and 13 touchdowns, and Notre Dame allows just 13.4 points and 236.3 yards per game.

Miami still averages 47.6 points and 534.9 yards per game. Without Toney, that strength-on-strength matchup gets a lot harder to call.

BYU vs Utah: CFP Scenarios and Big 12 Title Race

• Utah would build a two-game conference cushion over BYU with a win. A BYU victory would leave both with one Big 12 loss and give the Cougars the head-to-head edge.

Noon ET, ABC

Utah is 5-0 in Big 12 play. BYU and Texas Tech sit one game back at 4-1.

The BYU vs Utah odds offer another view of this rivalry, but Utah has already earned its No. 3 ranking. Six of their eight wins came by 14 or more points, and the defense allows 15.9 points per game.

BYU bounced back from its lone loss at UCF by beating Arizona State 27-20.

Ohio State Playoff Chances: What the Oregon Game Means

• A win would help Ohio State recover ground in the CFP race; a third loss would leave its at-large hopes in serious trouble. Oregon would face an even steeper climb with a fourth defeat.

3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Ohio State is No. 12, right on the cut line. That doesn’t make the Buckeyes the last team in. Automatic bids, including the one for the highest-ranked team from the other six FBS conferences, can land outside the Top 12.

OSU is also still in the Big Ten race at 4-1. That’s one loss behind unbeaten UCLA and level with Indiana in the loss column.

The worry is at QB. Freshman Luke Fahey made his first career start in last week’s 30-18 loss at USC, going 21-of-38 for 260 yards.

Oregon has its own QB headache. Dante Moore isn’t expected back this season, leaving Dylan Raiola as the starter. At 5-3, a fourth loss would leave the Ducks with very little room in the at-large race.

SEC Playoff Picture: Three Games Shake Up the Race

Georgia and Kentucky lead the SEC at 5-1. Alabama and Ole Miss are 4-2, with LSU, Missouri, Tennessee and Texas all at 3-2, and the top two records go to Atlanta.

Georgia vs Ole Miss Playoff Implications

• Georgia would protect its SEC lead with a win. Ole Miss would add a top-two victory with an upset; a third loss would make the Rebels’ at-large path much harder.

7:30 p.m. ET, ABC

The Dawgs allow 14.9 points and 86.0 rushing yards per game. Ole Miss scores 37.1 a night but gives up 148.9 yards on the ground.

Alabama vs LSU: Who Can Stay in the CFP Race?

• The winner would add a ranked victory to its playoff case. The loser would have three defeats and much less room for another slip, particularly LSU starting outside the Top 12.

3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

The Alabama vs LSU odds frame a game between teams with different conference records: Bama is 4-2 to LSU’s 3-2. LSU’s back half is brutal, with Texas, Tennessee and Arkansas still to come.

LSU returns from its bye after Sam Leavitt threw for 387 yards and three touchdowns without an interception in the Oct. 24 win at Auburn, 38-17.

Texas vs Missouri Playoff Scenarios

• The winner would stay in the SEC chase with two conference losses. The loser would drop to three and likely need help to recover in the CFP race.

Noon ET, ESPN

Both sit at 3-2 in the SEC, so the loser drops to three conference losses. Mizzou forced four turnovers in last week’s 34-10 win over Arkansas.

Texas still has LSU, Arkansas and Texas A&M left, while Missouri visits Georgia next week.